Active Listings +8.1% YoY: The Buyer Window Just Widened

The Number

+8.1%. That's the YoY jump in active housing listings in March — reported in Bill McBride's mid-April overview of the monthly active-listings data. First acceleration in the inventory rebuild since April–May 2025. Every month in between slowed. March snapped it.

Our own data lines up. FRED months of supply jumped from 3.8 in February to 4.1 in March — 7.9% in one month, brushing the 4-month threshold economists call a balanced market. Active listings are still 13.8% below 2017–19 normal, but that gap shrank from 16.8% a month ago. Three points in 30 days is not small.

The Context

The macro flipped this week. The Iran ceasefire brokered by Pakistan held into its second week and rates eased — FRED PMMS was 6.30% on April 16, down 7bps WoW, with daily-tracker prints drifting lower through Friday's close on 10-year yield easing. Friday's brief covered the rate move.

Sentiment flipped too. BiggerPockets' April Investor Pulse survey — 600+ respondents — shows only 12% now expect lower rates, down from 30% in their Q1 read. Median expectation moved from 5.5–5.99% up to 6.0–6.5%. That's the moment investors stop waiting for the rate rally and start underwriting to the rate on the screen.

Also Moving

• Mortgage rate — 6.30% weekly PMMS (April 16 FRED), down 7bps WoW. Daily trackers drifted lower through Friday's close. Thursday's next PMMS is the verified read.
• BP survey sentiment: 65% of investors expect the war to hit RE negatively over the next 3 months. Only 5% positive. Downside-priced sentiment is usually when the best acquisitions clear.
• Apartment concessions at a 12-year high. Industry data cited by CNBC puts January concessions at 16.6% of stabilized units, averaging 10.7% — roughly 5 weeks free. Our national monthly rent index reads $1,910, +1.8% YoY. Gross. Net of concessions, effective growth is near zero.
• Census housing starts + permits delayed to April 29. Both Feb and March reports pushed back two weeks. Next federal supply print is 9 days out.

The Investor Read

The buyer window is wider this week. Three moves change.

Hunting? More active listings means sellers compete with each other, not just with rates. Offers 8–12% below list on a 60+ day listing aren't lowball — they're the comp now. Austin and the Gulf Coast had already broken; the acceleration says the pattern is spreading.

Underwriting? Stop modeling 45–60 day DOM. Plug in 90–120. And stop modeling 3% rent growth — 9 metros already have negative rent prints, and concessions drag effective rent below the headline.

Already own? Don't rush to list into this. Either hold and ride it, or price aggressively today — waiting "until the market recovers" is the expensive read.

Which position are you in? Reply — I'll run metro-specific numbers in next week's brief.