Knoxville, TN
**HIGHEST 5-YEAR HPI IN THE QUEUE.** Knoxville ran **+77.4% over five years** — beating every other T5 metro by a wide margin and **#1 of 10 in Tennessee** (yes, beating Nashville). $255K median, P/I 3.66, R/I 25.3% moderate, cap proxy 4.49% workable. **Permits 9.10/1k strong**, **YoY +56.7% massive acceleration**. Migration +1,398 steady. 8-county metro anchored by Knox County. The Smoky Mountains gateway, U Tennessee, Oak Ridge National Lab — Eastern Tennessee's secret rocket.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
3.66×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Tennessee
- 3.49×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
moderate
Rent to income
25.3%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Tennessee
- 24.3%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
4.5%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Tennessee
- 4.4%+0.0
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%+0.1
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
steady
Net migration
+0.16%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Tennessee
- 0.13%+0.03
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%+0.12
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
9.10
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Tennessee
- 4.59+4.51
- vs U.S.
- 3.49+5.61
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
—
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Tennessee
- 3.5%
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Knoxville
Knoxville is the highest 5-year HPI metro in the queue, full stop. Across 8 counties — Knox at the core plus Blount, Anderson, Loudon, Roane, Campbell, Morgan, and Union — the metro packs 884,000 residents with a household income of $69,734 (Census ACS) and a median home value of $255,300. The HUD Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom is $1,471. The House Price Index ran +77.4% over five years (FHFA HPI) — the strongest 5-year HPI of any metro in the queue, beating the U.S. metros average of +34.3% by 43 percentage points.
The interesting fact is that Knoxville beats Nashville inside Tennessee. Knoxville ranks #1 of 10 by 5-year HPI in TN — the Eastern Tennessee Smoky Mountains cluster has been the secret rocket of the entire state. #3 by population, #2 by permits. The price-to-income ratio is 3.66 (moderate), the rent-to-income is 25.3% (just over comfortable), and the cap rate proxy is 4.49% (workable). Recent year-over-year HPI is +2.36% — moderate, slowing. The Sun Belt cooldown has reached Knoxville, but the 5-year compound is so steep that the YoY tap on the brakes is welcome.
The 8-county geometry is broadly hot — most counties build at >5/1k:
- Knox County (481K pop, $279,700 MHV) leads with 5,244 permits TTM = 10.89 per 1,000 — Knoxville proper plus West Knoxville (Farragut, Hardin Valley), Powell, Halls, Cedar Bluff, Bearden. 65% of the metro pipeline.
- Loudon County (56K pop, $292,600 MHV) issues 861 permits = 15.51 per 1,000 — the density leader of the metro. The Tellico Lake retirement/affluent corridor.
- Blount County (136K pop, $275,700 MHV) builds 869 permits = 6.39 per 1,000 — Maryville, Alcoa, Townsend, Walland. Gateway to Great Smoky Mountains National Park.
- Anderson County (77K pop, $215,800 MHV) issues 428 permits = 5.53 per 1,000 — Oak Ridge, Clinton. Anchored by Oak Ridge National Lab and Y-12 National Security Complex.
- Roane, Campbell, Union, Morgan combined add ~650 permits — small rural fringe counties (Morgan built ZERO).
Knoxville runs 9.10 permits per 1,000 residents — 2.6x the national 3.49 and well above the Tennessee state median of 4.59. The 62% single-family / 37% 5+ multifamily mix is balanced with significant downtown apartment construction. Permit YoY +56.7% — massive sustained acceleration, similar to Birmingham (+59.7%).
What's changing: net IRS migration is +1,398 returns (IRS SOI) — +0.16% of population, steady inflow above the Tennessee state median of +0.13%. Knoxville pulls cost refugees from Nashville (much cheaper), Atlanta (much cheaper), and the Northeast. Owner-occupancy 70.2% (high), bachelor's-or-higher 31.9%, median age 40.5. The labor market is anchored by the University of Tennessee (the state's flagship), Oak Ridge National Lab + Y-12 (the largest federal energy/security research footprint in the South), University of Tennessee Medical Center, Pilot/Flying J Travel Centers, Discovery Inc. (formerly Scripps Networks), Regal Cinemas HQ, and the Smoky Mountains tourism cluster. Federal research + education + tourism + transportation — diversified.
What does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow: Knoxville works at the margin. 4.49% cap proxy on a $255K median is workable, and the migration inflow gives demand support. Look at Knox County's east-side neighborhoods (Holston Hills, Burlington, Park City) and Anderson County (Oak Ridge proper) for $180K-$240K SFR with strong rent ratios. Avoid Loudon County (priced for retirement).
- If you're playing appreciation: Knoxville has already run +77.4% over 5 years, and YoY has cooled to +2.36%. The next 5 years won't compound at +77% — but the structural fundamentals (Oak Ridge, U Tennessee, migration inflow, +56.7% permit acceleration) suggest steady continuation in the +3-5% YoY range.
- If you already own here: Hold. You're sitting on best-in-queue compounding. Don't sell to chase higher caps elsewhere — the structural moat is real (Oak Ridge isn't moving), and the cycle still has runway.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+77.4%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+2.4% YoY
$255,300 median home value
Knoxville home prices climbed 77.4% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a strong appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change of 2.4% suggests steady appreciation continuing.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Knoxville ran **+77.4% over five years** — **the highest 5-year HPI of any metro in the queue**, beating the U.S. metros average (+34.3%) by **43 percentage points**.
- 02**Recent YoY is +2.36%** — moderate, slowing. The Sun Belt cooldown has reached Knoxville, but the 5-year compound is so steep that the YoY tap on the brakes is welcome.
- 03Inside Tennessee, Knoxville ranks **#1 of 10 for 5-year HPI** — **yes, beating Nashville**. The Eastern TN Smoky Mountains cluster has been the secret rocket of the entire state.
- 04U.S. metros ran **+34.3%** over the same window. Knoxville outperformed by ~43 points — best-in-class compounding.
- 05The takeaway: Knoxville is **the highest 5-yr HPI in the queue, full stop**. The Smoky Mountains gateway, Oak Ridge research cluster, U Tennessee, and inflows from Nashville (cost refugees) drove it.
Where the value tier sits — top 5 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loudon County | $292,600 | $80,296 | 3.64× | moderate |
| Knox County | $279,700 | $71,662 | 3.90× | moderate |
| Blount County | $275,700 | $74,607 | 3.70× | moderate |
| Anderson County | $215,800 | $63,171 | 3.42× | moderate |
| Roane County | $212,300 | $66,218 | 3.21× | moderate |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,471
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
25.3% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 25.3% of their income — 2.0 points above the U.S. average (23.3%) 1.1 points above Tennessee (24.3%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,184 | $14.2K | 20.4% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,471 | $17.7K | 25.3% | moderate |
| 3 BR | $1,864 | $22.4K | 32.1% | rent-burdened |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
—
BLS LAUS · latest month
Knoxville's labor market is softening, with unemployment running at —.
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
—
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$69,734
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
8,048
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+56.7% year-over-year
9.10 permits per 1,000 residents
Knoxville pulled 8,048 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 56.7% year-over-year. That works out to 9.10 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
4,978
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
111
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
2,959
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 8 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Knox County leads with 5,244 TTM permits = 10.89 per 1,000** — Knoxville proper plus West Knoxville (Farragut, Hardin Valley), Powell, Halls, the Cedar Bluff and Bearden corridors. **65% of the metro pipeline**.
- 02**Loudon County** (Lenoir City, Tellico Village) issues **861 permits = 15.51 per 1,000** — the **density leader** of the metro. The Tellico Lake retirement/affluent corridor.
- 03**Blount County** (Maryville, Alcoa, Townsend, Walland) builds **869 permits = 6.39 per 1,000** — gateway to Great Smoky Mountains National Park. Strong secondary build.
- 04**Anderson County** (Oak Ridge, Clinton) issues **428 permits = 5.53 per 1,000** — Oak Ridge National Lab anchor.
- 05Knoxville runs **9.10 permits per 1,000 residents** — **2.6x the national 3.49** and well above the Tennessee state median of 4.59. **Permit YoY is +56.7%** — massive sustained acceleration.
How to read the map
- 01**Loudon County (southwest, Tellico Lake) is densest at 15.51 per 1,000** — Lenoir City, Tellico Village, Loudon. The retirement/affluent corridor along the Tennessee River.
- 02**Knox County (the urban core) at 10.89 per 1,000** — Knoxville proper, Farragut, Hardin Valley, Powell, Halls. Large absolute volume (5,244 permits) at high per-capita.
- 03**Blount County (south, Maryville/Alcoa/Smoky Mountains gateway) at 6.39 per 1,000** — gateway to Great Smoky Mountains National Park.
- 04**Anderson County (NW, Oak Ridge) at 5.53 per 1,000** — Oak Ridge National Lab + Y-12 National Security Complex anchor.
- 05**The pattern is broadly hot** — most counties build at >5/1k. Morgan County is the only dead spot (0 permits TTM). Eastern TN is one of the most sustained Sun Belt growth corridors right now.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Knox County | 481,406 | $71,662 | $279,700 | 5,244 | +61.5% |
| 2 | Blount County | 135,951 | $74,607 | $275,700 | 869 | +10.4% |
| 3 | Anderson County | 77,337 | $63,171 | $215,800 | 428 | +27.4% |
| 4 | Loudon County | 55,507 | $80,296 | $292,600 | 861 | +60.0% |
| 5 | Roane County | 53,777 | $66,218 | $212,300 | 370 | +137.2% |
| 6 | Campbell County | 39,397 | $50,260 | $169,500 | 151 | +52.5% |
| 7 | Morgan County | 21,124 | $57,408 | $144,000 | 0 | — |
| 8 | Union County | 19,860 | $61,858 | $186,300 | 125 | +16.8% |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Knoxville by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Best in 1 of 2 comparable metrics
Knoxville is closest in size to Baton Rouge, Bakersfield, Albuquerque, Greenville. best in class on Permit pipeline.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Knoxville is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Knoxville | 0.88M | $70K | $255K | 3.66× | 4.5% | +77.4% | 9.10 | +0.16% | — |
Baton Rouge, LA | 0.87M | $69K | $232K | 3.37× | 4.0% | +27.6% | 5.00 | -0.03% | 3.7% |
Bakersfield, CA | 0.91M | $68K | $311K | 4.59× | 3.7% | +48.5% | 3.25 | +0.02% | — |
Albuquerque, NM | 0.92M | $68K | $264K | 3.88× | 4.3% | +53.2% | — | +0.01% | — |
Greenville-Anderson, SC | 0.93M | $69K | $243K | 3.52× | 4.3% | +64.9% | 8.85 | +0.32% | 4.6% |
Columbia, SC | 0.83M | $66K | $213K | 3.23× | 4.7% | +60.4% | 0.82 | +0.07% | — |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
+1,398
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
+0.16% of metro population
3,492 from top origin
Knoxville absorbed +1,398 net IRS migrants — +0.16% of population, steady inflow above the Tennessee state median of +0.13%. The Smoky Mountains gateway pulls cost refugees from Nashville, Atlanta, and the Northeast — driving the highest 5-year HPI in the queue.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Knox County, TN | 3,492 |
| Blount County, TN | 1,338 |
| Anderson County, TN | 1,323 |
| Sevier County, TN | 911 |
| Loudon County, TN | 694 |
| Roane County, TN | 687 |
Who lives in Knoxville
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 40.5
- Owner-occupancy
- 70.2%
- Bachelor's+
- 31.9%
Knoxville mature Midwest metro: Median age 40.5, 70.2% owner-occupancy 31.9% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 42.5% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $69,734
- Median age
- 40.5
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 31.9%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 70.2%
- Vacancy rate
- 10.0%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 42.5%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026