Ogden-Clearfield, UT
**Defense + aerospace + family Mormon hub of the Wasatch Front.** Ogden-Clearfield runs HPI **+50.5% over 5yr** with **YoY +2.53%** sustained. **P/I 4.45 moderate (well below UT state median 5.03), R/I 19.7% extremely comfortable, Cap proxy 2.88% tight**. MHV $437K. FMR 2BR $1,614. **MHHI $98,361 — 5th-highest in T5 queue**. 4 counties (Davis 363K, Weber 263K, Box Elder 58K, Morgan 12K). **Permits 5.94/1k strong**, **Permit YoY +59.2% major acceleration**. **50/50 SF/multi balanced**. Migration +1,352 (+0.19% steady). **Unemployment 3.3% — very tight labor market**. Owner-occupancy 76.4% high. **Median age 32.8 — youngest in queue tied with Visalia (LDS family demographic)**. Anchored by **Hill Air Force Base** (largest single-site employer in Utah, F-35 sustainment depot), Autoliv, Williams International, Boeing, Northrop Grumman, IRS Service Center, Weber State University, plus the Wasatch Front skiing economy.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
4.45×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Utah
- 5.03×-0.58
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
19.7%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Utah
- 19.7%=
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%-3.6
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
tight
Cap rate proxy
2.9%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Utah
- 2.6%+0.2
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
steady
Net migration
+0.19%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Utah
- 0.19%=
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%+0.16
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
5.94
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Utah
- 7.89
- vs U.S.
- 3.49+2.46
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
healthy
Unemployment
3.3%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%-0.7
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Ogden
Ogden-Clearfield, UT is home to 696,650 residents in 4 counties — Davis, Weber, Box Elder, and Morgan. The metro pulled 4,141 building permits over the trailing twelve months according to the Census Bureau Building Permits Survey — 5.94 per 1,000 residents, well above the national pace of 3.49. The cap rate proxy sits at 2.88% — tight — and the price-to-income ratio is 4.45 moderate (well below the Utah state median of 5.03). Median household income is $98,361 (the 5th-highest in any T5 metro in the queue), the median home value is $437K, and the BLS LAUS unemployment rate is 3.3% — very tight labor market.
The structural story is defense + aerospace + family Mormon hub of the Wasatch Front. Ogden is the more affordable cousin to Salt Lake City and Provo — same Wasatch mountain backdrop, same LDS family demographic, same Mormon work culture, but a meaningfully cheaper entry price. The corporate / institutional roster:
- Hill Air Force Base (Davis County) — the largest single-site employer in Utah with ~26,000 military and civilian workers. Hill AFB is the F-35 Lightning II sustainment depot for the entire Air Force, plus the home of the 75th Air Base Wing and the Air Force Sustainment Center's Ogden Air Logistics Complex.
- Northrop Grumman missile rocket motor plant in Promontory (Box Elder County) — historic ATK / ATK Launch Systems site, builder of the Space Shuttle solid rocket boosters and now the SLS boosters.
- Williams International — small turbofan engine manufacturer.
- Autoliv — automotive safety systems (airbags) North American HQ.
- Internal Revenue Service Service Center in Ogden — one of only a few IRS processing centers in the U.S.
- Weber State University — 30,000+ student regional university.
- Boeing, L3Harris, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon all have significant defense contractor offices around Hill AFB.
The county distribution:
- Davis County (363,032 residents, 1,895 permits TTM = 5.22 per 1,000) — Layton, Bountiful, Clearfield (host of Hill AFB), Centerville, Farmington, Kaysville, Syracuse, West Bountiful. 46% of the metro pipeline. MHHI $108K, MHV $470K. Permit YoY +107.33% — explosive acceleration.
- Weber County (262,960 residents, 1,551 permits = 5.90 per 1,000) — Ogden proper, Roy, North Ogden, South Ogden, Pleasant View, Riverdale, Washington Terrace. The urban core. Permit YoY +11.58%.
- Box Elder County (58,291 residents, 509 permits = 8.73 per 1,000) — Brigham City, Tremonton, Perry, Willard. Anchored by the Northrop Grumman Promontory rocket plant and the Bear River bird refuge. Permit YoY +39.07%.
- Morgan County (12,367 residents, 186 permits = 15.04 per 1,000) — Morgan, Mountain Green. The highest per-capita rate in the metro by far. MHHI $126,092 (the highest in the metro), MHV $600,900. Mountain canyon territory absorbing the Wasatch Front affluent overflow. Permit YoY +20.78%.
Construction is 50% single-family / 50% multifamily (2,082 SF / 242 multi-2-4 / 1,817 multi-5+) — another exceptionally balanced split like Colorado Springs. The high apartment share reflects Hill AFB rotation cycles + Weber State University + the Salt Lake City overflow apartment boom.
What's changing: net IRS migration is +1,352 returns (+0.19% of population) — modest steady. According to IRS Statistics of Income, Ogden absorbs Salt Lake City overflow plus military rotation in/out of Hill AFB (much of which doesn't show up in IRS data). Owner-occupancy 76.4% (very high — LDS family ownership culture), vacancy 4.7% (very low — supply is tight despite the building pace), bachelors 34.2%, median age 32.8 — tied with Visalia for youngest in the queue, driven by LDS family formation.
So what does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow — Ogden does NOT pencil. The cap proxy at 2.88% tight combined with the high $437K median home value means you're paying for the Hill AFB stability and the LDS family demand premium. Rents at $1,614 don't catch up.
- If you're playing appreciation — Ogden is the affordable Wasatch Front entry with the youngest demographic in the queue. The structural drivers are: (1) Hill AFB payroll is anchored — F-35 sustainment is a 30-year mission, (2) LDS family formation creates structural housing demand independent of broader cycles, (3) Salt Lake City overflow is permanent. Buy and hold for the Hill AFB + LDS family formation decade. Focus on Davis County (Layton, Clearfield) — closest to Hill AFB and the lowest entry point.
- If you already own here — hold and add. The +59.2% permit YoY says builders see what you see. The very low vacancy and high MHHI tell you the rents have room to grow without burnout. Add carefully — the metro is approaching the upper end of affordability.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+50.5%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+2.5% YoY
$437,700 median home value
Ogden home prices climbed 50.5% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a steady appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change of 2.5% suggests steady appreciation continuing.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Ogden ran **+50.5% over five years** — solid Mountain West territory, beating the U.S. metros average (+34.3%) by 16 points.
- 02**Recent YoY is +2.53%** — moderate, sustained. Ogden has stabilized after the 2020-2022 spike that hit Provo and Boise harder.
- 03Inside Utah, Ogden is the more affordable cousin to Salt Lake City and Provo — same Wasatch Front, better entry price.
- 04U.S. metros ran **+34.3%** over the same window. Ogden outperformed by ~16 points on the strength of the Hill Air Force Base + LDS family demographic combo.
- 05The takeaway: Ogden is the **affordable Wasatch Front entry** — defense payroll smoothing the cycle, the youngest demographic in the queue tied with Visalia.
Where the value tier sits — top 4 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan County | $600,900 | $126,092 | 4.77× | moderate |
| Davis County | $470,500 | $108,058 | 4.35× | moderate |
| Weber County | $389,200 | $87,083 | 4.47× | moderate |
| Box Elder County | $357,400 | $77,865 | 4.59× | moderate |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,614
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
19.7% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 19.7% of their income — 3.6 points below the U.S. average (23.3%) right at Utah (19.7%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,281 | $15.4K | 15.6% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,614 | $19.4K | 19.7% | comfortable |
| 3 BR | $2,163 | $26.0K | 26.4% | moderate |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
3.3%
BLS LAUS · latest month
Ogden's labor market is healthy, with unemployment running at 3.3% — 0.7 points below the U.S. metros average (4.0%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
3.3%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$98,361
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
4,141
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+59.2% year-over-year
5.94 permits per 1,000 residents
Ogden pulled 4,141 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 59.2% year-over-year. That works out to 5.94 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
2,082
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
242
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
1,817
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 4 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Davis County leads with 1,895 TTM permits = 5.22 per 1,000** — Layton, Bountiful, Clearfield, Centerville, Farmington, Kaysville, Syracuse, West Bountiful. **46% of the metro pipeline.** Permit YoY **+107.33%** — explosive acceleration.
- 02**Weber County** (Ogden, Roy, North Ogden, South Ogden, Pleasant View, Riverdale, Washington Terrace) issued **1,551 permits = 5.90 per 1,000** — the urban core. Permit YoY +11.58%.
- 03**Box Elder County** (Brigham City, Tremonton, Perry, Willard) issued **509 permits = 8.73 per 1,000** — **the densest county per capita**. Anchored by the Northrop Grumman missile rocket motor plant in Promontory. Permit YoY +39.07%.
- 04**Morgan County** (Morgan, Mountain Green) issued **186 permits = 15.04 per 1,000** — **the highest per-capita rate in the metro by far**. Small but very fast-growing affluent satellite. **MHHI $126K** (highest in metro). Permit YoY +20.78%.
- 05Ogden runs **5.94 permits per 1,000 residents** — above the national 3.49. **Permit YoY +59.2% major sustained acceleration**.
How to read the map
- 01**Morgan County (east, Morgan/Mountain Green) is densest at 15.04 per 1,000** — small but absorbing the Wasatch Front affluent overflow. Mountain canyon territory.
- 02**Box Elder County (north, Brigham City/Tremonton) at 8.73 per 1,000** — anchored by the Northrop Grumman Promontory rocket plant and the Bear River bird refuge.
- 03**Weber County (urban core, Ogden) at 5.90 per 1,000** — Ogden proper, Roy, North Ogden, South Ogden. Anchored by Hill AFB across the Davis/Weber line, Weber State University, and the historic Union Pacific railhead.
- 04**Davis County (south, Layton/Bountiful) at 5.22 per 1,000** — the largest population center, **Hill Air Force Base** (largest single-site employer in Utah, F-35 sustainment depot), Antelope Island.
- 05**The pattern is uniformly above national** — all four counties build at >5/1k, with Morgan and Box Elder running well above. Defense payroll + LDS family formation + Salt Lake City overflow = sustained construction demand.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Davis County | 363,032 | $108,058 | $470,500 | 1,895 | +107.3% |
| 2 | Weber County | 262,960 | $87,083 | $389,200 | 1,551 | +11.6% |
| 3 | Box Elder County | 58,291 | $77,865 | $357,400 | 509 | +39.1% |
| 4 | Morgan County | 12,367 | $126,092 | $600,900 | 186 | +20.8% |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Ogden by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Ogden is closest in size to Provo, Madison, Colorado Springs, Stockton.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Ogden is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Ogden | 0.70M | $98K | $438K | 4.45× | 2.9% | +50.5% | 5.94 | +0.19% | 3.3% |
Provo-Orem, UT | 0.68M | $97K | $487K | 5.04× | 2.3% | +53.0% | 11.27 | +0.23% | 3.5% |
Madison, WI | 0.68M | $87K | $345K | 3.97× | 3.8% | +53.4% | 10.22 | -0.24% | 2.4% |
Colorado Springs, CO | 0.76M | $87K | $432K | 4.95× | 3.1% | +37.7% | 7.54 | +0.19% | 3.6% |
Stockton, CA | 0.78M | $89K | $495K | 5.59× | 2.7% | +34.5% | 3.12 | +0.17% | 6.4% |
Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA | 0.71M | $84K | $252K | 3.00× | 4.1% | +41.5% | 7.80 | +0.05% | 3.3% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
+1,352
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
+0.19% of metro population
4,292 from top origin
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Salt Lake County, UT | 4,292 |
| Weber County, UT | 3,051 |
| Davis County, UT | 2,999 |
| Utah County, UT | 1,019 |
| Cache County, UT | 728 |
| Box Elder County, UT | 515 |
Who lives in Ogden
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 32.8
- Owner-occupancy
- 76.4%
- Bachelor's+
- 34.2%
Ogden young Midwest metro: Median age 32.8, 76.4% owner-occupancy 34.2% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 42.0% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $98,361
- Median age
- 32.8
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 34.2%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 76.4%
- Vacancy rate
- 4.7%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 42.0%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Jan 2026 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Jan 2026 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026