Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV
The single-county Sun Belt sprint. Las Vegas is one metro = one county (Clark) with 2.27M residents, HPI +52.3% over 5 years (third in queue after Phoenix and Charlotte), and 5.87 permits per 1,000 (strong, +21.3% YoY). The catch: unemployment 5.2% (highest in queue), bachelor 27.3% (lowest), owner-occupancy 57% (lowest). Classic Vegas — cyclical, exposed, hot when it runs.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
expensive
Price to income
5.43×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Nevada
- 5.60×-0.17
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
moderate
Rent to income
28.2%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Nevada
- 26.5%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
tight
Cap rate proxy
3.4%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Nevada
- 3.1%+0.3
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
steady
Net migration
+0.45%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Nevada
- 0.45%=
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%+0.41
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
5.87
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Nevada
- 5.87=
- vs U.S.
- 3.49+2.38
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
5.2%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Nevada
- 5.2%=
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Las Vegas
Las Vegas is the single-county Sun Belt sprint. The metro is one county — Clark — covering all 2.27 million residents, with a household income of $73,845 (Census ACS) and a median home value of $400,800. The HUD Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom is $1,735. The House Price Index ran +52.3% over five years (FHFA HPI) — third in the queue after Charlotte (+63.8%) and Orlando (+58.1%), and neck-and-neck with Phoenix (+53.8%) and Miami (+55.3%).
The interesting fact is that Las Vegas is one of only two single-county metros in the queue (the other is Columbus, OH at the parent level). Federal data, peer comparisons, and choropleth maps all show "Las Vegas" as one shape because it IS one county. The submarket story (Henderson, Summerlin, North Las Vegas, the Strip, Spring Valley) is internal to Clark and not visible at this resolution. Inside Nevada, Las Vegas ranks #1 of 3 by population, permits, and 5-year HPI — Reno and Carson City are tiny by comparison.
Clark County builds 13,293 permits TTM = 5.87 per 1,000 residents — well above the national 3.49 and exactly equal to the Nevada state median (Clark IS the state). The mix is 67% single-family / 33% multifamily. Permit YoY is +21.3% — accelerating fast, the third-fastest acceleration in the queue after Orlando and Sacramento. Builders are betting hard on the next leg.
What's changing: net IRS migration is +10,132 returns (IRS SOI) — strong, +0.45% of population. The biggest origin is California, especially Los Angeles County — Vegas catches the Southern California overflow the way Sacramento used to catch the Bay Area overflow. The cap rate proxy is 3.38% — tight, well below the 4.4% national figure. Unemployment is 5.2% — the highest in the queue, reflecting the metro's tourism and gaming exposure. Owner-occupancy is 57.0% — the lowest in the queue, because Vegas is heavily a rental market. Bachelor's-or-higher is 27.3%, the lowest in the queue, because the workforce skews service-economy.
What does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow: Las Vegas is hard. 3.38% cap proxy on a $400K median is one of the worst yields in the queue. But the workforce belt (North Las Vegas, parts of east Henderson) has lower entry — sub-$300K SFR with workable rent ratios for the right deal. Stay away from Summerlin and Henderson Hills.
- If you're playing appreciation: Vegas still has a credible appreciation thesis — the HPI is up 52.3% over 5 years, the migration is positive, the permit pipeline is accelerating. The risk is the labor market: 5.2% unemployment exposes Vegas to recession in a way Phoenix and Charlotte aren't.
- If you already own here: Hold. The fundamentals are intact even though the labor market is wobblier than the data-driven peer set. Vegas is the highest-beta Sun Belt metro — sharper highs and lows than the rest of the queue.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+52.3%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+1.4% YoY
$400,800 median home value
Las Vegas home prices climbed 52.3% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a steady appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change has cooled to 1.4%, signaling the post-2022 surge has unwound into steady-state appreciation.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Las Vegas ran **+52.3% over five years** — third in the queue after Charlotte (+63.8%) and Orlando (+58.1%), neck and neck with Phoenix (+53.8%) and Miami (+55.3%). The Sun Belt sprint is real here.
- 02Inside Nevada, Las Vegas ranks **#1 of 3** for 5-year HPI. Reno is the closest comparison; Carson City is a distant third. Las Vegas dominates the state economically.
- 03**Recent YoY is +1.44%** — slowing but still positive. Vegas hasn't flipped negative like Tampa or Phoenix yet, but the curve is bending.
- 04U.S. metros ran **+34.3%** over the same window. Las Vegas outperformed by ~18pp — solidly in the Sun Belt overshoot camp.
- 05The takeaway: Las Vegas is a **late-cycle Sun Belt sprint**. Up double-digits over the national average, with the typical post-COVID overshoot. The cap math has tightened to 3.38%, which is the price of admission for that appreciation.
Where the value tier sits — top 1 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clark County | $400,800 | $73,845 | 5.43× | stretched |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,735
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
28.2% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 28.2% of their income — 4.9 points above the U.S. average (23.3%) 1.7 points above Nevada (26.5%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,478 | $17.7K | 24.0% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,735 | $20.8K | 28.2% | moderate |
| 3 BR | $2,413 | $29.0K | 39.2% | rent-burdened |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
5.2%
BLS LAUS · latest month
Las Vegas's labor market is softening, with unemployment running at 5.2% — 1.2 points above the U.S. metros average (4.0%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
5.2%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$73,845
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
13,293
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+21.3% year-over-year
5.87 permits per 1,000 residents
Las Vegas pulled 13,293 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 21.3% year-over-year. That works out to 5.87 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
8,946
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
409
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
3,938
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 1 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Clark County is the entire metro.** All 2.27M residents and all 13,293 permits TTM are in one county. There is no exurb-versus-core breakdown to do here.
- 02**13,293 permits over the last 12 months = 5.87 per 1,000 residents** — well above the national 3.49. The Nevada state median is identical (5.87) because Clark IS most of Nevada.
- 03**Permit YoY is +21.3%** — accelerating, the third-fastest acceleration in the queue after Orlando and Sacramento.
- 04The 67% single-family / 33% multifamily mix is typical Sun Belt. The Strip-adjacent submarkets (Henderson, Summerlin, Spring Valley) are where the SFR pipeline lives.
- 05The submarket story is internal to Clark — Henderson and Summerlin are the affluent SE/W exurbs, North Las Vegas is the affordable workforce belt, the Strip plus Paradise are the urban core. The single-county geometry hides what would be a county breakdown elsewhere.
How to read the map
- 01**One shape, one number: Clark County at 5.87 per 1,000.** The choropleth is a single colored polygon — the entire metro is one county.
- 02For comparison, the national metro median is 3.49. Las Vegas runs **68% above the national pace** despite the cycle slowing.
- 03The Nevada state-median equals Clark exactly because Clark is the dominant population center — Reno and Carson City barely move the state aggregate.
- 04The relevant submarket map is INSIDE Clark, not across counties. Henderson, Summerlin, North Las Vegas, and the Strip core all have very different price and rent profiles, but federal data treats Clark as one shape.
- 05**The implication for an investor:** every public dataset will show Las Vegas as a single number. To pick a submarket you have to drop down to ZIP code or city level. The metro hub view is the floor, not the ceiling.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clark County | 2,265,926 | $73,845 | $400,800 | 13,293 | +21.3% |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Las Vegas by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Best in 1 of 5 comparable metrics
Las Vegas is closest in size to Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Columbus. best in class on Net migration, and behind on Cap rate proxy, Unemployment, Price to income.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Las Vegas is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Las Vegas | 2.27M | $74K | $401K | 5.43× | 3.4% | +52.3% | 5.87 | +0.45% | 5.2% |
Pittsburgh, PA | 2.37M | $74K | $205K | 2.77× | 5.0% | +42.4% | 2.17 | -0.13% | 3.6% |
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN | 2.25M | $79K | $240K | 3.02× | 4.4% | +57.1% | 3.52 | -0.06% | 3.6% |
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN | 2.11M | $77K | $244K | 3.17× | 4.7% | +53.0% | 5.91 | +0.02% | 2.5% |
Columbus, OH | 2.14M | $80K | $274K | 3.44× | 4.1% | +54.6% | 7.54 | -0.08% | 3.6% |
Kansas City, MO-KS | 2.19M | $82K | $265K | 3.24× | 4.0% | +51.8% | 4.11 | +0.00% | 3.5% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
+10,132
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
+0.45% of metro population
7,187 from top origin
Las Vegas absorbed +10,132 net IRS returns — +0.45% of population. The biggest origin is California, especially Los Angeles County. Vegas is the affordable Western alternative for households priced out of Southern California.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles County, CA | 7,187 |
| Orange County, CA | 2,098 |
| San Diego County, CA | 1,968 |
| San Bernardino County, CA | 1,786 |
| Riverside County, CA | 1,621 |
| Maricopa County, AZ | 1,368 |
Who lives in Las Vegas
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 38.3
- Owner-occupancy
- 57.0%
- Bachelor's+
- 27.3%
Las Vegas relatively young Midwest metro: Median age 38.3, 57.0% owner-occupancy 27.3% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 52.9% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $73,845
- Median age
- 38.3
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 27.3%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 57.0%
- Vacancy rate
- 9.5%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 52.9%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026