Research·2 min read·Sophia Warren·Apr 30, 2026

Just 8% of AvalonBay Tenants Left to Buy a Home — A Historic Low

AvalonBay says only 8% of Q1 movers left to buy a home — a historic low. The single-family rate-lock effect has reached institutional multifamily.

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8%. That is the share of AvalonBay residents who moved out to purchase a home in the first quarter of 2026 — a historic low for the company, 50 basis points below the same quarter last year. CEO Ben Schall flagged the figure on Tuesday's Q1 2026 earnings call as the clearest sign yet that the rate-lock dynamic suppressing existing-home sales has crossed into institutional multifamily.

The mechanic is straightforward. 30-year mortgage rates have hovered near 6.7% for most of 2026, and AvalonBay says it now costs roughly $2,100 less per month to rent than to buy in its established markets, according to the company. Tenant turnover ran below 35% in every month of Q1, and occupancy held at 96.1% portfolio-wide.

The numbers underneath the headline are what investors are debating. Same-store residential revenue rose 1.6% year-over-year to $703.9 million, and FFO per share came in at $2.83, beating estimates of $2.80. CFO Kevin O'Shea told the call that buybacks penciled because "our stock implies a cap rate in the low 6% range," while new development still cleared yields "in the mid 6% range or higher." That spread — roughly the same number on both sides of the buy-versus-build choice — is why AvalonBay deployed $198 million into buybacks alongside $188 million of new starts.

Equity Residential, reporting Wednesday, told a similar story from the urban-coastal angle: New York and San Francisco contributed roughly 30% of NOI, occupancy ticked to 96.5%, and FFO per share of 99 cents beat the 95-cent consensus. CEO Mark Parrell said new apartment supply is "set to decline for the foreseeable future across all our markets," which the company expects will let concessions fade and pricing power return in the back half of 2026.

The supply side corroborates. March multifamily permits ran at a 427,000 SAAR, down 23.5% month-over-month and 5.3% year-over-year per HUD and Census data. In Houston, Marcus & Millichap projects multifamily rents will rise 2.3% in 2026 to $1,410/month against new supply at a 13-year low, per CRE Daily. The pipeline that fueled 2024's concession war is finishing; what's behind it is much smaller. Schall said as much: lower supply and reduced concessions are "expected to be the main performance drivers for the second half of the year."


Further reading

  • Cap Rate — the metric O'Shea referenced when he called AvalonBay's stock "low 6%" and developments "mid 6%."
  • Houston metro hub — the cleanest local read on what tightening multifamily supply does to rents.
  • Multifamily Property — the asset-class definition for readers comparing institutional REIT economics to a small-balance 4–20 unit deal.
Glossary Terms22 terms
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T
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR)

SAAR is the Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate — a single month's economic activity converted to an annual equivalent by first stripping seasonal patterns, then multiplying by 12.

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E
Current Employment Statistics (CES)

CES is the BLS monthly survey of business payrolls that produces nonfarm employment counts at the national, state, and metro level — the establishment-based counterpart to LAUS unemployment data.

Read definition →
#
Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

BEA is the U.S. Department of Commerce agency that publishes GDP, personal income, and regional economic data — the numbers you use to tell whether a metro's economy is growing, which sectors drive it, and whether local income can support current rents.

Read definition →
D
Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD)

HUD is the cabinet-level department that administers federal housing policy in the U.S. — it insures FHA mortgages, runs the Section 8 voucher program, publishes the Fair Market Rent benchmark, and enforces the Fair Housing Act.

Read definition →
P
Portfolio (Real Estate)

A portfolio is the complete collection of investment properties an investor owns and manages as a unified whole — evaluated not by any single property's performance but by how every holding works together to generate cash flow, build equity, and manage risk across markets, property types, and asset classes.

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T
Tenant

A tenant is a person or entity that occupies a property owned by a landlord under the terms of a lease agreement — paying rent in exchange for the legal right to use and inhabit the space for a specified period.

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About the Author

Sophia Warren

Residential Investment Analyst & News Editor

My realm is residential real estate investment, with a knack for spotting gems in emerging markets. I also edit the REI Prime daily news desk, where I translate federal data releases and operator signals into actionable briefs for small investors. Beyond properties, my world blooms in urban gardens and thrives in crafting stylish interiors.