Kansas City, MO-KS
Another quiet Midwest accelerator. Kansas City ran HPI +51.8% over 5 years (right behind Phoenix and Miami) and is still climbing at +4.54% YoY (top three recent prints in the queue). Bi-state metro across MO and KS, 14 counties, median home ,400. Cap rate proxy 3.99%, rent-to-income 19.9% (lowest in queue). Permits up +38.3% YoY. The fourth Midwest sleeper story alongside St. Louis, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
3.24×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Missouri
- 2.93×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×-0.19
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
19.9%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Missouri
- 19.4%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%-3.4
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
tight
Cap rate proxy
4.0%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Missouri
- 4.0%
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
steady
Net migration
+0.00%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Missouri
- -0.02%+0.02
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
4.11
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Missouri
- 2.99+1.12
- vs U.S.
- 3.49+0.62
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
healthy
Unemployment
3.5%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Missouri
- 3.5%=
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%-0.5
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Kansas City
Kansas City is the fourth quiet Midwest accelerator. Across 14 counties — 9 in Missouri plus 5 in Kansas — the metro packs 2.19 million residents with a household income of $81,927 (Census ACS) and a median home value of $265,400. The HUD Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom is $1,358. The House Price Index ran +51.8% over five years (FHFA HPI) — right behind Phoenix (+53.8%) and Miami (+55.3%), and just ahead of Las Vegas (+52.3%). Hidden Sun Belt territory.
The interesting fact is that Kansas City is the fourth Midwest sleeper, joining St. Louis, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh in the quietly-accelerating bucket. YoY HPI is +4.54% — top three recent prints in the queue, alongside Pittsburgh (+4.74%), Cincinnati (+4.53%), and St. Louis (+4.01%). All four Midwest metros are running 4-5% YoY HPI while the Sun Belt cools. The cap rate proxy is 3.99% — borderline workable, just below the 4.4% national figure. Rent-to-income is 19.9% — comfortable, the lowest in the queue (most affordable rents relative to income).
The 14-county geometry is bi-state, dominated by 4 counties:
- Jackson County, MO (716K pop, $213,300 MHV) leads with 3,664 permits TTM = 5.12 per 1,000 — KC proper plus Lee's Summit, Independence, Blue Springs. 41% of pipeline.
- Johnson County, KS (611K pop, $366,000 MHV) is #2 with 2,956 permits = 4.84 per 1,000 — Overland Park, Olathe. The affluent Kansas suburbs.
- Wyandotte County, KS (168K pop, $152,700 MHV) builds 649 permits = 3.86 per 1,000 — Kansas City KS, the workforce belt at the metro's lowest entry price.
Kansas City runs 4.11 permits per 1,000 residents — above national 3.49 and the Missouri state median (2.99). Permit YoY is +38.3% — accelerating fast. The state line matters: cross the river from MO to KS and you swap a $213K median (Jackson) for a $366K median (Johnson) — same metro, very different submarket.
What's changing: net IRS migration is +38 returns (IRS SOI) — effectively zero, +0.002% of population. The price action is coming entirely from supply tightness and labor market strength. Unemployment is 3.5%, tighter than the national 4.0% and matching the Missouri state median. Owner-occupancy 65.6%, bachelor's-or-higher 39.2% — settled, educated, employed. Inside Missouri, KC is #2 by population, #2 by permits, #7 of 9 by 5-year HPI.
What does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow: Wyandotte County, KS is the workforce play. $152,700 median home with $1,358 FMR equals one of the best yields in the metro. Jackson County's east-side neighborhoods (Independence, Raytown) are similar. Skip Johnson County KS — those are appreciation plays at $366K.
- If you're playing appreciation: Kansas City is one of the best in the queue. +51.8% over 5 years AND +4.54% YoY says the trend is intact. Johnson County KS is the affluent appreciation pocket; Jackson County MO is the lower-entry version.
- If you already own here: Hold and lean in. Migration is flat (neither tailwind nor drag), the labor market is strong, the price index is climbing, and supply just started catching up. KC is the bi-state Midwest sleeper that should be on more shortlists.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+51.8%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+4.5% YoY
$265,400 median home value
Kansas City home prices climbed 51.8% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a steady appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change of 4.5% suggests steady appreciation continuing.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Kansas City ran **+51.8% over five years** — right behind Phoenix (+53.8%) and Miami (+55.3%), and just ahead of Las Vegas (+52.3%). Hidden Sun Belt territory in the Midwest.
- 02Inside Missouri, Kansas City ranks **#7 of 9** for 5-year HPI — middle of the pack. The smaller MO metros (Springfield, Columbia) ran harder. But KC dwarfs them on absolute size.
- 03**Recent YoY is +4.54%** — top three recent prints in the queue, alongside Pittsburgh (+4.74%), Cincinnati (+4.53%), and St. Louis (+4.01%). The Midwest acceleration story is real.
- 04U.S. metros ran **+34.3%** over the same window. Kansas City outperformed by ~17pp — quietly one of the better major-metro runs.
- 05The takeaway: Kansas City is the **fourth Midwest sleeper**, joining St. Louis, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh in the quietly-accelerating bucket. None of them are in the headlines and all four are running 4-5% YoY HPI.
Where the value tier sits — top 5 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnson County | $366,000 | $107,261 | 3.41× | moderate |
| Platte County | $317,600 | $95,748 | 3.32× | moderate |
| Miami County | $277,700 | $88,000 | 3.16× | moderate |
| Cass County | $269,000 | $87,413 | 3.08× | moderate |
| Leavenworth County | $260,600 | $86,906 | 3.00× | affordable |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,358
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
19.9% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 19.9% of their income — 3.4 points below the U.S. average (23.3%) 0.5 points above Missouri (19.4%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,197 | $14.4K | 17.5% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,358 | $16.3K | 19.9% | comfortable |
| 3 BR | $1,769 | $21.2K | 25.9% | moderate |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
3.5%
BLS LAUS · latest month
Kansas City's labor market is healthy, with unemployment running at 3.5% — 0.5 points below the U.S. metros average (4.0%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
3.5%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$81,927
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
8,997
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+38.3% year-over-year
4.11 permits per 1,000 residents
Kansas City pulled 8,997 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 38.3% year-over-year. That works out to 4.11 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
5,167
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
281
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
3,549
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 14 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Jackson County, MO leads with 3,664 permits TTM** — Kansas City proper plus Lee's Summit, Independence, Blue Springs. 41% of the metro pipeline.
- 02**Johnson County, KS is #2 with 2,956 permits = 4.84 per 1,000** — Overland Park, Olathe, Lenexa. The most expensive county in the metro at $366,000 MHV. The affluent Kansas suburbs.
- 03**Wyandotte County, KS** (Kansas City KS, the affordable side) builds **649 permits = 3.86 per 1,000** with $152,700 MHV — the workforce belt of the metro.
- 04Cass and Platte counties (MO suburbs south and northwest) each add **235-475 permits** — slow southern and northern growth.
- 05Kansas City runs **4.11 permits per 1,000 residents** — well above the national 3.49 and the Missouri state median (2.99). **Permit YoY is +38.3%** — accelerating fast. Builders are catching up to the price action.
How to read the map
- 01**Jackson County, MO is densest at 5.12 per 1,000** — KC proper plus Lee's Summit and Independence. The MO core is where most of the absolute volume lives.
- 02Johnson County, KS (the affluent KS suburbs) at **4.84 per 1,000** — Overland Park, Olathe. High dollar, high builder activity, the wealthy bedroom community.
- 03Wyandotte County, KS (the workforce KS side) at **3.86 per 1,000** — moderate pace at the metro's lowest entry price.
- 04Cass County (MO south) at **4.39 per 1,000** — exurban suburbs.
- 05**The state line matters here.** Cross the river from MO to KS and you swap a $213K median (Jackson) for a $366K median (Johnson) — same metro, very different submarket. The MO side has the workforce + affordable plays; the KS side has the affluent suburban buyer.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jackson County | 715,526 | $67,178 | $213,300 | 3,664 | +4.3% |
| 2 | Johnson County | 610,742 | $107,261 | $366,000 | 2,956 | +33.5% |
| 3 | Clay County | 253,085 | $86,150 | $256,400 | 208 | |
| 4 | Wyandotte County | 167,989 | $60,582 | $152,700 | 649 | +344.5% |
| 5 | Cass County | 108,205 | $87,413 | $269,000 | 475 | +6.5% |
| 6 | Platte County | 107,033 | $95,748 | $317,600 | 235 | |
| 7 | Leavenworth County | 82,050 | $86,906 | $260,600 | 289 | |
| 8 | Miami County | 34,312 | $88,000 | $277,700 | 120 | +37.9% |
| 9 | Lafayette County | 32,858 | $79,091 | $200,300 | 115 | +43.8% |
| 10 | Ray County | 23,122 | $72,152 | $187,400 | 67 | +34.0% |
| 11 | Clinton County | 21,155 | $70,625 | $204,300 | 86 | +41.0% |
| 12 | Bates County | 16,101 | $57,914 | $154,800 | 8 | +700.0% |
| 13 | Linn County | 9,696 | $59,200 | $164,500 | 94 | +36.2% |
| 14 | Caldwell County | 8,876 | $62,520 | $156,700 | 31 |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Kansas City by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Kansas City is closest in size to Columbus, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Nashville.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Kansas City is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Kansas City | 2.19M | $82K | $265K | 3.24× | 4.0% | +51.8% | 4.11 | +0.00% | 3.5% |
Columbus, OH | 2.14M | $80K | $274K | 3.44× | 4.1% | +54.6% | 7.54 | -0.08% | 3.6% |
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN | 2.25M | $79K | $240K | 3.02× | 4.4% | +57.1% | 3.52 | -0.06% | 3.6% |
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN | 2.11M | $77K | $244K | 3.17× | 4.7% | +53.0% | 5.91 | +0.02% | 2.5% |
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN | 1.99M | $82K | $377K | 4.57× | 3.6% | +58.3% | 9.56 | +0.31% | 2.9% |
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV | 2.27M | $74K | $401K | 5.43× | 3.4% | +52.3% | 5.87 | +0.45% | 5.2% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
+38
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
+0.00% of metro population
10,131 from top origin
Kansas City was flat on net IRS migration — just +38 returns, effectively zero (+0.002% of population). The metro is neither growing nor shrinking on a household basis. The price action is coming entirely from supply tightness and the labor market.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Jackson County, MO | 10,131 |
| Johnson County, KS | 7,219 |
| Clay County, MO | 5,186 |
| Wyandotte County, KS | 3,598 |
| Platte County, MO | 2,957 |
| Cass County, MO | 1,839 |
Who lives in Kansas City
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 37.8
- Owner-occupancy
- 65.6%
- Bachelor's+
- 39.2%
Kansas City relatively young Midwest metro: Median age 37.8, 65.6% owner-occupancy 39.2% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 42.5% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $81,927
- Median age
- 37.8
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 39.2%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 65.6%
- Vacancy rate
- 7.2%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 42.5%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026