Richmond, VA
The capital metro running Midwest-tier YoY HPI. Richmond ran +56.0% over 5 years (Sun Belt territory) AND is still climbing at +4.33% YoY (in the Pittsburgh/Cincinnati/Kansas City accelerator tier). Permits 7.58/1k strong (+19.2% YoY). Top 3 in Virginia for 5-year HPI. Cap proxy 3.96% borderline workable. Migration +3,513. Anchored by state government, Capital One HQ, the Federal Reserve Fifth District, and a busy port.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
3.86×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Virginia
- 3.86×=
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
23.5%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Virginia
- 22.9%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
tight
Cap rate proxy
4.0%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Virginia
- 4.0%=
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
steady
Net migration
+0.27%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Virginia
- -0.06%+0.33
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%+0.23
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
7.58
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Virginia
- 5.90+1.68
- vs U.S.
- 3.49+4.09
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
healthy
Unemployment
3.3%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Virginia
- 3.3%=
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%-0.7
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Richmond
Richmond is the capital city accelerator. Across 20 jurisdictions — Richmond city plus Henrico, Chesterfield, Hanover, and 16 smaller VA counties and independent cities — the metro packs 1.32 million residents with a household income of $84,405 (Census ACS) and a median home value of $325,800. The HUD Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom is $1,655. The House Price Index ran +56.0% over five years (FHFA HPI) — Sun Belt territory, on par with Cincinnati (+57.1%) and ahead of Phoenix (+53.8%) and Miami (+55.3%).
The interesting fact is that Richmond is the highest-ranked accelerator metro in Virginia. #3 of 11 for 5-year HPI in VA — top tier behind only Northern Virginia (DC suburbs). YoY HPI is +4.33% — strong, in the Pittsburgh/Cincinnati/Kansas City accelerator tier. The cycle is mature but very much alive. Unemployment is 3.3%, tighter than the national 4.0% and one of the tightest of any T4 metro in the queue.
The 20-jurisdiction geometry concentrates pipeline in 4 places (the rest add small amounts):
- Richmond city (227K pop, $328,100 MHV) leads with 3,097 permits TTM = 13.63 per 1,000 — extraordinarily high for a city core. The multifamily push downtown plus Manchester and Scott's Addition revitalization.
- Henrico County (333K pop, $333,600 MHV) builds 2,205 permits = 6.62 per 1,000 — Glen Allen, Innsbrook, Short Pump. The affluent western suburban corridor.
- Chesterfield County (366K pop, $336,700 MHV) builds 2,083 permits = 5.69 per 1,000 — Midlothian, Brandermill, the southside growth ring.
- Hanover County (111K pop, $372,700 MHV) builds 502 permits = 4.54 per 1,000 — Mechanicsville, Ashland, the northern affluent exurb.
Richmond runs 7.58 permits per 1,000 residents — strong, well above the national 3.49. 48% single-family / 52% multifamily — multifamily-heavy for a metro this size, driven by the urban-core build push. Permit YoY is +19.2% — accelerating fast. The cap rate proxy is 3.96% — borderline workable, just below the 4.4% national.
What's changing: net IRS migration is +3,513 returns (IRS SOI) — steady, +0.27% of population. The capital city catches intra-Virginia movement plus outbound DC-area households. Owner-occupancy 67.1%, bachelor's-or-higher 40.2% — settled, educated, government-anchored. Inside Virginia, Richmond is #3 by population, #1 by permits, #3 by 5-year HPI — top tier across all three.
What does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow: Richmond is borderline. 3.96% cap proxy at the median is just below working. Look at Petersburg, Hopewell, and the southside Chesterfield workforce belt for sub-$250K SFR. The Richmond city core multifamily is institutional-only.
- If you're playing appreciation: Richmond is one of the better stories in the queue. +56% over 5 years AND +4.33% YoY says the trend is intact. Henrico (Glen Allen, Innsbrook) is the affluent appreciation play; Chesterfield is the volume play.
- If you already own here: Hold and lean in. The labor market is among the tightest in the queue, migration is positive, and YoY HPI is in the queue's top tier. Richmond is the capital-anchored Mid-Atlantic accelerator — quietly one of the best stories on the page.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+56.0%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+4.3% YoY
$325,800 median home value
Richmond home prices climbed 56.0% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a steady appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change of 4.3% suggests steady appreciation continuing.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Richmond ran **+56.0% over five years** — Sun Belt territory, on par with Cincinnati (+57.1%) and ahead of Phoenix (+53.8%) and Miami (+55.3%).
- 02Inside Virginia, Richmond ranks **#3 of 11** for 5-year HPI — top tier of its own state. Northern Virginia (DC suburbs) is the only one ahead.
- 03**Recent YoY is +4.33%** — strong, in the Pittsburgh/Cincinnati/Kansas City accelerator tier. Richmond is quietly running with the Midwest sleepers.
- 04U.S. metros ran **+34.3%** over the same window. Richmond outperformed by ~22pp — a large outperformance.
- 05The takeaway: Richmond is **the capital city accelerator**. Top 3 in Virginia for 5-year HPI, still climbing 4%+ YoY, with state government, Capital One, and Federal Reserve anchoring the labor market.
Where the value tier sits — top 5 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goochland County | $483,700 | $118,695 | 4.08× | moderate |
| Powhatan County | $381,300 | $110,667 | 3.45× | moderate |
| Hanover County | $372,700 | $109,504 | 3.40× | moderate |
| New Kent County | $371,500 | $120,125 | 3.09× | moderate |
| Chesterfield County | $336,700 | $98,910 | 3.40× | moderate |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,655
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
23.5% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 23.5% of their income — 0.3 points above the U.S. average (23.3%) 0.6 points above Virginia (22.9%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,507 | $18.1K | 21.4% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,655 | $19.9K | 23.5% | comfortable |
| 3 BR | $2,072 | $24.9K | 29.5% | moderate |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
3.3%
BLS LAUS · latest month
Richmond's labor market is healthy, with unemployment running at 3.3% — 0.7 points below the U.S. metros average (4.0%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
3.3%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$84,405
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
9,974
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+19.2% year-over-year
7.58 permits per 1,000 residents
Richmond pulled 9,974 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 19.2% year-over-year. That works out to 7.58 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
4,827
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
274
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
4,873
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 20 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Richmond city itself leads with 3,097 permits TTM** — unusual for a city this size, driven by an aggressive multifamily push downtown and along the Manchester/Scott's Addition corridors.
- 02**Henrico County** (suburbs north of the city — Glen Allen, Innsbrook, Short Pump) builds **2,205 permits = 6.62 per 1,000** — affluent western suburbs.
- 03**Chesterfield County** (suburbs south of the city — Midlothian, Brandermill) builds **2,083 permits = 5.69 per 1,000** — the southside growth corridor.
- 04**Hanover County** (Mechanicsville, Ashland) builds **502 permits = 4.54 per 1,000** — northern affluent exurb.
- 05Richmond runs **7.58 permits per 1,000 residents** — strong, well above the national 3.49. **48% single-family / 52% multifamily** mix is unusually multi-heavy. **Permit YoY is +19.2%** — accelerating fast.
How to read the map
- 01**Richmond city is the densest at 13.63 per 1,000** — extraordinarily high for a city core. Driven by multifamily.
- 02Goochland County (west) at **11.44 per 1,000** — affluent northwest exurb at $483,700 MHV.
- 03New Kent County (east) at **12.88 per 1,000** — small but high pace.
- 04Henrico (north) at **6.62**, Chesterfield (south) at **5.69** — large absolute volume in the inner-ring suburbs.
- 05**The pattern is heaviest in the urban core plus the affluent west.** Richmond city itself is a multifamily build hub — unusual for a metro this size. The southside (Chesterfield, Petersburg) is mostly single-family workforce.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chesterfield County | 366,019 | $98,910 | $336,700 | 2,083 | +10.9% |
| 2 | Henrico County | 333,120 | $86,397 | $333,600 | 2,205 | +38.8% |
| 3 | Richmond city | 227,171 | $62,671 | $328,100 | 3,097 | +5.3% |
| 4 | Hanover County | 110,513 | $109,504 | $372,700 | 502 | +37.2% |
| 5 | Prince George County | 42,634 | $88,225 | $268,300 | 150 | +138.1% |
| 6 | Louisa County | 38,106 | $80,343 | $275,600 | 393 | +17.0% |
| 7 | Petersburg city | 33,261 | $50,741 | $157,900 | 94 | |
| 8 | Caroline County | 31,181 | $86,267 | $283,100 | 221 | |
| 9 | Powhatan County | 30,503 | $110,667 | $381,300 | 127 | +32.3% |
| 10 | Dinwiddie County | 28,057 | $83,898 | $246,100 | 78 | +14.7% |
| 11 | Goochland County | 24,906 | $118,695 | $483,700 | 285 | +4.4% |
| 12 | New Kent County | 23,296 | $120,125 | $371,500 | 300 | |
| 13 | Hopewell city | 23,046 | $48,681 | $165,100 | 32 | |
| 14 | Colonial Heights city | 18,158 | $76,250 | $231,700 | 16 | +33.3% |
| 15 | King William County | 17,845 | $85,212 | $276,500 | 172 | +87.0% |
| 16 | Amelia County | 13,309 | $66,339 | $239,700 | 51 | +10.9% |
| 17 | Sussex County | 10,866 | $62,821 | $178,500 | 35 | +59.1% |
| 18 | Cumberland County | 9,697 | $57,057 | $220,100 | 72 | +14.3% |
| 19 | Charles City County | 6,760 | $70,339 | $224,100 | 25 | |
| 20 | King and Queen County | 6,681 | $72,851 | $240,900 | 36 | +50.0% |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Richmond by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Richmond is closest in size to Hartford, Salt Lake City, Raleigh, Louisville/Jefferson County.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Richmond is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Richmond | 1.32M | $84K | $326K | 3.86× | 4.0% | +56.0% | 7.58 | +0.27% | 3.3% |
Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, CT | 1.22M | $93K | $309K | 3.33× | 4.7% | +61.5% | — | — | — |
Salt Lake City, UT | 1.25M | $95K | $478K | 5.03× | 2.8% | +49.4% | 5.42 | -0.16% | — |
Raleigh-Cary, NC | 1.42M | $96K | $381K | 3.97× | 3.6% | +56.9% | 12.81 | +0.38% | — |
Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN | 1.28M | $72K | $236K | 3.30× | 4.2% | +45.5% | 4.78 | -0.02% | 3.1% |
Grand Rapids-Kentwood, MI | 1.09M | $80K | $262K | 3.26× | 4.6% | +59.5% | 4.12 | -0.02% | 4.0% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
+3,513
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
+0.27% of metro population
6,970 from top origin
Richmond absorbed +3,513 net IRS returns — +0.27% of population. Steady positive migration anchored by state government, Capital One, and the Federal Reserve Fifth District. The capital city catches both intra-Virginia movement and outbound DC-area households looking for cheaper entry.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Henrico County, VA | 6,970 |
| Richmond city, VA | 6,918 |
| Chesterfield County, VA | 5,591 |
| Hanover County, VA | 1,824 |
| Petersburg city, VA | 1,125 |
| Fairfax County, VA | 1,072 |
Who lives in Richmond
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 38.7
- Owner-occupancy
- 67.1%
- Bachelor's+
- 40.2%
Richmond relatively young Midwest metro: Median age 38.7, 67.1% owner-occupancy 40.2% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 48.8% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $84,405
- Median age
- 38.7
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 40.2%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 67.1%
- Vacancy rate
- 6.7%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 48.8%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026