Opinion: The 8% Builder Rally Does Little for Small Investors
Martin Maxwell on the post-election housing rally: builders get paid first, and a small investor's numbers barely moved. What to underwrite now.


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Martin Maxwell on the post-election housing rally: builders get paid first, and a small investor's numbers barely moved. What to underwrite now.
By Market
Markets Map →Metros where permits, jobs or prices just made an unusual move.
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Nov 6 · 1:29 PM PTU.S.Market DataNAHB Apartment Index Falls to 41 as Census Permits Rise 6%NAHB's apartment developer index fell five points to 41 in Q3, all four parts below 50, while Census permits for 5+ unit buildings rose 6.3%. Read full story →
Nov 6 · 11:14 AM PTMilwaukee, WIFinanceMilwaukee County Adopts $798,790 Levy for Regional Planning in 2027Milwaukee County's board adopted a $798,790 levy as its share of the regional planning commission's $2.34 million 2027 budget, the county's record shows. Read full story →
San Antonio Jumps 67 Spots to Ninth in NAR's Commercial Demand IndexNov 6 · 10:28 AM PTSeveral MarketsMarket Data
Residential Trade Jobs Fall 15,200 in a 165,000-Job OctoberNov 6 · 9:30 AM PTU.S.Market Data
Raman Defeats Bass in L.A. Mayor's Race; SB 79 Timing Is an Early TestNov 6Los Angeles, CAMarket Data
Nov 5U.S.Market DataSellers Held Homes a Record 12 Years, NAR's Buyer Profile FindsNAR's 2026 profile puts first-time buyers at 22% of buyers, up from a record-low 21%; the typical buyer was 58 and sellers had owned 12 years. Read full story →
Nov 5U.S.Finance10-Year Yield Slips to 4.90% After Midterms, Still Above 4.74%The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.90% on Nov. 4, its lowest since Sept. 9, and 16 basis points above the 4.74% level tied to a sub-7% mortgage. Read full story →
Apartment Loans Due by 2028 Near $250B; 2020–22 Floaters Under StrainNov 5U.S.Finance
Brookfield Walks From $360M Loan on a 95%-Occupied L.A. TowerNov 5Los Angeles, CAFinance
Fannie Reportedly Assumes Flat NYC Stabilized Rents; FHFA Disputes ItNov 5New YorkFinanceCreate a Free Account
This Week's Data
The Week Ahead →Most Covered This Week
On Zillow, Redfin, Realtor.com and Homes.com, with break-even rent on Zillow search results: cap rate · cash-on-cash · DSCR
Market Data
What borrowing costs today, where rent pays the most against price, and the lines that frame both.
Source for the 30-year rate: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Every other figure names its own source and date.
The 30-year rate is 2.32 points above the 10-year yield. The historical norm is about 1.7 points. That extra spread is what lenders charge for risk.
| Date | 30-Yr Mortgage | 10-Yr Treasury | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | 6.37% | 4.41% | 1.96 pp |
| Jun 4, 2026 | 6.48% | 4.47% | 2.01 pp |
| Jul 2, 2026 | 6.43% | 4.49% | 1.94 pp |
| Aug 6, 2026 | 6.69% | 4.69% | 2.00 pp |
| Sep 3, 2026 | 6.71% | 4.77% | 1.94 pp |
| Oct 1, 2026 | 7.28% | 5.24% | 2.04 pp |
| Nov 5, 2026 | 7.18% | 4.84% | 2.34 pp |
Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (Nov 5, 2026) · U.S. Treasury 10-year yield (Nov 6, 2026).
Each bar runs from the 5-year low to the 5-year high. The filled dot is today; the ring, where shown, is six months ago.
| Measure | 5-Yr Low | Latest | 5-Yr High | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Yr Mortgage | 2.98% | 7.18% | 7.79% | Nov 5, 2026 |
| FHFA Home Price Index | 353 | 450 | 452 | Aug 1, 2026 |
| Fed Funds Rate | 0.08% | 3.88% | 5.33% | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Unemployment | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.5% | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Housing Starts (K) | 1,182 | 1,221 | 1,807 | Sep 1, 2026 |
Freddie Mac · Census · BLS · FHFA · NY Fed · trailing 5 years to Nov 5, 2026.
Cap rate proxy: a year of HUD Fair Market Rent on a three-bedroom home, less 50% for operating costs, divided by the home value. Darker tiles yield more. Tap a state to open its page.
| State | Cap Rate |
|---|---|
| Illinois | 3.9% |
| West Virginia | 3.7% |
| Delaware | 3.6% |
| New Jersey | 3.6% |
| Florida | 3.6% |
| Iowa | 3.4% |
| Indiana | 3.4% |
| Oklahoma | 3.4% |
| Michigan | 3.4% |
| Texas | 3.4% |
| Pennsylvania | 3.4% |
| Maryland | 3.3% |
| Nebraska | 3.3% |
| Vermont | 3.3% |
| Louisiana | 3.3% |
| Minnesota | 3.3% |
| Mississippi | 3.3% |
| Missouri | 3.3% |
| Kansas | 3.3% |
| Maine | 3.2% |
| Arkansas | 3.2% |
| Connecticut | 3.1% |
| Kentucky | 3.1% |
| Virginia | 3.1% |
| Alabama | 3.1% |
| Georgia | 3.1% |
| South Carolina | 3.0% |
| District of Columbia | 3.0% |
| Massachusetts | 3.0% |
| South Dakota | 2.9% |
| Arizona | 2.9% |
| North Carolina | 2.9% |
| Alaska | 2.9% |
| New York | 2.9% |
| New Mexico | 2.9% |
| Nevada | 2.9% |
| New Hampshire | 2.8% |
| Tennessee | 2.8% |
| Colorado | 2.8% |
| Rhode Island | 2.8% |
| Montana | 2.8% |
| Oregon | 2.8% |
| Ohio | 2.7% |
| Wisconsin | 2.7% |
| North Dakota | 2.6% |
| Washington | 2.6% |
| Hawaii | 2.6% |
| Idaho | 2.5% |
| California | 2.5% |
| Wyoming | 2.5% |
| Utah | 2.3% |
HUD Fair Market Rents (FY 2027) and ZIP-level home values · Nov 7, 2026. State figures weight each metro by population. Tiles are a grid, not geography.
The same measure as the state map, in metros over 250,000 people. It compares rent with price and does not say where to buy.
| Metro | Cap Rate |
|---|---|
| Peoria, IL | 4.8% |
| Scranton-Wilkes-Barre, PA | 4.1% |
| Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL | 4.1% |
| Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL | 4.0% |
| North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota, FL | 4.0% |
| Port St. Lucie, FL | 4.0% |
| Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL | 3.9% |
| Lubbock, TX | 3.9% |
| Fayetteville, NC | 3.9% |
| Syracuse, NY | 3.9% |
HUD Fair Market Rents (FY 2027) and ZIP-level home values · Nov 7, 2026.
Fastest five-year home price growth among metros over 250,000 people. Bars start at zero.
| # | Metro | 5-Yr Price Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ | 68.9% |
| 2 | Trenton-Princeton, NJ | 64.1% |
| 3 | Syracuse, NY | 64.1% |
| 4 | Rockford, IL | 63.8% |
| 5 | Knoxville, TN | 63.5% |
| 6 | Savannah, GA | 63.5% |
| 7 | Rochester, NY | 61.9% |
| 8 | Charleston-North Charleston, SC | 61.6% |
FHFA House Price Index · 5-year change · 2026 Q2.
Composite of serious delinquency, entrenched stress, forbearance and REO share. Top 8 states, 2025 Q4.
| State | Index | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Louisiana | 30.0 | Elevated |
| West Virginia | 29.1 | Moderate |
| District of Columbia | 28.8 | Moderate |
| Mississippi | 25.6 | Moderate |
| Alabama | 18.4 | Moderate |
| Maryland | 17.5 | Low |
| Texas | 17.5 | Low |
| Illinois | 17.5 | Low |
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loan data, REI Prime index · quarterly, 2025 Q4.
Meters show where a reading sits against the line that matters.
Elevated. Lenders are pricing in extra risk beyond the Treasury move.
Builders hold more inventory than buyers are absorbing.
A typical all-cash yield sits well below the cost of debt, so leverage costs you cash flow unless rents or price terms beat the average.
Freddie Mac PMMS (Nov 5, 2026) · U.S. Treasury 10-year (Nov 6, 2026) · Census New Residential Sales (Sep 2026) · HUD Fair Market Rents (FY 2027) and ZIP-level home values · Nov 7, 2026.
Five county numbers tell you whether it's a buyer's market where you buy. The one in every headline, inventory, says the least about where a market stands.
Books

Second edition, updated for 2026. Follow one investor from a layoff scare to five units in 24 months, on a $78,000 salary and without quitting his job. Then run the same five PRIME phases on your first deal.
Book Reviews
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Work the five phases in order. Each one has three drawers: Mindset, Strategies and Tools.
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Cap rate, cash-on-cash and DSCR for any listing or address. Pick what you're buying for, and see the numbers in one click.
Cap rate, cash-on-cash and DSCR, computed live on Zillow, Redfin, Realtor.com and Homes.com, with break-even rent right on Zillow search results.
Federal-data dashboards for every U.S. metro. Cap rate, rents, migration and permits, updated as each agency publishes.
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Learn · the latest across every phase
Step-by-step paths through each PRIME phase.
Research12 min readHow to Analyze the Housing Market: The Investor's Guide to Federal Data and Market Cycles
Manage2–4 weeksThe Tenant Screening System That Reduced Our Vacancy Rate to 2.1%
Expand1.5–2 hoursPortfolio Scaling and 1031 Exchanges: Growing Beyond Your First Few Properties
View allAll guides→Analysis for investors who want substance, not hype.
Research8 min read · Nov 6How to Tell If It's a Buyer's Market: 5 County Numbers, and the One That Misleads
Research9 min read · Nov 3Fair Market Rent 2027 by Metro: Why HUD's Number Fell in Dallas and Rose 13% in Chicago
Research9 min read · Nov 1Rent Growth Assumption for 2027: Why 3% Is Too High for Most Big Metros
View allAll articles→Real-stakes scenarios. Pick a side, then defend your call.
Intermediate6 min read · Nov 6Chicago Has Fewer Jobs Than a Year Ago. Rents Still Rose 4.7%. Which Do You Underwrite?
Intermediate5 min read · Nov 4Your Metro's Voucher Rent Fell 6%. Your Section 8 Tenant Renews in March.
Intermediate6 min read · Nov 2Tampa Prices Stopped Falling. Buy Now, or Wait a Quarter?
View allAll scenarios→Bite-sized episodes on mindset, strategy and market moves.
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