Nevada Beats Texas and Florida for Per-Capita California Movers
California Policy Lab finds Nevada attracts 81 California movers per 10,000 residents — the highest per-capita rate. Movers save $672/month on housing.
The Data
81 per 10,000. That's how many net Californians moved to Nevada each year between 2016 and 2025, according to a California Policy Lab study at UC Berkeley reported by the New York Post on April 29.
It's the highest per-capita inflow of any state — ahead of Texas and Florida, which dominate the absolute-headcount rankings. California-to-Nevada movers cut housing costs by an average of $672 per month, land in neighborhoods where home prices run 48% lower, and become 48% more likely to own a home within a few years of arrival.
The shift is moving up-income, too. Higher earners now make up 40% of California's outflow, up from 34% before the pandemic.
The Context
Texas and Florida absorb larger absolute counts; Nevada wins on a per-capita basis. "The price tag has gone up on the California Dream," Cal Policy Lab executive director and study co-author Evan White said, "and many families are leaving for more affordable places."
The Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise metro is where most of the inflow lands. REI Prime's metro hub shows Las Vegas net IRS migration of +10,132, a Clark County median home price of $400,800, and HUD Fair Market Rent of $1,735 for a 2BR — versus a California statewide median near $855,000 in the study. The affordability gap is the entire thesis.
The catch: Nevada's edge has narrowed. Las Vegas median single-family hit $482,000 in February 2026, near an all-time peak; Reno sits at $547,000. The migration pattern is real; the deal is not the deal it was in 2018.
Also Moving
- Houston multifamily supply hits a 13-year low. Marcus & Millichap projects 2026 rents at $1,410/month on 2.3% growth, with a 6.3% vacancy rate (CRE Daily). Sub-$10M transaction volume jumped 60% YoY.
- NAHB shows 16 straight quarters of construction-loan tightening. Lower loan-to-cost ratios, higher equity requirements (HousingWire) — a structural drag on supply that does not unwind on a rate cut.
- UWM rolls out VantageScore for conventional loans. United Wholesale Mortgage has delivered roughly $10 million to Freddie Mac under FHFA's operational pilot (HousingWire) — the first major lender adoption ahead of the GSE rollout.
What to Watch
Three signals over the next 30 days:
- May 6-7 — FOMC meeting. Consensus is a hold at 3.50–3.75%; April's 8-4 dissent split (highest since October 1992) widens the range around the May statement.
- Late May — NAR April existing home sales. Whether months-of-supply holds at or above 4.0 is the seller's-versus-balanced-market line.
- Q2 — California Association of Realtors median home price. A print near the projected $905,000 year-end median would confirm the gap driving Nevada migration widened.
Data sources: California Policy Lab (UC Berkeley), NY Post Real Estate, HUD Small Area Fair Market Rent, IRS Statistics of Income migration data.
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) is the largest U.S. trade association for single-family and multifamily home builders — a 140,000-member organization that publishes the monthly Housing Market Index, Housing Starts commentary, and New Home Sales analysis.
Read definition →CES is the BLS monthly survey of business payrolls that produces nonfarm employment counts at the national, state, and metro level — the establishment-based counterpart to LAUS unemployment data.
Read definition →A GSE is a private corporation chartered by Congress to serve a public mission — and in U.S. housing, that means Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the 11 Federal Home Loan Banks, the system that buys conforming mortgages off originator books and keeps the 30-year fixed rate economically possible.
Read definition →NAR is the largest U.S. real estate trade association — 1.5 million REALTOR® members — that governs the MLS system, publishes the monthly Existing Home Sales report, owns Realtor.com, and whose 2024 settlement reshaped how buyer agents get paid.
Read definition →HUD is the cabinet-level department that administers federal housing policy in the U.S. — it insures FHA mortgages, runs the Section 8 voucher program, publishes the Fair Market Rent benchmark, and enforces the Fair Housing Act.
Read definition →FHFA is the U.S. regulator that oversees Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the 11 Federal Home Loan Banks — and it publishes the House Price Index that every serious market analysis relies on.
Read definition →Sophia Warren
Residential Investment Analyst & News Editor
My realm is residential real estate investment, with a knack for spotting gems in emerging markets. I also edit the REI Prime daily news desk, where I translate federal data releases and operator signals into actionable briefs for small investors. Beyond properties, my world blooms in urban gardens and thrives in crafting stylish interiors.
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