Housing Starts Rebound 10.8% — But Permits Fell the Same Amount

The Data

1.5 million.

That's the seasonally adjusted annual rate of total housing starts in March 2026, up 10.8% from February, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and HUD New Residential Construction release. NAHB called the print a "solid rebound" — the first monthly gain in three months.

The decomposition matters more than the headline. Single-family starts climbed to 1.03 million SAAR, up 9.7% MoM and 8.9% above March 2025. Multifamily ran hotter on the percentage move — 470,000 SAAR, up 13.3% MoM and 15.5% YoY.

Building permits told the opposite story. Total permits dropped to 1.37 million SAAR, down 10.8% MoM — the same delta in reverse. Single-family permits fell 3.8% to 895,000; multifamily collapsed 21.5% to 477,000, now 6.3% below March 2025.

The Context

A starts gain paired with a permits drop is a builder pipeline firing this month and pulling back on the next. Permits lead starts by six to nine months on single-family and longer on multifamily — March is two decisions captured in one print, not a trend.

Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington, NAHB's assistant VP for forecasting, said builders are "cautiously ramping up production to meet persistent inventory shortages" but expects "the pace of construction is likely to remain measured." Bill McBride at Calculated Risk has tracked the multifamily completions cycle for two years; the 477,000 SAAR permit figure is consistent with his thesis that the apartment construction cliff is now visible in forward-supply data.

The under-construction backlog — 587,000 single-family homes and 677,000 apartments — means starts and completions over the next six months reflect decisions made when rates were closer to 7%.

Also Moving

• MBA mortgage applications fell 1.6% for the week ending April 24, with the 30-year conforming rate at 6.37% (HousingWire). Purchase apps remain 21% above the March 2025 base.
• Apartment rent growth slowed to 1.0% YoY in March per Chandan Economics — the lowest reading since 2021. Month-over-month rent turned negative (-0.1%) for the first time since June 2023 (CRE Daily).
• AvalonBay's Q1 earnings showed only 8% of residents leaving to buy a home — a historical low. AVB markets are about $2,100/month cheaper to rent than buy (Multifamily Dive).

What to Watch

Three observable signals over the next 30 days:

1. May 19 — Census/HUD April release. Whether single-family starts hold above 1.0M SAAR matters; March was the first month above that line since November 2025.
2. Multifamily permit trajectory. April permits below 477,000 would confirm the apartment supply pipeline is contracting faster than completions are clearing the backlog.
3. Regional divergence. Year-to-date starts are 36% higher in the Northeast and 15.5% lower in the West. April's regional split will signal whether that gap widens or compresses.

Data sources: Census/HUD, NAHB, Calculated Risk, FRED (HOUST, PERMIT, HOUST1F, PERMIT1).