Syracuse, NY
**The Micron mega-fab is coming — and the market is already pricing it in.** Syracuse runs HPI **+69.4% over 5yr** with **YoY +8.01% — THE HIGHEST CURRENT-YEAR HPI OF ANY METRO IN THE ENTIRE T5 QUEUE**. Even higher than Allentown (+7.14%) and Dayton (+6.98%). **P/I 2.38 affordable, R/I 22.7% comfortable, Cap proxy 6.19% SOLID — THE ONLY 'SOLID' CAP RATE IN THE QUEUE**. MHV $175K — one of cheapest. FMR 2BR $1,392. 3 counties (Onondaga 473K, Oswego 118K, Madison 68K). Permits 3.36/1k normal. **Permit YoY +264.5% extreme (driven by multi-5+ spike — likely Micron-adjacent apartment projects)**. Migration −1,326 (−0.20% shrinking). **Unemployment 3.8% healthy**. Anchored by **Micron Technology's $100B semiconductor fab** (CHIPS Act anchor, under construction in Clay — the single largest private investment in New York state history), Syracuse University, SUNY Upstate Medical, Lockheed Martin Syracuse, St. Joseph's Health, Crouse Hospital.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
affordable
Price to income
2.38×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs New York
- 2.85×-0.47
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×-1.05
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
22.7%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs New York
- 24.0%-1.3
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%-0.6
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
solid
Cap rate proxy
6.2%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs New York
- 5.3%+0.9
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%+1.8
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
shrinking
Net migration
-0.20%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs New York
- -0.12%
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
3.36
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs New York
- 2.20+1.16
- vs U.S.
- 3.49
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
healthy
Unemployment
3.8%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs New York
- 4.0%-0.2
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%-0.2
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Syracuse
Syracuse, NY is home to 658,694 residents in 3 counties — Onondaga, Oswego, and Madison. The metro pulled 2,213 building permits over the trailing twelve months according to the Census Bureau Building Permits Survey — 3.36 per 1,000 residents, near the national pace. The cap rate proxy sits at 6.19% — SOLID, the ONLY metro in the entire T5 queue with a "solid" cap rate. The price-to-income ratio is 2.38 affordable — one of the cheapest. Median household income is $73,558, the median home value is $175K, and the BLS LAUS unemployment rate is 3.8% — healthy.
But the headline number is the HPI: +69.4% over five years (nearly tied with Charleston for #2 in the queue) and YoY +8.01% — THE HIGHEST CURRENT-YEAR HPI OF ANY METRO IN THE ENTIRE T5 QUEUE. Higher than Allentown (+7.14%), Dayton (+6.98%), Akron (+5.23%), or any Sun Belt metro. According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency HPI, Syracuse is appreciating faster than every other metro we've built.
The structural story is the Micron mega-fab. Micron Technology is building a $100 billion semiconductor fabrication facility at White Pine Commerce Park in Clay (town of Clay, Onondaga County), approximately 15 minutes north of downtown Syracuse. This is the largest CHIPS Act investment in the country and the single largest private investment in New York state history. The fab is expected to create ~9,000 Micron direct jobs and ~40,000 supplier and construction jobs over the next decade. The market is already pricing this in — that +8.01% YoY is the Micron signal.
Beyond Micron, the institutional roster:
- Syracuse University — AAU-member research university, ~22,000 students, one of the largest employers in Central New York.
- SUNY Upstate Medical University — the only academic medical center in Central New York, ~10,000 employees.
- Lockheed Martin Syracuse — radar and electronic warfare systems manufacturing (a major defense employer in the metro).
- St. Joseph's Health and Crouse Hospital — regional healthcare anchors.
- Colgate University in Hamilton (Madison County) — selective liberal arts college.
The county distribution:
- Onondaga County (472,637 residents, 1,955 permits TTM = 4.14 per 1,000) — Syracuse proper, Clay (the Micron fab site), Cicero, DeWitt, Camillus, Manlius, Skaneateles (the Finger Lakes gem), Liverpool, North Syracuse. 88% of the metro pipeline. Permit YoY +300.61% — driven by Micron-adjacent apartment projects.
- Oswego County (118,037 residents, 141 permits = 1.19 per 1,000) — Oswego, Fulton, Pulaski. The Lake Ontario county. Permit YoY −8.44%.
- Madison County (68,020 residents, 117 permits = 1.72 per 1,000) — Oneida, Cazenovia, Hamilton (Colgate University), Chittenango, Morrisville. Permit YoY −9.3%.
Construction is 30% single-family / 70% multifamily (658 SF / 29 multi-2-4 / 1,526 multi-5+) — extreme multifamily share, driven by the Micron housing demand anticipation. Builders are racing to put apartment inventory in place before the fab workforce arrives. Permit YoY is +264.5% — the highest acceleration in the queue (off a small base).
What's changing: net IRS migration is −1,326 returns (−0.20% — shrinking). But the IRS data is from Tax Year 2022 — before the Micron announcement fully activated the in-migration pump. The next IRS vintage will tell a very different story. Owner-occupancy 68.3%, vacancy 9.9%, bachelors 34.2%, median age 39.9.
So what does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow — Syracuse is THE best cash-flow setup in the entire queue. The cap proxy at 6.19% solid with a $175K median home value and $1,392 Fair Market Rent is the only metro where the proxy clears the "solid" threshold. And Micron is about to bring 9,000+ direct jobs that need housing.
- If you're playing appreciation — Syracuse is the Micron-fab appreciation rocket. The +8.01% YoY is already the fastest in the queue and the fab construction hasn't even peaked yet. Buy and hold for the Micron decade. Focus on Clay (the fab site), Cicero (adjacent), and the Liverpool/North Syracuse corridor.
- If you already own here — add aggressively. This is the strongest combination of numbers in the queue: highest YoY HPI + only solid cap rate + cheapest entry point + CHIPS Act mega-anchor. The Micron investment changes the structural trajectory of Central New York for 30 years.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+69.4%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+8.0% YoY
$175,300 median home value
Syracuse home prices climbed 69.4% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a strong appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change of 8.0% is still running hot.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Syracuse ran **+69.4% over five years** — one of the highest 5-year compounders in the queue, nearly tied with Charleston (+69.1%) and behind only Knoxville (+77.4%).
- 02**Recent YoY is +8.01% — THE HIGHEST CURRENT-YEAR HPI OF ANY METRO IN THE ENTIRE T5 QUEUE**. Higher than Allentown (+7.14%), Dayton (+6.98%), Akron (+5.23%), or any Sun Belt metro. The Micron mega-fab announcement is already pricing into the market.
- 03Inside New York, Syracuse ranks top quartile by HPI — well ahead of the stagnant NYC suburbs.
- 04U.S. metros ran **+34.3%** over the same window. Syracuse outperformed by 35 points — the highest delta in the queue.
- 05The takeaway: Syracuse is the **Micron-fab-driven appreciation rocket** — the $100B semiconductor fab in Clay is the single largest private investment in New York state history and the market is pricing it in at 8% per year.
Where the value tier sits — top 3 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Onondaga County | $185,300 | $74,740 | 2.48× | affordable |
| Madison County | $176,800 | $73,141 | 2.42× | affordable |
| Oswego County | $139,600 | $68,461 | 2.04× | affordable |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,392
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
22.7% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 22.7% of their income — 0.6 points below the U.S. average (23.3%) 1.3 points below New York (24.0%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,123 | $13.5K | 18.3% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,392 | $16.7K | 22.7% | comfortable |
| 3 BR | $1,691 | $20.3K | 27.6% | moderate |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
3.8%
BLS LAUS · latest month
Syracuse's labor market is healthy, with unemployment running at 3.8% — 0.2 points below the U.S. metros average (4.0%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
3.8%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$73,558
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
2,213
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+264.5% year-over-year
3.36 permits per 1,000 residents
Syracuse pulled 2,213 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 264.5% year-over-year. That works out to 3.36 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
658
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
29
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
1,526
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 3 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Onondaga County leads with 1,955 TTM permits = 4.14 per 1,000** — Syracuse proper, Clay (the Micron fab site at White Pine Commerce Park), Cicero, DeWitt, Camillus, Manlius, Skaneateles, Liverpool, North Syracuse. **88% of the metro pipeline.** Permit YoY **+300.61%** — driven by Micron-adjacent multi-5+ apartment projects.
- 02**Oswego County** (Oswego, Fulton, Pulaski, Mexico, Hannibal) issued **141 permits = 1.19 per 1,000** — the Lake Ontario county. Permit YoY −8.44%.
- 03**Madison County** (Oneida, Cazenovia, Hamilton, Chittenango, Morrisville) issued **117 permits = 1.72 per 1,000** — the eastern rural county, home to Colgate University. Permit YoY −9.3%.
- 04Syracuse runs **3.36 permits per 1,000 residents** — near the national 3.49. **Permit YoY +264.5%** extreme (off a small base — 1,526 multi-5+ units, likely Micron-adjacent apartment projects).
- 05**30% single-family / 70% multifamily** (658 SF / 29 multi-2-4 / 1,526 multi-5+) — **extreme multifamily share**, driven by the Micron housing demand anticipation.
How to read the map
- 01**Onondaga County (the urban core) is densest at 4.14 per 1,000** — Syracuse proper, **Clay** (the Micron Technology mega-fab site at White Pine Commerce Park), Cicero, DeWitt, Camillus, Manlius, Skaneateles (the Finger Lakes gem), Liverpool.
- 02**Madison County (east, Oneida/Cazenovia) at 1.72 per 1,000** — Colgate University territory.
- 03**Oswego County (north, Lake Ontario) at 1.19 per 1,000** — the slowest, anchored by SUNY Oswego and the Oswego nuclear station.
- 04**The pattern is concentrated** — Onondaga carries 88% of the pipeline, and the multi-5+ spike in Onondaga is the Micron demand signal.
- 05**Micron Technology's $100B semiconductor fabrication facility** is under construction at White Pine Commerce Park in Clay (town of Clay, Onondaga County), just 15 minutes north of downtown Syracuse. It's the largest CHIPS Act investment in the country and will create ~9,000 Micron jobs + ~40,000 supplier/construction jobs over the next decade.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Onondaga County | 472,637 | $74,740 | $185,300 | 1,955 | +300.6% |
| 2 | Oswego County | 118,037 | $68,461 | $139,600 | 141 | |
| 3 | Madison County | 68,020 | $73,141 | $176,800 | 117 |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Syracuse by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Best in 2 of 4 comparable metrics
Syracuse is closest in size to Springfield, Wichita, Akron, Palm Bay. best in class on Cap rate proxy, Price to income, and behind on Net migration.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Syracuse is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Syracuse | 0.66M | $74K | $175K | 2.38× | 6.2% | +69.4% | 3.36 | -0.20% | 3.8% |
Springfield, MA | 0.69M | $71K | $276K | 3.92× | 4.9% | +51.8% | 1.10 | -0.15% | 5.7% |
Wichita, KS | 0.65M | $69K | $188K | 2.73× | 4.6% | +49.6% | 4.67 | +0.01% | 3.7% |
Akron, OH | 0.70M | $71K | $199K | 2.79× | 5.0% | +53.2% | 1.16 | -0.02% | 4.3% |
Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL | 0.61M | $76K | $304K | 4.01× | 4.4% | +54.5% | 7.15 | +1.07% | 4.8% |
Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL | 0.68M | $68K | $287K | 4.25× | 4.9% | +52.0% | 8.03 | +1.20% | 5.3% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
-1,326
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
-0.20% of metro population
1,381 from top origin
Syracuse lost −1,326 net IRS returns (−0.20% of population) — a modest outflow, but this is Tax Year 2022 data, before the Micron announcement fully activated the in-migration pump. The next IRS vintage will tell a very different story.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Onondaga County, NY | 1,381 |
| Oswego County, NY | 822 |
| Oneida County, NY | 795 |
| Madison County, NY | 451 |
| Cayuga County, NY | 442 |
| Monroe County, NY | 277 |
Who lives in Syracuse
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 39.9
- Owner-occupancy
- 68.3%
- Bachelor's+
- 34.2%
Syracuse relatively young Midwest metro: Median age 39.9, 68.3% owner-occupancy 34.2% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 46.0% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $73,558
- Median age
- 39.9
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 34.2%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 68.3%
- Vacancy rate
- 9.9%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 46.0%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Jan 2026 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Jan 2026 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 10, 2026