Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
**Florida's deepest current-year correction — and still the second-highest building rate in the queue.** Cape Coral runs HPI **+47.8% over 5yr** but **YoY −4.67% — the WORST current-year HPI in any T5 metro in the queue** (deeper than even North Port's −1.66%). P/I 4.46 moderate, **R/I 32.2% burdened**, Cap proxy 4.69% deal-by-deal. **Permits 17.10/1k — second-highest in queue** (only North Port 20.23 higher). Single-county metro (Lee). **Migration +8,177 (+1.06% steady, strong)**. Hurricane Ian (2022) left Lee County in active rebuild. **Median age 49.3 — retiree-heavy. Vacancy 25.7% (snowbird/seasonal). Owner-occupancy 74%.** Anchored by Lee Health, Florida Gulf Coast University, retirement/snowbird economy, post-Ian rebuild.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
4.46×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Florida
- 4.22×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
burdened
Rent to income
32.2%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Florida
- 28.1%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
4.7%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Florida
- 4.4%+0.3
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%+0.3
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
steady
Net migration
+1.06%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Florida
- 0.83%+0.23
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%+1.02
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline growing
Permit pipeline
17.10
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Florida
- 8.03+9.07
- vs U.S.
- 3.49+13.62
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
—
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Florida
- 4.5%
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Cape Coral
Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL is home to 772,902 residents in a single county — Lee County. The metro pulled 13,217 building permits over the trailing twelve months according to the Census Bureau Building Permits Survey — 17.10 per 1,000 residents, the second-highest per-capita rate in the entire queue (only North Port-Sarasota at 20.23 builds faster). That's 4.9 times the national pace of 3.49 and over double the Florida state median of 8.03. The cap rate proxy sits at 4.69% — deal-by-deal — and the price-to-income ratio is 4.46 moderate. But the rent-to-income is 32.2% — burdened. Median household income is $73,099 and the median home value is $326K.
The structural story is the deepest current-year HPI correction in the entire T5 queue: Cape Coral ran HPI +47.8% over five years (Sun Belt territory) but YoY is now −4.67%, NEGATIVE. According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency HPI, this is the worst current-year reading of any metro in the queue — deeper than even North Port's −1.66%, deeper than Phoenix, deeper than Stockton. Cape Coral is where the Florida correction is happening hardest. The cause is a stack of headwinds:
- Hurricane Ian (September 2022) destroyed thousands of homes in Lee County. Cape Coral, Fort Myers Beach, Sanibel, Pine Island all took direct hits. The insurance market collapsed afterward — Florida home insurance premiums jumped 60-100% in many ZIPs.
- Insurance crisis — Citizens Property Insurance (the Florida insurer of last resort) is now the largest insurer in the state. Many private carriers stopped writing new policies in coastal Lee County.
- Snowbird/seasonal market exposure — vacancy is 25.7% (one of the highest in the queue), reflecting the metro's heavy seasonal-occupancy profile. When demand for second homes softens, this is where it shows up first.
- Rate sensitivity — buyers in the $300-500K range are the most rate-sensitive cohort, and Cape Coral's median home value sits right in that band.
But the migration data tells a different story: net IRS migration is +8,177 returns (+1.06% of population) — strongly positive. People are still moving here. The top origin counties via IRS Statistics of Income are concentrated in the Northeast and Midwest — the classic Florida retiree pull. So you have falling prices, peak construction, AND net inflow happening simultaneously. That's unusual.
The county view is simple — Lee County is the entire metro. But the geography inside Lee County matters:
- Cape Coral (the largest city) sits on over 400 miles of canal frontage — one of the largest pre-platted communities in the country. Most current construction is filling in or replacing canal lots.
- Fort Myers (the county seat, east of the Caloosahatchee River) anchors the urban core. Florida Gulf Coast University is here.
- Lehigh Acres is the inland sprawl — affordable single-family housing on a 1950s grid plat, now filling in fast.
- Estero and Bonita Springs (south, on the I-75 corridor toward Naples) are the upscale growth band.
- Sanibel and Captiva are the barrier islands — Hurricane Ian rebuilt and reopened for the 2024 season.
Construction is 72% single-family / 28% multifamily (9,477 SF / 254 multi-2-4 / 3,486 multi-5+). The metro builds detached homes for retirees and snowbirds, with the multifamily share concentrated in downtown Fort Myers.
Owner-occupancy is 74.0% (high — typical Florida retiree pattern). Median age 49.3 — second-oldest in the T5 queue (after North Port-Sarasota at 53.6). Vacancy 25.7% very high. Rent burdened 55.6% severe.
So what does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow — Cape Coral does NOT pencil. The cap proxy at 4.69% deal-by-deal combined with insurance costs that have doubled since 2022 means real cash-on-cash is much worse than the proxy suggests. Florida insurance is the silent killer — never use the cap proxy alone for FL deals.
- If you're playing appreciation — wait. The YoY −4.67% is the deepest current-year decline in the queue and there's no signal that the cooldown has bottomed. Permit YoY is still positive (+4.52%), which means more supply is coming — and supply on top of weak demand keeps prices falling. Don't catch the falling knife. Wait for YoY to flatten.
- If you already own here — hold and pray for hurricane season to be quiet. Refinance if your insurance allows it. Don't add until the YoY signal flips. The structural Florida pull (retirees, snowbirds, no income tax) is real — but it doesn't override the current correction.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+47.8%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
-4.7% YoY
$326,300 median home value
Cape Coral home prices climbed 47.8% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a steady appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change is negative (-4.7%), signaling the market is cooling.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Cape Coral ran **+47.8% over five years** — solid Sun Belt territory, beating the U.S. metros average (+34.3%) by 13 points.
- 02**Recent YoY is −4.67% — the WORST current-year HPI of any T5 metro in the queue**. Deeper than even North Port-Sarasota's −1.66%. The Florida correction is here, and Cape Coral is where it hurts most.
- 03Inside Florida, Cape Coral ranks **#11 of 20 for 5-year HPI** — middle of a hot state. **#11 by population, #4 by permits**.
- 04U.S. metros ran **+34.3%** over the same window. Cape Coral outperformed by ~13 points but is now giving 5 points back per year.
- 05The takeaway: Cape Coral is the **deepest Florida correction in the queue**. The 5-year compound is still strong, but the YoY says it's repricing fast. Don't catch the falling knife — wait for YoY to flatten, then enter.
Where the value tier sits — top 1 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee County | $326,300 | $73,099 | 4.46× | moderate |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,961
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
32.2% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 32.2% of their income — 8.9 points above the U.S. average (23.3%) 4.0 points above Florida (28.1%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,638 | $19.7K | 26.9% | moderate |
| 2 BR | $1,961 | $23.5K | 32.2% | rent-burdened |
| 3 BR | $2,560 | $30.7K | 42.0% | rent-burdened |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
—
BLS LAUS · latest month
Cape Coral's labor market is softening, with unemployment running at —.
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
—
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$73,099
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
13,217
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+4.5% year-over-year
17.10 permits per 1,000 residents
Cape Coral pulled 13,217 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a modest expansion 4.5% year-over-year. That works out to 17.10 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
9,477
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
254
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
3,486
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 1 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Lee County is the entire metro — 13,217 TTM permits = 17.10 per 1,000** — the second-highest per-capita rate in the entire queue (only North Port 20.23 beats it). Cape Coral, Fort Myers, Lehigh Acres, Estero, Bonita Springs, Sanibel.
- 02Cape Coral runs **17.10 permits per 1,000 residents** — **4.9x the national 3.49** and over 2x the Florida state median of 8.03.
- 03**Permit YoY is +4.52%** — modest acceleration, much slower than the +29-69% rates seen in other Sun Belt metros. The cooldown is reaching the construction side too.
- 04**72% single-family / 28% multifamily** (9,477 SF / 254 multi-2-4 / 3,486 multi-5+). Cape Coral builds detached homes for retirees and snowbirds — the multifamily share is mostly downtown Fort Myers.
- 05**Hurricane Ian (Sept 2022) destroyed thousands of homes** in Lee County — Cape Coral, Sanibel, Fort Myers Beach. A meaningful chunk of the permit pipeline is rebuild, not net new supply.
How to read the map
- 01**Lee County is the entire MSA at 17.10 per 1,000** — Cape Coral (the largest city), Fort Myers (the historic county seat), Lehigh Acres (the inland sprawl), Estero, Bonita Springs (south, near Naples), Sanibel and Captiva (the barrier islands).
- 02**Lehigh Acres** is the inland growth nodule — affordable single-family on a grid platted in the 1950s, now filling in fast.
- 03**Cape Coral itself** is over 400 miles of canal frontage — one of the largest pre-platted communities in the country. Most of the new construction is replacing or filling in those canal lots.
- 04**The metro builds at 17.10/1k vs the Florida state median of 8.03** — over 2x the state average. Construction intensity is at peak Florida levels even with prices falling.
- 05**Hurricane Ian's path went directly through Lee County** in September 2022, destroying thousands of homes in Fort Myers Beach, Pine Island, Sanibel, and Cape Coral coastline. The post-Ian rebuild is part of why permit volume stays high even as new buyer demand cools.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lee County | 772,902 | $73,099 | $326,300 | 13,217 | +4.5% |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Cape Coral by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Cape Coral is closest in size to Dayton, Akron, North Port, Little Rock.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Cape Coral is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Cape Coral | 0.77M | $73K | $326K | 4.46× | 4.7% | +47.8% | 17.10 | +1.06% | — |
Dayton-Kettering, OH | 0.81M | $70K | $186K | 2.67× | 5.3% | +57.0% | 2.64 | -0.03% | — |
Akron, OH | 0.70M | $71K | $199K | 2.79× | 5.0% | +53.2% | 1.16 | -0.02% | — |
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL | 0.84M | $78K | $368K | 4.70× | 4.2% | +57.3% | 20.23 | +1.29% | — |
Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR | 0.75M | $65K | $199K | 3.05× | 4.5% | +43.9% | 3.86 | +0.09% | — |
Springfield, MA | 0.69M | $71K | $276K | 3.92× | 4.9% | +51.8% | 1.10 | -0.15% | — |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
+8,177
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
+1.06% of metro population
2,724 from top origin
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Collier County, FL | 2,724 |
| Miami-Dade County, FL | 2,187 |
| Broward County, FL | 1,015 |
| Charlotte County, FL | 532 |
| Cook County, IL | 517 |
| Palm Beach County, FL | 496 |
Who lives in Cape Coral
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 49.3
- Owner-occupancy
- 74.0%
- Bachelor's+
- 30.8%
Cape Coral mature Midwest metro: Median age 49.3, 74.0% owner-occupancy 30.8% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 55.6% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $73,099
- Median age
- 49.3
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 30.8%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 74.0%
- Vacancy rate
- 25.7%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 55.6%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026