Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA
Northeast Pennsylvania's affordable anchor. Scranton spans 3 counties and 567,287 residents, with a median home value of $176,500 producing a 5.5% cap rate proxy — the highest among its peer set. Net IRS migration of +1,066 and 610 building permits signal a market that's stable, not stagnant.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
affordable
Price to income
2.77×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Pennsylvania
- 3.03×-0.25
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×-0.66
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
23.6%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Pennsylvania
- 22.4%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
5.5%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Pennsylvania
- 4.9%+0.7
- vs U.S.
- 4.3%+1.2
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
steady
Net migration
+0.19%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Pennsylvania
- 0.09%+0.10
- vs U.S.
- 0.03%+0.16
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
1.08
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Pennsylvania
- 2.17
- vs U.S.
- 3.52
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
4.3%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Pennsylvania
- 3.6%
- vs U.S.
- 3.9%
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Scranton
Scranton is the affordable metro that quietly outran the state — and most investors haven't noticed yet. The metro stretches across 3 northeast Pennsylvania counties and 567,287 residents, and the FHFA House Price Index is up 59.8% over five years per the Federal Housing Finance Agency, outpacing both the Pennsylvania metro average (47%) and the U.S. metro average (46%). That acceleration sits on top of a $176,500 median home value — producing a 5.5% cap rate proxy, the highest in the peer group. Median household income runs $63,656, BLS unemployment is 4.3% (Bureau of Labor Statistics LAUS), and the metro pulled 610 building permits in the trailing twelve months per the Census Building Permits Survey — just 1.08 per 1,000 residents, which is the supply constraint that keeps prices climbing.
The construction story splits cleanly between two urban anchors.
- Luzerne County (Wilkes-Barre) holds 325,396 residents and 319 permits TTM — 52% of the metro total, up +13.5% YoY. Median household income runs $62,321 against a $163,800 median home value. The county's Pocono-adjacent location and cheaper land draw NYC-area outmigrants looking for breathing room.
- Lackawanna County (Scranton) is the surge story: 268 permits, up +38.9% YoY on a population of 215K. Median home value sits at $189,900 — the highest of the three counties. Healthcare anchors (Geisinger, Commonwealth Health) and the University of Scranton keep the demand side tight.
- Wyoming County is the rural fringe: 26,219 residents, 23 permits, and −11.5% YoY decline. It sits between the two urban cores as a quiet buffer. Median household income of $70,268 is the highest in the metro — affluent, rural, barely building.
- The permit mix is overwhelmingly single-family: 538 of 610 permits (88%) are single-family, with just 20 units in the 5+ multifamily category. Scranton is building houses, not apartment complexes.
What's changing: net migration landed at +1,066 returns in the most recent IRS Statistics of Income vintage — +0.19% of metro population. The top origin counties tell the story: Luzerne and Lackawanna themselves (intra-metro churn), then Bronx County, NY (558 returns) and Kings County, NY (400 returns). This is the NYC spillover corridor — families trading $3,000/month Brooklyn rents for $1,252 Fair Market Rent in Scranton (HUD FMR). Unemployment at 4.3% runs above the PA state median (3.7%) but in line with the national median (3.9%). The labor market isn't booming, but it's functional — healthcare and education are recession-resistant anchors.
So what does an investor do with this?
- If you're hunting cash flow, Scranton delivers. The 5.5% cap rate proxy leads the peer group — Chattanooga and Augusta run lower. A $176,500 median home value with $1,252/month FMR is a math problem that works on day one for buy-and-hold investors in Luzerne County, where prices start at $163,800.
- If you're playing appreciation, the trend is real but don't expect acceleration. 59.8% over five years is strong for a legacy market, and Scranton just crossed above the PA state average — but the supply pipeline (1.08 per 1,000) is so tight that price gains are driven by scarcity, not demand surges. Steady compounding, not a hockey stick.
- If you already own here, hold and reinvest. The NYC migration pipeline keeps tenant demand stable, the permit pipeline is barely keeping up, and the vacancy rate of 11.9% reflects legacy housing stock, not overbuilding. Focus on Lackawanna County — the +38.9% permit surge signals where the next wave of demand is concentrating.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+59.8%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+6.8% YoY
$176,500 median home value
Scranton home prices climbed 59.8% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a steady appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change of 6.8% is still running hot.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Scranton's HPI gained **59.8%** over five years — outpacing both the PA metro average (47%) and the U.S. metro average (46%).
- 02The teal line runs below the state and national curves in absolute terms (lower starting point) but climbs faster from 2020 onward — a catch-up story.
- 03No down quarters in the most recent 8 — steady acceleration with the steepest leg from Q1 2024 to Q3 2025.
- 04Scranton crossed above the PA metro average around mid-2025 and closed Q4 2025 at **312.28** vs. Pennsylvania's **308.16**.
- 05Year-over-year HPI growth is **6.8%** — above the national pace and well above the 2022–2023 plateau when rates froze activity.
Where the value tier sits — top 3 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wyoming County | $205,600 | $70,268 | 2.93× | affordable |
| Lackawanna County | $189,900 | $64,691 | 2.94× | affordable |
| Luzerne County | $163,800 | $62,321 | 2.63× | affordable |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,252
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
23.6% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 23.6% of their income — 0.3 points above the U.S. average (23.3%) 1.2 points above Pennsylvania (22.4%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,028 | $12.3K | 19.4% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,252 | $15.0K | 23.6% | comfortable |
| 3 BR | $1,631 | $19.6K | 30.7% | rent-burdened |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
4.3%
BLS LAUS · latest month
Scranton's labor market is softening, with unemployment running at 4.3% — 0.4 points above the U.S. metros average (3.9%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
4.3%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$63,656
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
610
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+23.7% year-over-year
1.08 permits per 1,000 residents
Scranton pulled 610 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 23.7% year-over-year. That works out to 1.08 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.52.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
538
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
52
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
20
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 3 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01Luzerne County leads with **319 permits** (52% of metro total) on the largest population base of 325K — the Wilkes-Barre side of the metro.
- 02Lackawanna County surged **+38.9% YoY** to **268 permits** — the fastest-growing county, anchored by Scranton proper.
- 03Wyoming County pulls just **23 permits** on 26K residents — rural fringe with minimal building activity.
- 04Metro-wide permits are up **23.7% YoY**, concentrated in the two urban counties that account for 96% of all activity.
How to read the map
- 01Luzerne County (darkest shade) anchors the northeast with **319 permits** — the Wilkes-Barre side of the metro.
- 02Lackawanna County (medium shade) sits northwest with **268 permits** — the Scranton side, where the +38.9% YoY surge is happening.
- 03Wyoming County (lightest shade) sits between the two urban counties as a rural buffer — just **23 permits** on 26K residents.
- 04The metro hugs the northeast PA mountain corridor — all 3 counties are contiguous, stretching along the Susquehanna and Lackawanna river valleys.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luzerne County | 325,396 | $62,321 | $163,800 | 319 | +13.5% |
| 2 | Lackawanna County | 215,672 | $64,691 | $189,900 | 268 | +38.9% |
| 3 | Wyoming County | 26,219 | $70,268 | $205,600 | 23 |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Scranton by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Best in 2 of 4 comparable metrics
Scranton is closest in size to Jackson, Chattanooga, Augusta, Fayetteville. best in class on Cap rate proxy, Price to income, and behind on Permit pipeline.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Scranton is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Scranton | 0.57M | $64K | $177K | 2.77× | 5.5% | +59.8% | 1.08 | +0.19% | 4.3% |
Jackson, MS | 0.59M | $60K | $189K | 3.12× | 5.3% | +37.3% | 2.31 | -0.13% | 2.8% |
Chattanooga, TN-GA | 0.56M | $69K | $246K | 3.58× | 4.4% | +65.9% | 5.47 | +0.27% | 3.2% |
Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC | 0.61M | $67K | $207K | 3.11× | 4.7% | +59.6% | 6.23 | +0.11% | 4.3% |
Fayetteville, NC | 0.52M | $59K | $186K | 3.16× | 5.2% | +62.6% | 6.98 | +0.11% | 4.3% |
Lansing-East Lansing, MI | 0.54M | $71K | $205K | 2.90× | 4.8% | +49.3% | 1.68 | -0.14% | 4.4% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
+1,066
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
+0.19% of metro population
844 from top origin
Scranton absorbed a net +1,066 tax returns in the most recent IRS vintage — a +0.19% inflow on a metro of 567K. Modest but positive, driven largely by intra-county churn (Luzerne and Lackawanna) and a steady stream from the New York City boroughs — Bronx (558 returns) and Kings County (400).
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Luzerne County, PA | 844 |
| Lackawanna County, PA | 796 |
| Bronx County, NY | 558 |
| Monroe County, PA | 420 |
| Kings County, NY | 400 |
| Wayne County, PA | 345 |
Who lives in Scranton
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 42.2
- Owner-occupancy
- 67.3%
- Bachelor's+
- 26.8%
Scranton mature Midwest metro: Median age 42.2, 67.3% owner-occupancy 26.8% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 41.7% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $63,656
- Median age
- 42.2
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 26.8%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 67.3%
- Vacancy rate
- 11.9%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 41.7%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Jan 2026 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Jan 2026 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 10, 2026