Cleveland-Elyria, OH
The Midwest's deepest cash-flow metro. Cap rate proxy 4.7%, median home $201,000, HPI up 54.0% over five years. 5 Ohio counties, 2,079,759 residents, and a supply pipeline constrained enough to hold yields.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
affordable
Price to income
2.93×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Ohio
- 2.67×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×-0.50
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
21.2%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Ohio
- 21.2%=
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%-2.1
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
4.7%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Ohio
- 5.0%
- vs U.S.
- 4.3%+0.3
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
rent-favored
Rent vs buy
1.27×
$1,254/mo rent · $988/mo buy
Cost ratio for the same household. Below 0.85× means buying is materially cheaper; above 1.15× means renting wins. Strategy-dependent — a buy-favored metro is a wholesale-flip market, a rent-favored metro is a turnkey-rental market.
- vs Ohio
- 1.30×
- vs U.S.
- 1.09×+0.18
Benchmark
Monthly rent (HUD FMR 2BR) ÷ monthly buy cost (ACS median home value × 80% × 30y at MORTGAGE30US)
shrinking
Net migration
-0.10%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Ohio
- -0.03%
- vs U.S.
- 0.03%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
1.82
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Ohio
- 1.63+0.20
- vs U.S.
- 3.53
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
healthy
Unemployment
3.8%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Ohio
- 5.0%-1.2
- vs U.S.
- 4.5%-0.7
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
balanced buyer mix
Investor loan share
13.1%
22,287 purchase loans · 24.9% denial rate · 2024
Share of financed home purchases going to investors. Above ~15% means landlords are outbidding owner-occupants; below ~8% is owner-dominated.
Benchmark
Investor purchase loans ÷ all purchase loans (CFPB HMDA LAR, annual)
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Cleveland
Cleveland is the cash-flow metro the growth-market crowd keeps skipping — and the federal data says they shouldn't. Price-to-income 2.93, cap rate proxy 4.7%, median home $201,000, across 2,079,759 residents and 5 Ohio counties. Median household income sits at $68,507 with unemployment at 3.8%.
The FHFA HPI is up 54.0% over five years — strong for a legacy industrial metro, driven by a low starting price base rather than speculative demand. Builders pulled 3,759 permits TTM at 1.8 per 1,000 residents — well below the national pace, which is exactly what keeps cap rates from compressing. Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom is $1,208/month. Net migration was −2,094 IRS returns — essentially flat, with most movement being intra-Ohio reshuffling rather than out-of-state flight.
The metro organizes around two corridors. Cuyahoga County (Cleveland proper, 1.26M residents) holds the Cleveland Clinic, University Hospitals, and the downtown lakefront redevelopment — the institutional anchors keeping the labor market tight. Lorain County is the western growth flank: lower land costs along I-90 are pulling builders west. Medina County is the affluent suburban commute play with the metro's highest household incomes. Lake and Geauga counties are the quiet eastern flanks — established, higher-priced, building very little.
So what does an investor do?
- Cash flow: The 4.7% cap rate proxy is the strongest in the Midwest peer set — stronger than Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, or Columbus. A $201,000 entry point with $1,208/month FMR is math that works on day one for buy-and-hold operators.
- Appreciation: The 54.0% five-year HPI gain is real but started from a low base. This is steady compounding, not hockey-stick growth. Expect continued positive trajectory without Sun Belt-style volatility.
- Out-of-state: Cleveland offers the deepest cash-flow math in the Ohio peer set. The supply pipeline is constrained enough to protect yields, and the Cleveland Clinic's capital budget provides structural labor demand that most Midwest metros don't have.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+54.0%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+5.9% YoY
$201,000 median home value
Cleveland home prices climbed 54.0% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a steady appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change of 5.9% is still running hot.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Cleveland (teal) tracked below both the Ohio state average and the national average for the entire 6-year window — a structural discount, not a dip.
- 02The gap between Cleveland and U.S. metros widened after 2022: national prices flattened while Cleveland kept climbing, compressing the spread from ~70 index points to ~95.
- 03Cleveland's sharpest quarterly jump came in Q2 2024 (+11 points), the biggest single-quarter gain in the series — driven by inventory compression in Cuyahoga and Lorain counties.
- 04Ohio metros (blue) run roughly 30 index points above Cleveland, reflecting Columbus and Cincinnati pulling the state average higher.
- 05The 5-year appreciation is +54% — stronger than Pittsburgh (+42.4%) and San Antonio (+41.5%), competitive with Columbus (+54.6%) and Indianapolis (+53%).
Where the value tier sits — top 5 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geauga County | $305,100 | $100,783 | 3.03× | moderate |
| Medina County | $268,000 | $92,660 | 2.89× | affordable |
| Lorain County | $207,200 | $70,693 | 2.93× | affordable |
| Lake County | $199,900 | $77,952 | 2.56× | affordable |
| Cuyahoga County | $183,200 | $62,823 | 2.92× | affordable |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Government-sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,208
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
21.2% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 21.2% of their income — 2.1 points below the U.S. average (23.3%) right at Ohio (21.2%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $995 | $11.9K | 17.4% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,208 | $14.5K | 21.2% | comfortable |
| 3 BR | $1,553 | $18.6K | 27.2% | moderate |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Government source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
3.8%
BLS LAUS · latest month
Cleveland's labor market is healthy, with unemployment running at 3.8% — 0.7 points below the U.S. metros average (4.5%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
3.8%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$68,507
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
3,759
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+28.6% year-over-year
1.82 permits per 1,000 residents
Cleveland pulled 3,759 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 28.6% year-over-year. That works out to 1.82 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.53.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
2,503
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
66
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
1,190
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 5 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01Cuyahoga County dominates with 1,601 permits — 42.6% of the metro total — up 43.2% year-over-year, signaling renewed developer confidence in the urban core.
- 02Lorain County is the surprise runner-up at 1,183 permits (+33.4% YoY), driven by lower land costs and suburban spillover from western Cuyahoga.
- 03Medina County (435 permits) and Lake County (364) are holding steady — both under 2% YoY change — reflecting mature suburban markets with limited greenfield land.
- 04Geauga County is the smallest contributor at 176 permits (-3.3% YoY), consistent with its rural character and higher price point ($305,100 median home value).
- 05The top two counties (Cuyahoga + Lorain) account for 74% of all metro permits, a concentration pattern typical of legacy Rust Belt metros where suburban development has shifted west.
How to read the map
- 01The darkest shading concentrates in Cuyahoga County along the Lake Erie shoreline — Cleveland proper is the construction center of gravity for the metro.
- 02Lorain County, directly west of Cuyahoga, shows the second-highest concentration — the I-90 corridor connecting Elyria and Lorain to downtown Cleveland drives the suburban development pattern.
- 03The eastern counties (Lake, Geauga) are visibly lighter, reflecting lower permit volumes and more established suburban/rural character.
- 04Medina County in the southwest corner shows moderate activity — its position between Cleveland and Akron gives it access to two employment centers.
- 05The compact 5-county footprint means development is concentrated rather than sprawling — a structural advantage for investors who want proximity to the employment core.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cuyahoga County | 1,256,620 | $62,823 | $183,200 | 1,601 | +43.2% |
| 2 | Lorain County | 313,101 | $70,693 | $207,200 | 1,183 | +33.4% |
| 3 | Lake County | 232,236 | $77,952 | $199,900 | 364 | |
| 4 | Medina County | 182,347 | $92,660 | $268,000 | 435 | +0.7% |
| 5 | Geauga County | 95,455 | $100,783 | $305,100 | 176 |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Cleveland by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Cleveland is closest in size to Las Vegas, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, San Antonio.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Cleveland is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Cleveland | 2.08M | $69K | $201K | 2.93× | 4.7% | +54.0% | 1.81 | -0.10% | 3.8% |
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV | 2.27M | $74K | $401K | 5.43× | 3.4% | +52.3% | 5.87 | +0.45% | 5.2% |
Pittsburgh, PA | 2.37M | $74K | $205K | 2.77× | 5.0% | +42.4% | 2.17 | -0.13% | 3.6% |
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN | 2.11M | $77K | $244K | 3.17× | 4.7% | +53.0% | 5.91 | +0.02% | 2.5% |
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX | 2.57M | $74K | $259K | 3.48× | 4.3% | +41.5% | 3.93 | +0.45% | 3.7% |
Columbus, OH | 2.14M | $80K | $274K | 3.44× | 4.1% | +54.6% | 7.54 | -0.08% | 3.6% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
-2,094
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
-0.10% of metro population
7,562 from top origin
Cleveland recorded −2,094 net IRS tax returns — a −0.10% movement on a metro this size. That is statistical churn, not a structural exodus. Gross flows show roughly equal volumes in and out, with intra-Ohio movement (Summit, Lorain, and Franklin counties) driving most of the activity.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Cuyahoga County, OH | 7,562 |
| Summit County, OH | 3,069 |
| Lorain County, OH | 2,416 |
| Lake County, OH | 2,316 |
| Medina County, OH | 1,636 |
| Franklin County, OH | 1,214 |
Who lives in Cleveland
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 41.3
- Owner-occupancy
- 65.0%
- Bachelor's+
- 30.7%
Cleveland mature Midwest metro: Median age 41.3, 65.0% owner-occupancy 30.7% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 44.7% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $68,507
- Median age
- 41.3
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 30.7%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 65.0%
- Vacancy rate
- 10.8%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 44.7%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Jan 2026 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Jan 2026 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 29, 2026