Pending Sales +1.5% in March — the South Carries the Story
NAR Pending Home Sales rose +1.5% in March 2026, the third straight monthly gain. The South was the only region positive year-over-year, up +2.3% YoY.
The Data
+1.5%. The NAR Pending Home Sales Index rose to that level in March 2026, NAR reported April 21. It was the third consecutive monthly gain. The FRED series USPHSI confirms the print.
The regional breakdown tells a different story. The South was the only census region positive year-over-year, up +2.3% YoY. The Northeast and Midwest both fell year-over-year. The West held roughly flat. Pending home sales lead closings by 30 to 45 days, so April and May closed-transaction data will reflect what March contracts are signaling now.
The Context
HousingWire reported that contract activity has now logged three straight monthly gains despite 30-year mortgage rates sitting above 6%. That run is the longest stretch of monthly contract growth since late 2024.
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun attributed the March lift to improving inventory — active listings are up year-over-year for a 28th straight month — which continues to pull sidelined buyers off the fence. The regional split tracks a broader Southern migration pattern: the South continues to absorb a disproportionate share of net domestic moves, and demand pressure shows up first in contract activity.
Metro-level detail for Southern markets is available via the Atlanta, Dallas, and Charlotte hubs.
Also Moving
- Active listings — inventory rose +4.2% YoY for the week ending April 19, a 28th straight month of growth, per rate.com's April 21 housing report.
- 30-year mortgage rate — held at 6.33% after last week's Iran ceasefire bond rally, per Mortgage News Daily.
- NAHB Housing Market Index — April reading posted 34 on April 15, the lowest since November 2023.
What to Watch
Three signals over the next 30 days:
- April 30: Census New Home Sales for March releases. Consensus sits at 675K SAAR; a print above 700K would extend resale-market strength to new construction.
- May 7: NAR Existing Home Sales for April. Pending sales lead closings by roughly 45 days, so April existing-home data reflects February's PHSI reading.
- May 29: NAR April Pending Home Sales. A fourth consecutive monthly gain would mark the longest run since 2021.
Data sources: NAR Pending Home Sales, FRED USPHSI, HousingWire.
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) is the largest U.S. trade association for single-family and multifamily home builders — a 140,000-member organization that publishes the monthly Housing Market Index, Housing Starts commentary, and New Home Sales analysis.
Read definition →SAAR is the Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate — a single month's economic activity converted to an annual equivalent by first stripping seasonal patterns, then multiplying by 12.
Read definition →CES is the BLS monthly survey of business payrolls that produces nonfarm employment counts at the national, state, and metro level — the establishment-based counterpart to LAUS unemployment data.
Read definition →NAR is the largest U.S. real estate trade association — 1.5 million REALTOR® members — that governs the MLS system, publishes the monthly Existing Home Sales report, owns Realtor.com, and whose 2024 settlement reshaped how buyer agents get paid.
Read definition →Rent is the periodic payment a tenant makes to a landlord in exchange for the right to occupy a property -- the single revenue line that funds your mortgage, expenses, and profit as a rental property investor.
Read definition →A lease is a legally binding contract between a landlord and a tenant that grants the tenant exclusive use of a property for a specified period in exchange for rent — establishing every right, obligation, and financial term that governs the rental relationship.
Read definition →Martin Maxwell
Founder & Head of Research, REI PRIME
Specializing in rental properties, I excel in uncovering investments that promise high returns. Sailing the seas is my escape, steering through challenges just like in the world of real estate.
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