San Juan-Bayamón-Caguas, PR

San Juan-Bayamón-Caguas is Puerto Rico's anchor MSA — 2.07 million residents spread across 40 municipios, roughly 60% of the island's entire population. The metro's Home Price Index surged +42.2% over five years on FHFA's territory-wide series, with a +8.9% year-over-year jump in Q4 2025. Median home values sit at $138,700 against a median household income of $27,966, pushing the price-to-income ratio to 4.96 — moderate by island standards but nearly 1.5× the national median of 3.43. HUD Fair Market Rent for a 2BR is $663, the lowest of any metro in the hub network. Unemployment runs at 4.4%, slightly above the national median but well below Puerto Rico's state median of 7.9%.

Three federal data gaps shape this page. FHFA does not publish a per-metro House Price Index for Puerto Rico — the series shown is territory-wide, shared by San Juan, Ponce, Mayagüez, and all 8 PR metros. The Census Building Permits Survey does not cover Puerto Rico municipios, so the supply pipeline section is absent. And IRS Statistics of Income does not publish county-to-county migration flows for PR — the migration section shows no data, not because nobody moves, but because the federal feed doesn't track it. Despite these gaps, the metro's affordability profile, demographic weight, and HPI trajectory tell a clear story:

• Guaynabo leads on income — $46,048 median HHI, the highest of any municipio, with a median home value of $214,500 that reflects its affluent suburban character
• San Juan proper anchors the metro at 340,903 residents and a $171,400 median home value, the densest municipio by far
• Bayamón and Carolina form the second ring — populations above 150,000 each, median home values of $143,400 and $152,300 respectively
• Orocovis and Yabucoa sit at the bottom — median home values under $100,000, median HHI under $21,000, and populations below 30,000
• The metro's 19.5% vacancy rate is the highest in the hub network, reflecting post-Hurricane Maria displacement and ongoing population loss — a structural feature, not a seasonal blip

Owner-occupancy runs at 67.8%, well above the national median, and 31.5% of renters are cost-burdened — paying more than 30% of income on housing. The median age of 44 skews older than the mainland average. Puerto Rico's Act 60 (formerly Acts 20/22) tax incentives continue to attract mainland relocators, particularly in crypto, finance, and remote tech — a demand driver that the federal migration data cannot capture. The cap rate proxy sits at 3.7%, tight by any standard, which means investors hunting cash flow face thin margins at market rents.

• If you're hunting cash flow — the math is difficult at a 3.7% cap rate proxy and $663 FMR. You need below-market acquisition prices or short-term rental premiums (Dorado, Rincón, Isla Verde corridors) to make the numbers work.
• If you're playing appreciation — the +42.2% five-year HPI gain is real, but it's a territory-wide index, not a San Juan-specific signal. Post-hurricane rebuilding, Act 60 demand, and mainland capital inflows have fueled the run. Whether it sustains depends on population trends the federal data can't track.
• If you already own here — a $138,700 median home value with +8.9% YoY appreciation means your equity is growing fast in percentage terms, even if dollar amounts are modest. The vacancy rate is the risk to watch — 19.5% means the renter pool is thin in outer municipios.