March Home Sales Retest the 12-Month Floor at 3.98M SAAR
Existing home sales in March 2026 fell to 3.98M SAAR, tying the 12-month low set in June 2025. Transactions have been stuck in a 3.98M to 4.27M band for 13 months straight.
The Data
Existing home sales ran at a 3.98 million seasonally adjusted annual rate in March 2026, per FRED series EXHOSLUSM495S, which redistributes the National Association of Realtors monthly release. March fell 3.6% month-over-month from 4.13 million in February.
The March print matches the 3.98 million pace recorded in June 2025, tying the lowest reading in the trailing twelve months. Across the last thirteen monthly prints, transaction pace has moved between 3.98 and 4.27 million — a narrow 7% band.
Month | SAAR (millions) |
|---|---|
Dec 2025 | 4.27 |
Jan 2026 | 4.02 |
Feb 2026 | 4.13 |
Mar 2026 | 3.98 |
March also carried a record-high median price of $408,800, per the NAR March 2026 release — the 33rd consecutive monthly year-over-year price record.
The Context
REI Prime covered the supply-side of the same NAR release on April 20, when active listings posted their first YoY acceleration in a year at +8.1%. The demand-side number is the mirror image: more homes on the market, but transaction pace tied to the 12-month floor.
NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun attributed the March weakness to "lower consumer confidence and softer job growth" in the release statement. Bill McBride at Calculated Risk has noted that rate-locked owners hold the structural key to supply — and that same lock weighs on the demand side when move-up buyers face a payment shock on any trade.
Mortgage rates did ease through the month. Freddie Mac's PMMS moved from 6.46% on April 2 to 6.30% on April 16 — a 16 basis-point decline. Yet March transactions still fell. The months-of-supply for new construction sat at 9.7 months in January, the most recent print — a level typically seen only in downturns.
Also Moving
- Unemployment held at 4.3% in March, per FRED UNRATE. Labor is steady even as the housing market stalls on the demand side.
- New home sales revised outlook flat. NAR's updated 2026 forecast calls for existing-home sales up 4% on the year and new-home sales unchanged (NAR).
- Builder confidence at 34 in April. NAHB's Housing Market Index is at its lowest since September 2025, per REI Prime's April 16 brief.
What to Watch
Three observable signals over the next 30 days:
- May 22: NAR releases April existing-home sales. Whether the April print breaks out of the 3.98 to 4.27 million band — on either side — will be the clearest read on whether lower rates in late April and early May are pulling buyers off the sidelines.
- FOMC meets May 6-7. Consensus is a hold at 4.25 to 4.50%. Any change in the statement language about shelter inflation would move the 10-year yield that drives mortgage rates.
- Census new home sales for March (release date April 24). A second consecutive drop in the 9.7-month new-home supply reading would argue that builders are working through unsold inventory; a rise would add further pressure on the demand side of the market.
Data sources: FRED (EXHOSLUSM495S, MORTGAGE30US, MSACSR, UNRATE), NAR Existing-Home Sales, Calculated Risk.
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) is the largest U.S. trade association for single-family and multifamily home builders — a 140,000-member organization that publishes the monthly Housing Market Index, Housing Starts commentary, and New Home Sales analysis.
Read definition →SAAR is the Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate — a single month's economic activity converted to an annual equivalent by first stripping seasonal patterns, then multiplying by 12.
Read definition →CES is the BLS monthly survey of business payrolls that produces nonfarm employment counts at the national, state, and metro level — the establishment-based counterpart to LAUS unemployment data.
Read definition →NAR is the largest U.S. real estate trade association — 1.5 million REALTOR® members — that governs the MLS system, publishes the monthly Existing Home Sales report, owns Realtor.com, and whose 2024 settlement reshaped how buyer agents get paid.
Read definition →A lease is a legally binding contract between a landlord and a tenant that grants the tenant exclusive use of a property for a specified period in exchange for rent — establishing every right, obligation, and financial term that governs the rental relationship.
Read definition →Freddie Mac (Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, FHLMC) is a government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) that purchases mortgages from lenders, packages them into securities, and sells them to investors. Along with Fannie Mae, it supports the conventional mortgage market for 1–4 unit residential properties.
Read definition →Martin Maxwell
Founder & Head of Research, REI PRIME
Specializing in rental properties, I excel in uncovering investments that promise high returns. Sailing the seas is my escape, steering through challenges just like in the world of real estate.
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