St. Louis, MO-IL
America's most affordable major metro. St Louis is the only queue metro with an 'affordable' P/I label (2.97). HPI is +4.01% YoY — the best recent print in the queue — and +46.7% over 5 years. FMR 2BR $1,218 (lowest), R/I 18.7% (most comfortable), city MHV $185,100.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
affordable
Price to income
2.97×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Missouri
- 2.93×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×-0.46
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
18.7%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Missouri
- 19.4%-0.7
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%-4.6
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
4.1%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Missouri
- 4.0%+0.1
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
shrinking
Net migration
-0.12%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Missouri
- -0.02%
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
2.21
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Missouri
- 2.99
- vs U.S.
- 3.49
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
healthy
Unemployment
3.5%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Missouri
- 3.5%=
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%-0.5
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about St. Louis
St Louis is America's most affordable major metro. Across 17 counties — 8 in Missouri plus 9 in Illinois — the metro packs 2.81 million residents with a household income of $78,225 (Census ACS) and a median home value of $232,100 — the second-cheapest in the queue after Detroit. The HUD Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom is $1,218 — the lowest in the queue. The House Price Index ran +46.7% over five years (FHFA HPI) — beating the country by ~12pp — and YoY is +4.01%, the BEST recent print of any major metro in the queue.
The interesting fact is that St Louis is the only queue metro with an "affordable" price-to-income label at 2.97. Everything is workable here: P/I 2.97 (affordable), R/I 18.7% (the most comfortable in the queue), cap rate proxy 4.1% (deal-by-deal). And St Louis is accelerating: while Tampa, Atlanta, Dallas, SF, and Seattle have all flipped negative on YoY HPI, St Louis is up +4.01% — the strongest acceleration in the cohort.
The 17-county geometry spans the Mississippi River:
- St. Charles County (406K pop, $296,800 median home value) — the western Missouri exurb — leads with 1,732 building permits TTM (28% of the metro). O'Fallon, St. Peters, and Lake Saint Louis are the headline growth corridors.
- St. Louis County (1M pop, $260,700) — the suburban donut around the city — adds 895 permits.
- Jefferson (227K pop) and Franklin (105K pop) add 698 + 628 permits — south + west exurbs.
- 5 small Illinois counties (Madison, St. Clair, Monroe, plus a few smaller) combine for ~1,300 permits — the metro's east side anchored by Belleville and Edwardsville.
- St. Louis city itself (298K pop, $185,100 MHV — second-cheapest urban core in queue after Detroit's Wayne County) permits only 276 units — slow.
St Louis runs 2.21 permits per 1,000 residents — at the Missouri state median but below the national 3.49. Permit YoY is +15.7%.
What's changing: net IRS migration is −3,493 returns (IRS SOI) — essentially flat (−0.12% of population). Top origins are intra-metro. Unemployment is 3.5%, tighter than the national 4.0%. Owner-occupancy is 70.1% — top tier. Inside Missouri, St Louis ranks #8 of 9 for 5-year HPI in a tight band.
What does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow: St Louis is the play. The only queue metro with an "affordable" P/I label, the lowest FMR rent, the lowest R/I, and a workable cap rate proxy at the median. St Louis CITY itself ($185,100 MHV) is the deepest cash-flow opportunity in any major Midwest metro.
- If you're playing appreciation: St Louis is the trend-positive metro of the cohort. +4.01% YoY beats every other major queue metro. The structural Midwest pricing combined with accelerating recent prints is the cycle setup.
- If you already own here: Stay. The labor market is tight, the build pipeline is moderate, and the YoY trend is the strongest in the queue.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+46.7%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+4.0% YoY
$232,100 median home value
St. Louis home prices climbed 46.7% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a steady appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change of 4.0% suggests steady appreciation continuing.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01St Louis's index ran from ~191 in early 2020 to ~280 in Q4 2025. The **+46.7% 5-year change** in the card above is the canonical figure (Q4 2020 → Q4 2025) — beating the country by ~12pp, the second-largest gap of any major queue metro outside Phoenix and Miami.
- 02The Missouri state line tracks St Louis closely — St Louis is ~46% of MO metro population, with KC making up the rest.
- 03U.S. metros climbed **+34.3%** over the same window. St Louis beat the country by 12pp — surprisingly strong for a Midwest metro.
- 04The most recent quarter is **+4.01% YoY** — **the BEST recent print of any major metro in the queue**. While Atlanta, Dallas, Tampa, SF, and Seattle have all flipped negative, St Louis is accelerating.
- 05Inside Missouri, St Louis ranks **#8 of 9** for 5-year HPI — the smaller MO metros (Springfield, Joplin, Columbia) ran slightly faster from a lower base.
Where the value tier sits — top 5 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Charles County | $296,800 | $102,912 | 2.88× | affordable |
| Monroe County | $265,600 | $101,635 | 2.61× | affordable |
| St. Louis County | $260,700 | $81,340 | 3.21× | moderate |
| Warren County | $241,200 | $77,989 | 3.09× | moderate |
| Lincoln County | $224,800 | $85,276 | 2.64× | affordable |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,218
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
18.7% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 18.7% of their income — 4.6 points below the U.S. average (23.3%) 0.7 points below Missouri (19.4%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $995 | $11.9K | 15.3% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,218 | $14.6K | 18.7% | comfortable |
| 3 BR | $1,568 | $18.8K | 24.1% | comfortable |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
3.5%
BLS LAUS · latest month
St. Louis's labor market is healthy, with unemployment running at 3.5% — 0.5 points below the U.S. metros average (4.0%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
3.5%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$78,225
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
6,211
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+15.7% year-over-year
2.21 permits per 1,000 residents
St. Louis pulled 6,211 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 15.7% year-over-year. That works out to 2.21 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
4,326
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
413
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
1,472
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 17 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**St. Charles County (the western MO exurb) leads with 1,732 permits TTM** — 28% of the metro's 6,211-unit total. O'Fallon, St. Peters, and Lake Saint Louis are the headline growth corridors.
- 02St. Louis County (the suburban donut) follows with **895 permits**. Despite 1M residents, the inner-suburb pace is moderate.
- 03Jefferson and Franklin counties (south + west exurbs) add **698 + 628** permits — secondary growth corridors.
- 04St. Louis CITY itself permits only **276 units** — the city is rebuilding within its 298K-resident footprint, slowly.
- 05St Louis runs **2.21 permits per 1,000 residents** — at the Missouri state median but below the national 3.49. **Permit YoY is +15.7%**, moderate ramp.
How to read the map
- 01**St. Charles County (the western MO exurb) is the densest at 4.27 per 1,000** — well above the metro average. The headline growth zone.
- 02Warren County (west of St Charles, 36K pop) has 378 permits = 10.58 per 1,000 — the highest exurb pace in the metro.
- 03St. Louis city itself only 0.93 per 1,000 — bare minimum activity. The historic city core is structurally constrained.
- 04The 9 Illinois counties (Madison, St. Clair, Macoupin, Clinton, Monroe, Jersey, Bond, Calhoun) combined add **1,300 permits** — the metro's east side, anchored by Belleville and Edwardsville.
- 05**The build pattern shows the metro's westward migration.** St. Charles and Warren MO build harder per-capita than the IL side or the city core. Growth is moving up I-70 and I-64 west of the Mississippi.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Louis County | 999,703 | $81,340 | $260,700 | 895 | |
| 2 | St. Charles County | 406,262 | $102,912 | $296,800 | 1,732 | |
| 3 | St. Louis city | 298,018 | $55,279 | $185,100 | 276 | +78.1% |
| 4 | Madison County | 265,512 | $74,800 | $167,900 | 482 | +76.6% |
| 5 | St. Clair County | 256,791 | $70,178 | $168,800 | 487 | |
| 6 | Jefferson County | 226,984 | $80,522 | $218,800 | 698 | +5.6% |
| 7 | Franklin County | 104,858 | $71,973 | $214,900 | 628 | +7.9% |
| 8 | Lincoln County | 60,172 | $85,276 | $224,800 | 305 | +125.9% |
| 9 | Macoupin County | 44,907 | $68,518 | $126,100 | 60 | +9.1% |
| 10 | Clinton County | 36,998 | $82,314 | $180,500 | 52 | +8.3% |
| 11 | Warren County | 35,729 | $77,989 | $241,200 | 378 | +0.8% |
| 12 | Monroe County | 34,905 | $101,635 | $265,600 | 65 | +20.4% |
| 13 | Washington County | 23,580 | $51,886 | $118,400 | 0 | — |
| 14 | Crawford County | 23,023 | $56,345 | $166,000 | 19 | |
| 15 | Jersey County | 21,462 | $79,104 | $168,800 | 104 | +22.4% |
| 16 | Bond County | 16,750 | $61,603 | $133,100 | 24 | |
| 17 | Calhoun County | 4,472 | $92,095 | $174,000 | 6 |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to St. Louis by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Best in 1 of 3 comparable metrics
St. Louis is closest in size to Charlotte, Orlando, San Antonio, Tampa. best in class on Unemployment, and behind on Cap rate proxy.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. St. Louis is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★St. Louis | 2.81M | $78K | $232K | 2.97× | 4.1% | +46.7% | 2.21 | -0.12% | 3.5% |
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC | 2.67M | $80K | $319K | 3.98× | 4.1% | +63.8% | 7.59 | +0.35% | — |
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL | 2.68M | $76K | $339K | 4.48× | 4.5% | +58.1% | 9.39 | +0.40% | 4.4% |
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX | 2.57M | $74K | $259K | 3.48× | 4.3% | +41.5% | 3.93 | +0.45% | 3.7% |
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL | 3.19M | $71K | $306K | 4.30× | 5.0% | +42.8% | 6.92 | +0.70% | 4.6% |
Pittsburgh, PA | 2.37M | $74K | $205K | 2.77× | 5.0% | +42.4% | 2.17 | -0.13% | 3.6% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
-3,493
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
-0.12% of metro population
14,254 from top origin
St Louis lost −3,493 net IRS returns — essentially flat at −0.12% of population. The top out-migration origins are all inside Missouri (St. Louis County, St. Louis city, St. Charles, Jefferson) plus Madison IL — intra-metro shuffle, not interstate exit.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| St. Louis County, MO | 14,254 |
| St. Louis city, MO | 9,191 |
| St. Charles County, MO | 5,498 |
| Jefferson County, MO | 3,042 |
| Madison County, IL | 2,970 |
| St. Clair County, IL | 2,868 |
Who lives in St. Louis
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 39.8
- Owner-occupancy
- 70.1%
- Bachelor's+
- 37.6%
St. Louis relatively young Midwest metro: Median age 39.8, 70.1% owner-occupancy 37.6% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 42.4% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $78,225
- Median age
- 39.8
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 37.6%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 70.1%
- Vacancy rate
- 8.9%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 42.4%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026