Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
Tennessee's growth engine, building faster than almost any metro its size. Nashville pulled 19,029 permits over the trailing twelve months — nearly 10 per 1,000 residents — and absorbed +6,104 net IRS migrants — modest in absolute terms but still positive in a market where most metros are net flat or shrinking. The cap rate proxy sits at 3.6%, which means this is an appreciation play, not a cash-flow play.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
4.57×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Tennessee
- 3.49×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
moderate
Rent to income
25.2%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Tennessee
- 24.3%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
tight
Cap rate proxy
3.6%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Tennessee
- 4.4%
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
steady
Net migration
+0.31%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Tennessee
- 0.13%+0.18
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%+0.27
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
9.56
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Tennessee
- 4.59+4.97
- vs U.S.
- 3.49+6.07
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
very tight labor market
Unemployment
2.9%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Tennessee
- 3.5%-0.6
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%-1.1
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Nashville
Nashville is Tennessee's growth engine — and the federal data shows a metro running hot on every demand signal while pricing itself past the easy cash-flow math. The 1,990,873-resident, 14-county MSA pulled 19,029 building permits over the trailing twelve months, nearly 10 per 1,000 residents — almost three times the national rate. The FHFA Home Price Index posted +58.3% over five years, median household income sits at $82,499, and the metro absorbed +6,104 net IRS migrants in the most recent vintage — a migration rate of +0.31% of population that, while modest in absolute terms, is positive in a market where peer metros (Indianapolis, Columbus, Charlotte) cluster near zero or slightly negative (IRS Statistics of Income).
The story inside the metro splits into three tiers:
- Davidson County — the urban core. 5,706 permits (30% of the pipeline), but permit volume dropped –0.3% YoY. Median home value of $386,600 against a $75,664 HHI gives a price-to-income north of 5×. Cash flow is thin here.
- The suburban surge ring — Rutherford (3,166 permits, +12% YoY), Sumner (2,766, +65% YoY), and Wilson (1,993, +16%). These counties are absorbing the spillover from Davidson, and the YoY acceleration in Sumner is the sharpest in the metro.
- Williamson County — the outlier. Median HHI of $131,202 and a median home value of $673,700 make it a fundamentally different market. Fewer permits (1,590) because lots are expensive and zoning is restrictive.
The supply mix tilts hard to multifamily — 5,787 of those 19,029 permits are 5+ unit buildings (Census Building Permits Survey). The unemployment rate of 2.9% signals a labor market tight enough to sustain rent growth, and the 46.6% rent-burdened rate means nearly half of Nashville's renters are already stretched. The cap rate proxy sits at 3.6% — well below the deal-by-deal threshold and the state median (4.4%). Nashville is an appreciation market that happens to have a construction pipeline.
- If you're hunting cash flow — Nashville metro-level pricing won't pencil without creative structuring. Look at Maury County ($307K median, 1,417 permits) or Dickson County ($273K, +84% permit growth) for suburban cash-flow plays where the rent-to-price still works.
- If you're playing appreciation — the migration tailwind is positive but smaller than headlines suggest. The real structural bid under a $377K median home comes from the permit pipeline, the 2.9% unemployment rate, and the multifamily build-out — Nashville is still the demand magnet of the mid-South, just not at the extreme growth rates the cycle briefly implied. Williamson County is the premium bet; Sumner is the value bet.
- If you already own here — hold. The pipeline is large but so is the demand. Fair Market Rent at $1,730 for a 2BR is high enough to service most acquisition-era debt loads, and vacancy at 7.6% is manageable.
The agent must write a 3-paragraph editorial read of this metro here. The structured data above is the canonical source. Use bold for key data points, inline glossary links for technical terms (cap rate, HPI, FMR, building permits, MSA, migration pattern, appreciation, etc.), and inline external links ONLY for the federal data sources (census.gov, fhfa.gov, bls.gov, irs.gov, hud.gov). No commercial sources. Use bullet lists where the data is naturally list-shaped.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+58.3%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+2.5% YoY
$376,800 median home value
Nashville home prices climbed 58.3% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a steady appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change of 2.5% suggests steady appreciation continuing.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Nashville (teal, solid) sits structurally above both the Tennessee and U.S. metro averages — it's the premium market in a low-cost state.
- 02The 2021–2022 run-up was sharper in Nashville than nationally, reflecting pandemic migration into Sun Belt metros with no state income tax.
- 03Post-2023, Nashville's curve flattens closer to the national pace — the easy gains are behind, and the market is normalizing at a higher base.
- 04The 58.3% five-year gain means a $250K home bought in 2020 would appraise around $396K today — meaningful equity even without forced appreciation.
Where the value tier sits — top 5 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Williamson County | $673,700 | $131,202 | 5.13× | stretched |
| Wilson County | $397,000 | $94,048 | 4.22× | moderate |
| Davidson County | $386,600 | $75,664 | 5.11× | stretched |
| Sumner County | $364,000 | $86,005 | 4.23× | moderate |
| Rutherford County | $346,400 | $82,588 | 4.19× | moderate |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,730
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
25.2% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 25.2% of their income — 1.9 points above the U.S. average (23.3%) 0.9 points above Tennessee (24.3%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,578 | $18.9K | 23.0% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,730 | $20.8K | 25.2% | moderate |
| 3 BR | $2,211 | $26.5K | 32.2% | rent-burdened |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
2.9%
BLS LAUS · latest month
Nashville's labor market is tight, with unemployment running at 2.9% — 1.1 points below the U.S. metros average (4.0%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
2.9%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$82,499
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
19,029
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+19.0% year-over-year
9.56 permits per 1,000 residents
Nashville pulled 19,029 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 19.0% year-over-year. That works out to 9.56 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
13,112
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
130
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
5,787
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 14 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01Davidson County (5,706) accounts for 30% of the metro's pipeline — the urban core is still building, unlike Indianapolis where the core is contracting.
- 02Rutherford County (3,166, +11.6% YoY) is the largest suburban builder — Murfreesboro's I-24 corridor is absorbing the overflow from Davidson.
- 03Sumner County (2,766, +65% YoY) is the acceleration story — the fastest YoY growth of any county with meaningful volume.
- 04Williamson County (1,590) is the highest-income county ($131K HHI) but mid-pack on permits — it builds fewer because land costs are higher and lots are larger.
- 05The outer ring (Dickson +84%, Smith +47%, Cannon -29%) tells a classic exurban diffusion pattern — growth radiating outward from the core.
How to read the map
- 01Davidson (darkest teal, center) is the gravitational core — 5,706 permits concentrated in a county smaller by area than most of its suburban neighbors.
- 02The teal gradient radiates outward: Rutherford and Sumner are the next ring, Williamson and Wilson the third — a textbook concentric growth pattern.
- 03The southern and eastern outer counties (Hickman, Cannon, Trousdale) are barely shading — the growth wave hasn't reached them yet.
- 04No state border visible because Nashville is entirely within Tennessee — the surrounding context counties give geographic orientation instead.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Davidson County | 709,786 | $75,664 | $386,600 | 5,706 | |
| 2 | Rutherford County | 343,727 | $82,588 | $346,400 | 3,166 | +11.6% |
| 3 | Williamson County | 248,897 | $131,202 | $673,700 | 1,590 | +12.8% |
| 4 | Sumner County | 196,845 | $86,005 | $364,000 | 2,766 | +64.5% |
| 5 | Wilson County | 149,096 | $94,048 | $397,000 | 1,993 | +16.5% |
| 6 | Maury County | 102,002 | $74,162 | $307,500 | 1,417 | +13.0% |
| 7 | Robertson County | 73,297 | $78,439 | $296,700 | 881 | +11.7% |
| 8 | Dickson County | 54,563 | $73,223 | $272,700 | 593 | +83.6% |
| 9 | Cheatham County | 41,184 | $82,015 | $291,400 | 273 | +21.3% |
| 10 | Macon County | 25,365 | $56,269 | $211,200 | 174 | +10.8% |
| 11 | Hickman County | 24,996 | $57,223 | $192,000 | 117 | +17.0% |
| 12 | Smith County | 20,034 | $62,799 | $224,500 | 154 | +46.7% |
| 13 | Cannon County | 14,481 | $58,092 | $227,600 | 88 | |
| 14 | Trousdale County | 11,596 | $63,190 | $284,100 | 111 | +12.1% |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Nashville by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Best in 2 of 5 comparable metrics
Nashville is closest in size to Columbus, Indianapolis, Virginia Beach, Kansas City. best in class on Net migration, Permit pipeline, and behind on Cap rate proxy, Price to income.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Nashville is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Nashville | 1.99M | $82K | $377K | 4.57× | 3.6% | +58.3% | 9.56 | +0.31% | 2.9% |
Columbus | 2.14M | $80K | $274K | 3.44× | 4.1% | +54.6% | 7.54 | -0.08% | 3.6% |
Indianapolis | 2.11M | $77K | $244K | 3.17× | 4.7% | +53.0% | 5.91 | +0.02% | 2.5% |
Virginia Beach | 1.80M | $81K | $318K | 3.95× | 4.2% | +50.3% | 2.13 | -0.06% | — |
Kansas City | 2.19M | $82K | $265K | 3.24× | 4.0% | +51.8% | 4.11 | +0.00% | 3.5% |
Cincinnati | 2.25M | $79K | $240K | 3.02× | 4.4% | +57.1% | 3.52 | -0.06% | 3.6% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
+6,104
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
+0.31% of metro population
12,199 from top origin
Nashville absorbed +6,104 net IRS migrants (+0.31% of population) — modest in absolute terms but still positive in a peer set where most metros are flat or shrinking. The Sun Belt magnetism is fading but hasn't reversed.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Davidson County, TN | 12,199 |
| Williamson County, TN | 4,374 |
| Rutherford County, TN | 3,947 |
| Sumner County, TN | 2,963 |
| Wilson County, TN | 2,357 |
| Montgomery County, TN | 1,572 |
Who lives in Nashville
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 36.8
- Owner-occupancy
- 65.6%
- Bachelor's+
- 39.9%
Nashville relatively young Midwest metro: Median age 36.8, 65.6% owner-occupancy 39.9% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 46.6% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $82,499
- Median age
- 36.8
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 39.9%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 65.6%
- Vacancy rate
- 7.6%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 46.6%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026