Greenville-Anderson, SC
The textile-to-tech transition metro. Greenville ran HPI **+64.9% over 5 years** — best Sun Belt territory — on a $242K median. **Permits 8.85 per 1,000** (more than 2.5x national). Permit YoY **+19.1%** accelerating. Migration **+3,005 (+0.32%) steady**, the best inflow rate of any T5 metro. P/I 3.52 moderate, R/I 23.3% comfortable, cap proxy 4.30% workable. 4-county SC Upcountry metro anchored by BMW assembly, Michelin HQ, Bosch, GE Power, ICAR.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
3.52×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs South Carolina
- 3.42×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
23.3%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs South Carolina
- 25.5%-2.2
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
4.3%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs South Carolina
- 4.4%
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
steady
Net migration
+0.32%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs South Carolina
- 0.37%
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%+0.29
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
8.85
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs South Carolina
- 8.93
- vs U.S.
- 3.49+5.37
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
4.6%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs South Carolina
- 4.6%=
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Greenville
Greenville is the textile-to-tech transition metro. Across 4 counties — Greenville at the core plus Anderson, Pickens, and Laurens — the metro packs 931,000 residents with a household income of $69,016 (Census ACS) and a median home value of $242,700. The HUD Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom is $1,339 — among the cheapest in the queue. The House Price Index ran +64.9% over five years (FHFA HPI) — top-tier Sun Belt territory, beating the U.S. metros average of +34.3% by 30 percentage points.
The interesting fact is that Greenville hits all four positive signals at once: 5-year HPI +64.9% (top tier), recent YoY +3.96% (still hot), permit pipeline 8.85 per 1,000 (2.5x national, top-tier Sun Belt), and migration +3,005 (+0.32%) — the strongest inflow rate of any T5 metro in the queue. The price-to-income ratio is 3.52 (moderate) and the cap rate proxy is 4.30% (workable). Inside South Carolina, Greenville ranks #1 of 10 by population, #1 by permits, #5 by 5-year HPI — Charleston, Myrtle Beach, Hilton Head, Bluffton/Beaufort all ran harder on price action, but Greenville is the structural anchor of the SC Upcountry.
The 4-county geometry runs uniformly hot — every county builds at >6.6/1k:
- Greenville County (528K pop, $273,900 MHV) leads with 5,032 permits TTM = 9.53 per 1,000 — Greenville proper plus Mauldin, Simpsonville, Greer, Travelers Rest. 61% of the metro pipeline.
- Anderson County (205K pop, $212,500 MHV) builds 1,491 permits = 7.29 per 1,000 — Anderson, Powdersville, Williamston. Strong secondary build along I-85 toward Atlanta.
- Pickens County (131K pop, $216,000 MHV) issues 868 permits = 6.62 per 1,000 — Easley, Clemson, Pickens, Liberty. Anchored by Clemson University.
- Laurens County (67K pop, $153,500 MHV) issues 854 permits = 12.66 per 1,000 — the density leader of the metro by per-capita rate.
Greenville runs 8.85 permits per 1,000 residents — 2.5x the national 3.49, top of the Sun Belt build rate. The 89% single-family / 8% 5+ multifamily mix is heavy SFR — typical Sun Belt sprawl. Permit YoY +19.1% — strong sustained acceleration. Unlike most metros where 1-2 counties dominate, every Greenville metro county builds at >6.6/1k. The Upcountry is a contiguous growth corridor along I-85.
What's changing: net IRS migration is +3,005 returns (IRS SOI) — +0.32% of population, the best inflow rate of any T5 metro in the queue. The Upcountry is pulling households from the Northeast (cost refugees), the Midwest (rust-belt outflows), and the Atlanta exurbs (commute escapes). Owner-occupancy 70.6%, bachelor's-or-higher 33.7%, median age 38.8. The labor market is anchored by BMW (the Spartanburg X-series assembly plant 30 miles east of Greenville is BMW's largest plant globally), Michelin (NA HQ), Bosch, Lockheed Martin, GE Power, the International Center for Automotive Research (ICAR) and Clemson University, Prisma Health (the largest healthcare system in SC), and the textile-to-advanced-manufacturing reinvention.
What does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow: Greenville works. 4.30% cap proxy on a $242K median is workable, and the strong inflow rate gives demand support. Look at Greenville County's working-class neighborhoods (West Greenville, Nicholtown, Sterling) and the Anderson/Mauldin corridor for $180K-$240K SFR with strong rent ratios.
- If you're playing appreciation: Greenville is best-of-class. +64.9% over 5 years AND +0.32% migration AND +19.1% permit acceleration is the rare metro that hits all three positives. Within SC, the coastal metros (Charleston, Myrtle Beach) ran harder but Greenville's structural fundamentals (BMW, Michelin, ICAR) are stickier than tourism-driven coastal markets.
- If you already own here: Hold and add. The Upcountry corridor along I-85 is building out from Spartanburg through Greenville to Anderson — pick the pre-buildout exurbs in Anderson/Laurens for the next leg.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+64.9%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+4.0% YoY
$242,700 median home value
Greenville home prices climbed 64.9% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a strong appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change of 4.0% suggests steady appreciation continuing.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Greenville ran **+64.9% over five years** — top-tier Sun Belt territory, beating the U.S. metros average (+34.3%) by **30 percentage points**.
- 02**Recent YoY is +3.96%** — strong, healthy. Not the moonshot Sun Belt rate of 2021-2022 but well above any cooled metro.
- 03Inside South Carolina, Greenville ranks **#5 of 10** for 5-year HPI — Charleston, Myrtle Beach, Hilton Head, Bluffton/Beaufort all ran harder. **#1 by population, #1 by permits**.
- 04U.S. metros ran **+34.3%** over the same window. Greenville outperformed by ~30 points — Sun Belt-grade compounding on a sub-$250K base.
- 05The takeaway: Greenville is **the textile-to-tech compound metro** — top-tier 5-year price action, sustained YoY, and the auto/manufacturing employment base means the cycle has legs.
Where the value tier sits — top 4 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greenville County | $273,900 | $74,624 | 3.67× | moderate |
| Pickens County | $216,000 | $59,411 | 3.64× | moderate |
| Anderson County | $212,500 | $64,683 | 3.29× | moderate |
| Laurens County | $153,500 | $55,517 | 2.76× | affordable |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,339
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
23.3% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 23.3% of their income — right at the U.S. average (23.3%) 2.2 points below South Carolina (25.5%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,221 | $14.7K | 21.2% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,339 | $16.1K | 23.3% | comfortable |
| 3 BR | $1,612 | $19.3K | 28.0% | moderate |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
4.6%
BLS LAUS · latest month
Greenville's labor market is softening, with unemployment running at 4.6% — 0.6 points above the U.S. metros average (4.0%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
4.6%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$69,016
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
8,245
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+19.1% year-over-year
8.85 permits per 1,000 residents
Greenville pulled 8,245 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 19.1% year-over-year. That works out to 8.85 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
7,332
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
232
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
681
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 4 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Greenville County leads with 5,032 TTM permits = 9.53 per 1,000** — Greenville proper plus Mauldin, Simpsonville, Greer, Travelers Rest. 61% of the metro pipeline.
- 02**Anderson County** (Anderson, Powdersville, Williamston) builds **1,491 permits = 7.29 per 1,000** — strong secondary county on I-85 toward Atlanta.
- 03**Laurens County** (Laurens, Clinton) issues **854 permits = 12.66 per 1,000** — small but the **density leader** of the metro by per-capita rate. Rural exurban growth.
- 04**Pickens County** (Easley, Clemson, Pickens, Liberty) builds **868 permits = 6.62 per 1,000** — anchored by Clemson University.
- 05Greenville runs **8.85 permits per 1,000 residents** — **2.5x the national 3.49**, top of the Sun Belt build rate. **Permit YoY is +19.1%** — strong sustained acceleration.
How to read the map
- 01**Laurens County (south, smallest population) is densest at 12.66 per 1,000** — Laurens, Clinton. Small exurb growing fastest by rate (off a low base).
- 02**Greenville County (the urban core) at 9.53 per 1,000** — Greenville proper plus Mauldin, Simpsonville, Greer, Travelers Rest. Large absolute volume (5,032 permits) at high per-capita.
- 03**Anderson County (southwest, toward Atlanta) at 7.29 per 1,000** — Anderson, Powdersville, Williamston. Strong secondary build along I-85.
- 04**Pickens County (west, toward Clemson) at 6.62 per 1,000** — Easley, Clemson, Pickens, Liberty. Anchored by Clemson University.
- 05**The pattern is uniformly high.** Unlike most metros where 1-2 counties dominate and the rest are dead, every Greenville metro county builds at >6.6/1k. The Upcountry is a contiguous growth corridor along I-85 from Spartanburg through Greenville to Anderson.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Greenville County | 528,251 | $74,624 | $273,900 | 5,032 | +14.8% |
| 2 | Anderson County | 204,592 | $64,683 | $212,500 | 1,491 | +39.1% |
| 3 | Pickens County | 131,106 | $59,411 | $216,000 | 868 | |
| 4 | Laurens County | 67,456 | $55,517 | $153,500 | 854 | +55.3% |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Greenville by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Best in 1 of 3 comparable metrics
Greenville is closest in size to Albuquerque, Bakersfield, Knoxville, Baton Rouge. best in class on Net migration, and behind on Unemployment.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Greenville is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Greenville | 0.93M | $69K | $243K | 3.52× | 4.3% | +64.9% | 8.85 | +0.32% | 4.6% |
Albuquerque, NM | 0.92M | $68K | $264K | 3.88× | 4.3% | +53.2% | — | +0.01% | — |
Bakersfield, CA | 0.91M | $68K | $311K | 4.59× | 3.7% | +48.5% | 3.25 | +0.02% | — |
Knoxville, TN | 0.88M | $70K | $255K | 3.66× | 4.5% | +77.4% | 9.10 | +0.16% | — |
Baton Rouge, LA | 0.87M | $69K | $232K | 3.37× | 4.0% | +27.6% | 5.00 | -0.03% | 3.7% |
Fresno, CA | 1.01M | $72K | $363K | 5.05× | 3.6% | +47.8% | 2.31 | -0.08% | — |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
+3,005
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
+0.32% of metro population
3,158 from top origin
Greenville absorbed +3,005 net IRS migrants — +0.32% of population, the strongest inflow rate of any T5 metro in the queue. The Upcountry corridor along I-85 is pulling households from the Northeast, the Midwest, and Atlanta exurbs. Migration is the engine here.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Greenville County, SC | 3,158 |
| Spartanburg County, SC | 2,307 |
| Anderson County, SC | 1,875 |
| Pickens County, SC | 1,602 |
| Oconee County, SC | 776 |
| Laurens County, SC | 605 |
Who lives in Greenville
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 38.8
- Owner-occupancy
- 70.6%
- Bachelor's+
- 33.7%
Greenville relatively young Midwest metro: Median age 38.8, 70.6% owner-occupancy 33.7% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 46.0% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $69,016
- Median age
- 38.8
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 33.7%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 70.6%
- Vacancy rate
- 9.2%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 46.0%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026