Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
The boom town that hit the wall. Austin still runs the highest permits per capita in the queue (11.74/1k, 26,955 TTM) and absorbed +13,592 net IRS migrants. But the HPI 5-year is just +34% (right at the national average), YoY is +0.38% (frozen), and the cap rate proxy is 3.32% (tight). The 12,145 multifamily permits in the pipeline mean even more supply is coming. Migration is still positive — but price has stopped responding.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
4.45×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Texas
- 2.95×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
22.8%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Texas
- 23.2%-0.4
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%-0.5
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
tight
Cap rate proxy
3.3%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Texas
- 5.1%
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
steady
Net migration
+0.59%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Texas
- 0.01%+0.58
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%+0.56
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline growing
Permit pipeline
11.74
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Texas
- 5.04+6.70
- vs U.S.
- 3.49+8.25
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
healthy
Unemployment
3.2%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Texas
- 3.6%-0.4
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%-0.8
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Austin
Austin is the boom town that hit the wall. Across 5 counties — Travis at the core plus Williamson, Hays, Bastrop, Caldwell — the metro packs 2.3 million residents with a household income of $97,638 (Census ACS) and a median home value of $434,800. The HUD Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom is $1,852. The House Price Index ran +34.0% over five years (FHFA HPI) — right at the national average of +34.3%. Austin actually undershot Charlotte (+63.8%), Orlando (+58.1%), Miami (+55.3%), and Phoenix (+53.8%). The early COVID spike has been mostly given back.
The interesting fact is that Austin still runs the highest permits per capita in the queue. 11.74 building permits per 1,000 residents — ahead of Orlando (9.39) and Charlotte (7.59). 26,955 permits TTM. The mix is 55% single-family / 45% multifamily — Austin built 12,145 multifamily units in the last 12 months. Lowest SF mix in the queue, highest multifamily volume, exactly the supply that's flatlining HPI. Inside Texas, Austin ranks #20 of 24 for 5-year HPI. YoY HPI is +0.38% — basically frozen.
The 5-county footprint has the densest exurb expansion in the queue:
- Travis County (1.29M pop, $487,600 MHV) leads with 14,509 permits TTM = 11.3 per 1,000 — Austin proper. The downtown/east-side multifamily boom is concentrated here.
- Williamson County (617K pop, $414,600 MHV) builds 5,034 permits = 8.15 per 1,000 — Round Rock, Cedar Park, Georgetown. The family suburb growth corridor.
- Hays County (245K pop, $371,400 MHV) builds 4,663 permits = 19.0 per 1,000 — San Marcos, Kyle, Buda. The southern growth ring on I-35.
- Bastrop County (98K pop, $269,500 MHV) is the densest at 22.4 per 1,000 — Bastrop, Smithville. Far-east exurb expansion.
Austin is in late-cycle Sun Belt mode — every county is building hot, but demand has slowed enough that prices don't move. The cap rate proxy is 3.32% — tight, well below the 4.4% national. Unemployment is 3.2%, very tight (below national 4.0% and the Texas state median 3.65%).
What's changing: net IRS migration is +13,592 returns (IRS SOI) — +0.59% of population, the fifth-highest rate in the queue. But HPI flatness says the migration is no longer lifting prices the way it did. Owner-occupancy 58.9% (low — lots of renters), bachelor's-or-higher 49.9% (highest of any Texas metro).
What does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow: Austin doesn't pencil. 3.32% cap proxy on a $434K median is one of the worst yields in the queue. Drop to Bastrop or Caldwell County for sub-$300K SFR with smaller-town economics. Skip Travis County entirely on a yield basis.
- If you're playing appreciation: Austin is the wrong call right now. The 5-year run is over and the supply pipeline is still pumping. Wait for the multifamily oversupply to absorb (12-18 months) before the next leg.
- If you already own here: Hold. Migration is still positive, the labor market is the strongest of the big Texas four, and the cycle is just digesting. Austin is not over — but it's no longer rocket-mode either.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+34.0%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+0.4% YoY
$434,800 median home value
Austin home prices climbed 34.0% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a modest appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change has cooled to 0.4%, signaling the post-2022 surge has unwound into steady-state appreciation.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Austin ran **+34% over five years** — right at the national average. For a metro that built its reputation as the Sun Belt rocket, Austin actually UNDERSHOT Charlotte (+63.8%), Orlando (+58.1%), Miami (+55.3%), and Phoenix (+53.8%). The line spiked early then flattened.
- 02Inside Texas, Austin ranks **#20 of 24** for 5-year HPI — bottom of the pack. The smaller TX metros (Sherman, Tyler, Beaumont) all ran harder than Austin in the post-COVID window.
- 03**Recent YoY is +0.38%** — basically frozen. Three of Austin's peer metros (Tampa, Phoenix, Orlando) have already flipped negative; Austin is teetering on the edge.
- 04U.S. metros ran **+34.3%** over the same window. Austin matched the national pace exactly — extraordinarily anti-climactic for a metro this hyped.
- 05The takeaway: Austin **overshot the most then corrected hardest**. The rocket line has flattened. The 5-year number is no longer the appreciation story it once was.
Where the value tier sits — top 5 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis County | $487,600 | $97,169 | 5.02× | stretched |
| Williamson County | $414,600 | $108,309 | 3.83× | moderate |
| Hays County | $371,400 | $85,827 | 4.33× | moderate |
| Bastrop County | $269,500 | $82,730 | 3.26× | moderate |
| Caldwell County | $215,600 | $68,503 | 3.15× | moderate |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,852
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
22.8% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 22.8% of their income — 0.5 points below the U.S. average (23.3%) 0.4 points below Texas (23.2%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,562 | $18.7K | 19.2% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,852 | $22.2K | 22.8% | comfortable |
| 3 BR | $2,347 | $28.2K | 28.8% | moderate |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
3.2%
BLS LAUS · latest month
Austin's labor market is healthy, with unemployment running at 3.2% — 0.8 points below the U.S. metros average (4.0%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
3.2%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$97,638
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
26,955
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+0.1% year-over-year
11.74 permits per 1,000 residents
Austin pulled 26,955 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a modest expansion 0.1% year-over-year. That works out to 11.74 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
14,810
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
787
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
11,358
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 5 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Travis County (Austin proper) leads with 14,509 permits TTM** — 54% of the metro pipeline. The downtown/east side multifamily boom is concentrated here.
- 02**Williamson County** (Round Rock, Cedar Park, Georgetown) builds **5,034 permits = 8.15 per 1,000** — the family suburb growth corridor.
- 03**Hays County** (San Marcos, Kyle, Buda) builds **4,663 permits = 19.0 per 1,000** — the metro's densest builder by far. Southern growth ring.
- 04Bastrop County (east) adds **2,203 permits = 22.4 per 1,000** — even denser than Hays. Far-east exurb expansion.
- 05Austin runs **11.74 permits per 1,000 residents** — STILL the highest in the queue, ahead of Orlando (9.39). **45% multifamily mix** (12,145 of 26,955) — much higher than typical Sun Belt metros. **Permit YoY is +0.1%** — flat (the boom finally peaked).
How to read the map
- 01**Bastrop County (east) is the densest at 22.4 per 1,000** — far-east exurb expansion. The same pattern as Hays — bedroom communities for Austin commuters.
- 02Hays County (south — San Marcos, Kyle) at **19.0 per 1,000** — almost as hot as Bastrop. The I-35 south corridor.
- 03Travis County (the core) at **11.3 per 1,000** — high for a metro core, driven by the multifamily boom in downtown and east Austin.
- 04Williamson County (north — Round Rock, Cedar Park) at **8.15 per 1,000** — moderate but absolute volume is large.
- 05**The pattern is everywhere.** All 5 Austin counties are building hot. This is exactly the supply story behind Austin's flat HPI: the pipeline keeps pumping while demand has cooled.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Travis County | 1,289,054 | $97,169 | $487,600 | 14,509 | +1.6% |
| 2 | Williamson County | 617,396 | $108,309 | $414,600 | 5,034 | |
| 3 | Hays County | 245,351 | $85,827 | $371,400 | 4,663 | +10.9% |
| 4 | Bastrop County | 98,435 | $82,730 | $269,500 | 2,203 | +26.9% |
| 5 | Caldwell County | 46,141 | $68,503 | $215,600 | 546 |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Austin by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Best in 3 of 4 comparable metrics
Austin is closest in size to Sacramento, Portland, Kansas City, Cincinnati. best in class on Unemployment, Net migration, Permit pipeline.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Austin is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Austin | 2.30M | $98K | $435K | 4.45× | 3.3% | +34.0% | 11.74 | +0.59% | 3.2% |
Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA | 2.39M | $94K | $559K | 5.95× | 3.1% | +32.9% | 4.32 | -0.03% | 4.8% |
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA | 2.51M | $95K | $527K | 5.57× | 2.8% | +30.6% | 3.31 | +0.05% | 4.9% |
Kansas City, MO-KS | 2.19M | $82K | $265K | 3.24× | 4.0% | +51.8% | 4.11 | +0.00% | 3.5% |
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN | 2.25M | $79K | $240K | 3.02× | 4.4% | +57.1% | 3.52 | -0.06% | 3.6% |
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD | 2.84M | $97K | $373K | 3.84× | 3.9% | +38.3% | 2.17 | -0.17% | 3.6% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
+13,592
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
+0.59% of metro population
20,167 from top origin
Austin absorbed +13,592 net IRS returns — a strong +0.59% of population, the fifth-highest growth rate in the queue. But the HPI says the migration tailwind has finally stopped lifting prices. People are still arriving; the math has stopped responding.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Travis County, TX | 20,167 |
| Williamson County, TX | 8,904 |
| Harris County, TX | 4,498 |
| Hays County, TX | 3,454 |
| Bexar County, TX | 3,259 |
| Dallas County, TX | 2,346 |
Who lives in Austin
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 35.9
- Owner-occupancy
- 58.9%
- Bachelor's+
- 49.9%
Austin young Midwest metro: Median age 35.9, 58.9% owner-occupancy 49.9% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 46.7% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $97,638
- Median age
- 35.9
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 49.9%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 58.9%
- Vacancy rate
- 5.3%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 46.7%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026