Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA
The plains powerhouse. Omaha hits the **affordable + comfortable + permit pipeline trifecta**: P/I **2.99 affordable**, R/I **19.8% comfortable** (lowest in T5), permits **6.76 per 1,000 — STRONG** (nearly double national). Cap proxy 4.30% workable. HPI +48% over 5 years, YoY +3.56% healthy. 8-county NE-IA metro with Douglas at the core. Migration essentially flat. Anchored by Berkshire Hathaway, Mutual of Omaha, Union Pacific HQ, ConAgra, the Strategic Command at Offutt AFB.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
affordable
Price to income
2.99×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Nebraska
- 2.99×=
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×-0.44
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
19.8%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Nebraska
- 19.8%=
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%-3.5
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
4.3%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Nebraska
- 4.3%=
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
shrinking
Net migration
-0.00%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Nebraska
- -0.08%+0.08
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
6.76
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Nebraska
- 6.76=
- vs U.S.
- 3.49+3.28
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
healthy
Unemployment
3.2%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Nebraska
- 3.2%=
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%-0.8
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Omaha
Omaha is the plains powerhouse. Across 8 counties — Douglas at the core plus Sarpy, Pottawattamie (IA), Cass, Saunders, Washington, Harrison (IA), and Mills (IA) — the metro packs 967,000 residents with a household income of $83,023 (Census ACS) and a median home value of $248,100. The HUD Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom is $1,368 — among the cheapest 2BR FMRs in the queue. The House Price Index ran +48.0% over five years (FHFA HPI) — solid plains territory, beating the U.S. metros average of +34.3% by 14 percentage points.
The interesting fact is that Omaha hits the affordable + comfortable + permit pipeline trifecta. The price-to-income ratio is 2.99 — just under the affordable threshold. The rent-to-income is 19.8% — comfortable (the lowest in any T5 metro in the queue). The cap rate proxy is 4.30% — workable. Permits are 6.76 per 1,000 — nearly double the national 3.49, the strongest plains build rate in the queue. Inside Nebraska, Omaha ranks #1 of 4 by population, #1 by permits, #3 by 5-year HPI — Lincoln and the Sioux City spillover both ran harder on price action, but Omaha is the structural anchor.
The 8-county geometry (a NE-IA bi-state metro across the Missouri River) concentrates pipeline in 3 counties:
- Douglas County (583K pop, $245,800 MHV) leads with 3,821 permits TTM = 6.56 per 1,000 — Omaha proper plus the western suburbs. 58% of the metro pipeline.
- Sarpy County (191K pop, $287,600 MHV) is the density leader at 1,710 permits = 8.94 per 1,000 — Bellevue, Papillion, La Vista, Gretna. The affluent southern suburb between Omaha and Offutt AFB (USSTRATCOM headquarters).
- Pottawattamie County, IA (94K pop, $183,600 MHV) issues 499 permits = 5.33 per 1,000 — Council Bluffs. The Iowa side of the metro across the Missouri River.
- Cass, Saunders, Washington, Harrison, Mills combined add ~500 permits — small rural fringe counties.
Omaha runs 6.76 permits per 1,000 residents — nearly double the national 3.49. The 53% single-family / 45% 5+ multifamily mix is balanced — driven by downtown Omaha apartment construction (the new Mutual of Omaha tower district, the Capitol District) plus the Sarpy SFR boom. Permit YoY +11.6% — modest acceleration sustained at a high level.
What's changing: net IRS migration is −12 returns (IRS SOI) — literally a statistical zero, −0.001% of population. Owner-occupancy 66.3%, bachelor's-or-higher 39.1% (high). The labor market is anchored by Berkshire Hathaway (Buffett's HQ), Mutual of Omaha, Union Pacific HQ, ConAgra, Werner Enterprises, Kiewit Corporation, the Nebraska Medical Center, Creighton University, the University of Nebraska Omaha, and U.S. Strategic Command at Offutt AFB. Insurance + finance + transportation + defense + healthcare — diversified and structurally sticky.
What does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow: Omaha works. 4.30% cap proxy on a $248K median is one of the more workable in the queue. The 19.8% rent-to-income gives demand headroom. Look at Douglas County working-class neighborhoods (Benson, Florence, Bemis Park) and Council Bluffs (cheaper IA side, $130K-$170K SFR).
- If you're playing appreciation: Omaha is solid. +48.0% over 5 years with +3.56% YoY is the steady plains pattern. Sarpy County (Bellevue, Papillion, Gretna) is the local growth pocket and where master-planned new construction concentrates.
- If you already own here: Hold and consider adding. The affordability + permit pipeline + diversified employer base means the structural floor is high. Berkshire Hathaway and USSTRATCOM aren't moving. Sarpy County's south-side growth corridor has runway.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+48.0%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+3.6% YoY
$248,100 median home value
Omaha home prices climbed 48.0% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a steady appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change of 3.6% suggests steady appreciation continuing.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Omaha ran **+48.0% over five years** — solid plains growth, beating the U.S. metros average (+34.3%) by 14 points and tracking close to the larger Sun Belt secondary metros.
- 02**Recent YoY is +3.56%** — moderate, healthy. Not the rocket of Buffalo (+5.70%) or Rochester (+5.74%) but well above any cooled metro.
- 03Inside Nebraska, Omaha ranks **#3 of 4** for 5-year HPI — Lincoln and the Sioux City spillover both ran harder. **#1 by population, #1 by permits**.
- 04U.S. metros ran **+34.3%** over the same window. Omaha outperformed by ~14 points — a low-cost market with above-average compounding.
- 05The takeaway: Omaha is **the affordable + accelerating combo** — 5-year +48%, recent +3.56%, supported by strong permits and a structurally tight labor market.
Where the value tier sits — top 5 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarpy County | $287,600 | $101,402 | 2.84× | affordable |
| Washington County | $278,300 | $90,188 | 3.09× | moderate |
| Cass County | $247,200 | $88,255 | 2.80× | affordable |
| Douglas County | $245,800 | $79,081 | 3.11× | moderate |
| Saunders County | $241,100 | $89,395 | 2.70× | affordable |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,368
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
19.8% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 19.8% of their income — 3.5 points below the U.S. average (23.3%) right at Nebraska (19.8%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,148 | $13.8K | 16.6% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,368 | $16.4K | 19.8% | comfortable |
| 3 BR | $1,813 | $21.8K | 26.2% | moderate |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
3.2%
BLS LAUS · latest month
Omaha's labor market is healthy, with unemployment running at 3.2% — 0.8 points below the U.S. metros average (4.0%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
3.2%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$83,023
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
6,536
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+11.6% year-over-year
6.76 permits per 1,000 residents
Omaha pulled 6,536 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 11.6% year-over-year. That works out to 6.76 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
3,487
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
127
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
2,922
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 8 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Douglas County leads with 3,821 TTM permits = 6.56 per 1,000** — Omaha proper plus the western suburbs. 58% of the metro pipeline.
- 02**Sarpy County** (Bellevue, Papillion, La Vista, Gretna) builds **1,710 permits = 8.94 per 1,000** — the **density leader** of the metro. Affluent southern suburb between Omaha and Offutt AFB.
- 03**Pottawattamie County, IA** (Council Bluffs) issues **499 permits = 5.33 per 1,000** — the Iowa side of the metro across the Missouri River.
- 04**Washington, Saunders, Cass, Harrison, Mills** combined add ~500 permits — small rural fringe counties.
- 05Omaha runs **6.76 permits per 1,000 residents** — nearly **DOUBLE the national 3.49**, the strongest plains build rate in the queue. **Permit YoY is +11.6%** — modest acceleration, sustained at high level.
How to read the map
- 01**Sarpy County (south of Omaha) is densest at 8.94 per 1,000** — Bellevue, Papillion, La Vista, Gretna. The affluent southern suburb between Omaha and Offutt AFB grows fastest by rate.
- 02**Saunders County** (NW of Omaha, Wahoo, Fremont area) at **8.13 per 1,000** — small but proportionally building.
- 03**Douglas County (the urban core) at 6.56 per 1,000** — Omaha proper. Solid, strong, large absolute volume (3,821 permits).
- 04**Pottawattamie County, IA at 5.33 per 1,000** — Council Bluffs. The Iowa side across the Missouri River, anchoring the metro's eastern flank.
- 05**The pattern is concentrated in Sarpy + Douglas + Pottawattamie** (the three big counties) with strong rates everywhere except a couple of the small rural fringe counties (Cass, Harrison).
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Douglas County | 582,638 | $79,081 | $245,800 | 3,821 | |
| 2 | Sarpy County | 191,272 | $101,402 | $287,600 | 1,710 | +24.2% |
| 3 | Pottawattamie County | 93,543 | $71,446 | $183,600 | 499 | |
| 4 | Cass County | 26,749 | $88,255 | $247,200 | 67 | |
| 5 | Saunders County | 22,374 | $89,395 | $241,100 | 182 | +59.6% |
| 6 | Washington County | 20,884 | $90,188 | $278,300 | 212 | +194.4% |
| 7 | Harrison County | 14,623 | $77,027 | $165,300 | 15 | |
| 8 | Mills County | 14,605 | $87,810 | $228,700 | 30 |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Omaha by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Best in 3 of 5 comparable metrics
Omaha is closest in size to Albany, Allentown, New Haven, Worcester. best in class on Unemployment, Price to income, Permit pipeline, and behind on Cap rate proxy.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Omaha is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Omaha | 0.97M | $83K | $248K | 2.99× | 4.3% | +48.0% | 6.76 | -0.00% | 3.2% |
Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY | 0.90M | $86K | $268K | 3.12× | 4.9% | +53.1% | 2.37 | +0.11% | — |
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ | 0.86M | $83K | $278K | 3.36× | 5.3% | +62.3% | 2.87 | +0.22% | — |
New Haven-Milford, CT | 0.87M | $86K | $328K | 3.81× | — | +61.1% | — | — | — |
Worcester, MA-CT | 0.98M | $94K | $391K | 4.18× | 4.3% | +54.2% | 1.64 | -0.08% | — |
Grand Rapids-Kentwood, MI | 1.09M | $80K | $262K | 3.26× | 4.6% | +59.5% | 4.12 | -0.02% | 4.0% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
-12
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
-0.00% of metro population
5,460 from top origin
Omaha was essentially flat on net IRS migration — losing −12 returns, −0.001% of population (literally a statistical zero). Migration isn't the story here. The story is that the metro builds more than its peers and still keeps household formation steady.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Douglas County, NE | 5,460 |
| Sarpy County, NE | 3,904 |
| Lancaster County, NE | 1,682 |
| Pottawattamie County, IA | 1,096 |
| Dodge County, NE | 432 |
| Cass County, NE | 358 |
Who lives in Omaha
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 36.5
- Owner-occupancy
- 66.3%
- Bachelor's+
- 39.1%
Omaha relatively young Midwest metro: Median age 36.5, 66.3% owner-occupancy 39.1% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 44.1% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $83,023
- Median age
- 36.5
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 39.1%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 66.3%
- Vacancy rate
- 5.6%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 44.1%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026