38 Metros Now Favor Buyers: Sellers Outnumber by 43%
Sellers outnumber buyers in 38 of 49 major U.S. metros in March 2026, up from 29 a year earlier. Inventory has grown YoY for 28 consecutive months.
The Data
38 of 49. That is the number of major U.S. metro areas where home sellers now outnumber buyers, per a monthly metro-level housing-market-structure analysis released April 20. The count was 29 one year ago. Nationally, sellers outnumber buyers by 43% — just shy of the December 2025 record of 45.2%.
Miami leads the buyer-favored metros with 147.9% more sellers than buyers. Nashville follows at 119%, Austin at 112.1%.
Inventory context supports the shift. FRED's national active-listing series (ACTLISCOUUS) has posted year-over-year gains for 28 consecutive months, and active listings ended March up 8.1% YoY, per NAR's April 13 existing-home-sales report.
The Context
The buyer-advantage count jumped from 29 to 38 metros in 12 months — a 31% expansion. Miami, Nashville, and Austin top the buyer-favored list with seller-to-buyer ratios above 100%.
Weekly economic commentary published April 20 flagged twin pressures on the spring market: core PCE inflation estimated at 3.2% in March, the highest reading since early 2024, and a cooling jobs market. Both complicate the path to a mid-year rate cut.
REI Prime's buyer's market glossary entry covers the indicators analysts use to classify a metro. Market-level context is available for the three metros with the deepest buyer tilt: Miami-Fort Lauderdale, Nashville, and Austin.
Also Moving
- Core PCE inflation estimated at 3.2% for March — the highest reading since early 2024, per weekly economic commentary. The March PCE print lands April 30.
- Fed succession uncertainty — Kevin Warsh's confirmation odds sit at 36% on prediction markets with Powell's term ending May 15. Senator Thom Tillis has pledged to block the nomination pending the DOJ's Powell investigation (source).
- March existing-home sales at 3.98M SAAR, down 3.6% MoM, per NAR's April 13 release. Months of supply held at 4.0.
What to Watch
Three observable signals in the next 30 days:
- April 30 — BEA releases March PCE. A print confirming the estimated 3.2% would extend the highest-inflation-in-two-years run; a softer print would re-open the June-cut case.
- May 6-7 — FOMC meets. Consensus points to a hold at 4.25-4.50%; any cut would be the first since December 2024.
- May 22 — NAR releases April existing-home sales. A 29th consecutive month of YoY inventory growth would match the current streak.
Data sources: FRED ACTLISCOUUS, NAR, monthly metro-level market-structure analysis (Mar 2026), weekly economic commentary (Apr 20).
SAAR is the Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate — a single month's economic activity converted to an annual equivalent by first stripping seasonal patterns, then multiplying by 12.
Read definition →CES is the BLS monthly survey of business payrolls that produces nonfarm employment counts at the national, state, and metro level — the establishment-based counterpart to LAUS unemployment data.
Read definition →NAR is the largest U.S. real estate trade association — 1.5 million REALTOR® members — that governs the MLS system, publishes the monthly Existing Home Sales report, owns Realtor.com, and whose 2024 settlement reshaped how buyer agents get paid.
Read definition →BEA is the U.S. Department of Commerce agency that publishes GDP, personal income, and regional economic data — the numbers you use to tell whether a metro's economy is growing, which sectors drive it, and whether local income can support current rents.
Read definition →Rent is the periodic payment a tenant makes to a landlord in exchange for the right to occupy a property -- the single revenue line that funds your mortgage, expenses, and profit as a rental property investor.
Read definition →A lease is a legally binding contract between a landlord and a tenant that grants the tenant exclusive use of a property for a specified period in exchange for rent — establishing every right, obligation, and financial term that governs the rental relationship.
Read definition →Martin Maxwell
Founder & Head of Research, REI PRIME
Specializing in rental properties, I excel in uncovering investments that promise high returns. Sailing the seas is my escape, steering through challenges just like in the world of real estate.
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