Builder Confidence Falls to 34: A 6-Month Low

The Data

34. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index printed 34 in the April 15 release — a 6-month low and the 24th consecutive reading below the neutral 50 threshold. The FRED USHMI series carries the same data point.

A reading below 50 means more builders view conditions as poor than good. The streak below 50 now matches the duration of the 2006-2009 downturn, though other housing indicators have held up better than sentiment. The release attributed weakness to elevated interest rates and policy uncertainty, per Advisor Perspectives' summary of the NAHB statement.

The Context

The April HMI reading arrives as 30-year mortgage rates sit at 6.30%, per FRED MORTGAGE30US — 53 basis points below a year ago but still well above the sub-5% range that preceded the 2022 rate shock.

The 24-month stretch below 50 reflects a structural rather than cyclical shift in the production homebuilding market. New-home starts and sales have held up better than sentiment this cycle, an asymmetry that Calculated Risk has tracked through prior downturns.

REI Prime covered the mortgage-rate level thesis earlier this week; the HMI print extends the signal into builder psychology. Metro-level data on permits and new-construction activity is available at the state and metro hubs.

Also Moving

• Mortgage rates hold — The 30-year fixed sat at 6.30% in the April 17 print, a 4-week low, per FRED MORTGAGE30US.
• Metro price split — 89 of 300 major markets now post year-over-year declines in median listing price while 211 still rise, according to ResiClub's April tracker.
• Inventory rebuild — 11 states now sit above their pre-pandemic 2019 active-listing counts, with Florida down 8% year-over-year, per ResiClub state data.

What to Watch

Three data points over the next 30 days:

1. April 22 — D.R. Horton reports fiscal Q2 earnings. Incentive spending per unit and order cancellation rates will indicate whether builder pessimism is translating into margin pressure.
2. April 29 — March new-home sales from Census. A print below 650,000 SAAR would confirm the HMI signal; above 700,000 would suggest sentiment is lagging transaction data.
3. May 15 — May NAHB HMI release. A second consecutive monthly decline would mark the steepest two-month drop since August 2022.

Data sources: FRED, NAHB, Census, ResiClub.