Fed Holds at 3.5–3.75% in Powell's Final Meeting; Mortgage at 6.39%
FOMC voted 8-1 to hold the federal funds target at 3.5-3.75% in Powell's last meeting. The 30-year mortgage rate edged down 3bps to 6.39%.
The Data
3.5%–3.75%. That's where the federal funds rate target range stayed Wednesday — the third consecutive hold — after an 8-1 FOMC vote, per the statement. Governor Stephen I. Miran was the lone dissent, preferring a 25bp cut.
The 30-year conforming mortgage rate printed at 6.39% Wednesday morning, down 3bps week-over-week, with FHA at 6.13% and jumbos at 6.26%. The 10-year Treasury hovered near 4.30% (FRED DGS10).
The hold marks Powell's final FOMC as Chair, closing a tenure that spanned the pandemic and the fastest tightening cycle in four decades. Kevin Warsh advanced to a Senate confirmation vote Wednesday after DOJ closed its probe into the Fed's $2B headquarters renovation.
The Context
The hold tracks the inflation re-acceleration REI Prime flagged last Friday. March CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year (FRED CPIAUCSL), up from 2.4% in February — the 0.9% monthly print was the largest in nearly four years. Nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs and the unemployment rate held at 4.3% (BLS).
George Ratiu, research VP at the National Apartment Association, said policymakers will "stay cautious even under new leadership, because the next inflation flare-up is a risk they can't ignore." Charles Goodwin of Kiavi was blunter: "Expect mortgage rates to stay in the current ~6.3% range for the foreseeable future."
CME FedWatch now prices zero cuts in 2026 — a sharp reversal from January's one-cut consensus.
Also Moving
- Housing supply outruns population growth nearly 2:1. US housing stock added 1.41M units over the trailing twelve months while population grew just 757,000, pushing vacant on-market inventory to the highest since mid-2017. (Wolf Street)
- Multifamily rent growth fell to 1.0% YoY in March — lowest since 2021, and the first negative month-over-month print in 32 months. (CRE Daily / Chandan Economics)
- 77 of the top 150 metros lost jobs YoY in February, up from 60 the prior month. DC shed 119,000 positions, NYC 57,500. (CRE Daily / RealPage)
- Brent crude at $105 pushed March construction materials costs up 2.2%, squeezing NYC project pro formas. (CRE Daily)
What to Watch
Three signals:
- May 13 — April CPI release. A second consecutive 3%+ YoY print locks in the no-cut base case. A return below 3% reopens the late-2026 cut conversation.
- June 16-17 — Next FOMC meeting. Warsh's first as Chair if confirmed. The dot plot will reveal whether the long-run neutral rate estimate has shifted.
- The 10-year Treasury near 4.30%. A move above 4.50% lifts the 30-year mortgage toward 6.6%; a break below 4.10% is the level analysts cite to pull rates into the high 5s.
Data sources: FRED (FEDFUNDS, MORTGAGE30US, DGS10, CPIAUCSL, UNRATE), BLS, HousingWire, Wolf Street, CRE Daily.
BPS is the Census Bureau's monthly survey of residential building permits issued by local permit-issuing jurisdictions — the source of every county and metro permit count used in real estate supply analysis.
Read definition →CES is the BLS monthly survey of business payrolls that produces nonfarm employment counts at the national, state, and metro level — the establishment-based counterpart to LAUS unemployment data.
Read definition →Rent is the periodic payment a tenant makes to a landlord in exchange for the right to occupy a property -- the single revenue line that funds your mortgage, expenses, and profit as a rental property investor.
Read definition →Renovation is any improvement made to an existing property — from repainting walls and replacing flooring to gutting kitchens and reinforcing foundations — that restores, upgrades, or modernizes the structure to increase its value, functionality, or rental income potential.
Read definition →A multifamily property is any residential building containing two or more separate dwelling units under one roof — from a side-by-side duplex to a 300-unit apartment complex — where each unit has its own kitchen, bathroom, and entrance, and each unit generates independent rental income.
Read definition →A lease is a legally binding contract between a landlord and a tenant that grants the tenant exclusive use of a property for a specified period in exchange for rent — establishing every right, obligation, and financial term that governs the rental relationship.
Read definition →Sophia Warren
Residential Investment Analyst & News Editor
My realm is residential real estate investment, with a knack for spotting gems in emerging markets. I also edit the REI Prime daily news desk, where I translate federal data releases and operator signals into actionable briefs for small investors. Beyond properties, my world blooms in urban gardens and thrives in crafting stylish interiors.
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