Erie, PA
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
affordable
Price to income
2.76×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Pennsylvania
- 3.03×-0.27
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×-0.67
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
23.7%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Pennsylvania
- 22.4%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
5.58%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Pennsylvania
- 4.86%+0.72
- vs U.S.
- 4.35%+1.23
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
shrinking
Net migration
-0.11%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Pennsylvania
- 0.09%
- vs U.S.
- 0.03%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
tight
Permit pipeline
0.95
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Pennsylvania
- 2.17
- vs U.S.
- 3.52
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
4.2%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Pennsylvania
- 3.6%
- vs U.S.
- 3.9%
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Where prices are and where they've been
5-year price appreciation
+61.3%
homeValues.yearOverYear
+9.4%
Median home value
$169,500
The rent ladder
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $945 | $11,340 | 18.4% |
| 2 BR | $1,212 | $14,544 | 23.7% |
| 3 BR | $1,499 | $17,988 | 29.3% |
Labor market direction
Unemployment
4.2%
Median household income
$61,476
What's being built
Total TTM
258
+66.5% YoY
Single-family
198
2–4 unit
2
5+ unit
58
All 1 counties, ranked by population
| County | Population | Home value | Median HHI | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erie County | 270,495 | $169,500 | $61,476 | 258 | +66.5% |
Similar metros nationally
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★Erie | 270,495 | $61,476 | 2.76× | 5.58% | +61.3% | 0.95 | 4.2% |
| Laredo, TX | 267,282 | $62,506 | — | — | +48.0% | — | 4.1% |
| Tuscaloosa, AL | 272,931 | $59,975 | — | — | +45.0% | — | 2.4% |
| College Station-Bryan, TX | 269,418 | $59,691 | — | — | +48.3% | — | 3.1% |
| Waco, TX | 278,103 | $63,880 | — | — | +49.5% | — | 3.6% |
| Merced, CA | 282,290 | $65,044 | — | — | +42.5% | — | 9.6% |
Where people are moving in from
Net migration
-297
-0.11% of population
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Crawford County, PA | 308 |
| Allegheny County, PA | 202 |
| Chautauqua County, NY | 124 |
| Warren County, PA | 102 |
| Ashtabula County, OH | 69 |
| Cuyahoga County, OH | 65 |
Who lives in Erie
- Median age
- 40
- Bachelor's+
- 29.6%
- Owner-occupancy
- 68.3%
- Vacancy rate
- 8.3%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 46.2%
- Median household income
- $61,476
This page shows federally sourced data. A full editorial analysis with charts and investment commentary is in progress.