Pittsburgh, PA
The cash-flow market with the surprise YoY. Pittsburgh runs the cheapest median home in the queue at $204,500, a 4.95% cap rate proxy that actually works, and 2.77 P/I (affordable). The reputation says rust belt — the data says +4.74% YoY HPI (one of the strongest recent prints in the queue) and 3.6% unemployment (tighter than national). Net migration is −3,153, but the people leaving are mostly retirees.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
affordable
Price to income
2.77×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Pennsylvania
- 3.03×-0.26
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×-0.66
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
21.1%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Pennsylvania
- 22.4%-1.3
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%-2.2
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
5.0%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Pennsylvania
- 4.9%+0.1
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%+0.6
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
shrinking
Net migration
-0.13%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Pennsylvania
- 0.09%
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline growing
Permit pipeline
2.17
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Pennsylvania
- 2.17=
- vs U.S.
- 3.49
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
healthy
Unemployment
3.6%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Pennsylvania
- 3.8%-0.2
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%-0.4
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is the misunderstood metro. Across 7 counties — Allegheny at the core plus Butler, Westmoreland, Washington, Beaver, Fayette, Armstrong — the metro packs 2.4 million residents with a household income of $73,942 (Census ACS) and a median home value of $204,500 — the cheapest in the queue. The HUD Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom is $1,299 — also the lowest in the queue. The House Price Index ran +42.4% over five years (FHFA HPI) — above the national +34.3%, despite the rust-belt reputation.
The interesting fact is that Pittsburgh is quietly accelerating. YoY HPI is +4.74% — one of the strongest recent prints in the queue, ahead of St. Louis, Minneapolis, and Charlotte. Unemployment is 3.6%, tighter than the national 4.0% and tighter than the Pennsylvania state median. The cap rate proxy is 4.95% — solid, above the 4.4% national. Price-to-income is 2.77 — affordable, one of only two metros in the queue (with St. Louis) where the label is "affordable" rather than "moderate."
The 7-county geometry is concentrated:
- Allegheny County (1.25M pop, $216,700 MHV) leads with 2,650 permits TTM — Pittsburgh proper plus Mt Lebanon, Fox Chapel, Bethel Park. 52% of the pipeline.
- Butler County (195K pop, $275,600 MHV) is the high-velocity exurb at 1,105 permits = 5.68 per 1,000 — Cranberry Township is the metro's only real growth node.
- Westmoreland County (354K pop, $193,100 MHV) and Washington County (210K pop, $220,600 MHV) each add ~400-430 permits — mature, slow southern and eastern suburbs.
- Beaver, Fayette, Armstrong combined add fewer than 600 permits — small rural counties, contracting demographically.
Pittsburgh runs 2.17 permits per 1,000 residents — well below the national 3.49 and exactly at the Pennsylvania state median. Permit YoY is +6.4% — modest acceleration. Supply is tight, which is why prices keep climbing despite negative migration.
What's changing: net IRS migration is −3,153 returns (IRS SOI) — the metro is losing residents on net. But the headline masks what's actually happening: retirees are leaving for the South while working-age households stay. Unemployment 3.6% confirms it — the labor market is tighter than the national average. Owner-occupancy 70.5% (top tier in the queue), bachelor's-or-higher 37.4%. Inside Pennsylvania, Pittsburgh is #2 by population, #2 by permits, #15 of 20 by 5-year HPI.
What does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow: Pittsburgh works. 4.95% cap proxy on a $204K median is the most workable math in any major Northeast or Midwest metro. Look at Allegheny County's east-end neighborhoods (Squirrel Hill, Highland Park, Lawrenceville) and the South Hills. Skip Fayette and Beaver — those are contracting.
- If you're playing appreciation: Cranberry/Butler County is the only growth pocket, but the metro-wide YoY HPI is +4.74%, which is one of the queue leaders. The narrative hasn't caught up with the data.
- If you already own here: Hold and lean in. The labor market is strong, supply is tight, the price floor is sticky, and the YoY is accelerating. Pittsburgh is the rust-belt comeback that no one is talking about.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+42.4%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+4.7% YoY
$204,500 median home value
Pittsburgh home prices climbed 42.4% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a steady appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change of 4.7% suggests steady appreciation continuing.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Pittsburgh ran **+42.4% over five years** — above the U.S. metros average of +34.3%, despite the rust-belt reputation. The line moves slowly but steadily upward.
- 02Inside Pennsylvania, Pittsburgh ranks **#15 of 20** for 5-year HPI — bottom half of its own state. The smaller PA metros (State College, Lancaster, Harrisburg) ran harder.
- 03**Recent YoY is +4.74%** — one of the **strongest recent prints in the queue**, behind only St. Louis and Minneapolis. Pittsburgh is quietly accelerating.
- 04U.S. metros ran **+34.3%** over the same window. Pittsburgh outperformed by ~8pp — quietly one of the better-performing major metros.
- 05The takeaway: Pittsburgh is the **misunderstood metro**. Reputation says rust belt; data says affordable + accelerating + cap math that works. The narrative has not caught up.
Where the value tier sits — top 5 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Butler County | $275,600 | $86,775 | 3.18× | moderate |
| Washington County | $220,600 | $77,487 | 2.85× | affordable |
| Allegheny County | $216,700 | $76,393 | 2.84× | affordable |
| Westmoreland County | $193,100 | $72,468 | 2.66× | affordable |
| Beaver County | $185,500 | $70,156 | 2.64× | affordable |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,299
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
21.1% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 21.1% of their income — 2.2 points below the U.S. average (23.3%) 1.3 points below Pennsylvania (22.4%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,077 | $12.9K | 17.5% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,299 | $15.6K | 21.1% | comfortable |
| 3 BR | $1,661 | $19.9K | 27.0% | moderate |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
3.6%
BLS LAUS · latest month
Pittsburgh's labor market is healthy, with unemployment running at 3.6% — 0.4 points below the U.S. metros average (4.0%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
3.6%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$73,942
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
5,139
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+6.4% year-over-year
2.17 permits per 1,000 residents
Pittsburgh pulled 5,139 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a modest expansion 6.4% year-over-year. That works out to 2.17 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
3,551
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
91
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
1,497
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 7 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Allegheny County leads with 2,650 permits TTM** — Pittsburgh proper plus the inner-ring suburbs (Mt Lebanon, Fox Chapel, Bethel Park). 52% of the metro pipeline.
- 02**Butler County is the high-velocity exurb at 1,105 permits = 5.68 per 1,000** — Cranberry Township is the metro's northern growth pole, anchored by tech/healthcare relocations.
- 03Westmoreland and Washington counties (the southern + eastern suburbs) each add **400-500 permits = ~1.7-2.0 per 1,000** — slow, mature suburban counties.
- 04Beaver, Fayette, and Armstrong counties combined add fewer than 600 permits — small rural counties, very low pace.
- 05Pittsburgh runs **2.17 permits per 1,000 residents** — well below the national 3.49 and even below most rust-belt peers. **Permit YoY is +6.4%** — modest acceleration. Supply is tight, which is why HPI is climbing.
How to read the map
- 01**Butler County (north) is by far the densest at 5.68 per 1,000** — Cranberry Township and Mars are the only real growth nodes in the metro.
- 02Allegheny County (the core) at **2.13 per 1,000** — moderate. The 2,650 absolute permits are big but spread across 1.25M residents.
- 03Washington County (south — Canonsburg, Peters Township) at **2.04 per 1,000** — slow.
- 04Westmoreland, Beaver, Fayette, Armstrong counties all run at **0.7-1.8 per 1,000** — barely building. These are the contracting counties.
- 05**The pattern is clear: ALL of the new construction is in Butler.** Cranberry is the only Pittsburgh submarket with real builder activity. Everything else is in steady state or contracting. If you want supply growth, you go north.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Allegheny County | 1,245,310 | $76,393 | $216,700 | 2,650 | |
| 2 | Westmoreland County | 354,414 | $72,468 | $193,100 | 422 | +17.6% |
| 3 | Washington County | 209,631 | $77,487 | $220,600 | 427 | |
| 4 | Butler County | 194,562 | $86,775 | $275,600 | 1,105 | +39.7% |
| 5 | Beaver County | 167,629 | $70,156 | $185,500 | 299 | +29.4% |
| 6 | Fayette County | 128,417 | $56,093 | $126,900 | 190 | +13.1% |
| 7 | Armstrong County | 65,538 | $64,295 | $146,300 | 46 |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Pittsburgh by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Best in 2 of 5 comparable metrics
Pittsburgh is closest in size to Las Vegas, San Antonio, Cincinnati, Indianapolis. best in class on Cap rate proxy, Price to income, and behind on Net migration, Permit pipeline.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Pittsburgh is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Pittsburgh | 2.37M | $74K | $205K | 2.77× | 5.0% | +42.4% | 2.17 | -0.13% | 3.6% |
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV | 2.27M | $74K | $401K | 5.43× | 3.4% | +52.3% | 5.87 | +0.45% | 5.2% |
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX | 2.57M | $74K | $259K | 3.48× | 4.3% | +41.5% | 3.93 | +0.45% | 3.7% |
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN | 2.25M | $79K | $240K | 3.02× | 4.4% | +57.1% | 3.52 | -0.06% | 3.6% |
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN | 2.11M | $77K | $244K | 3.17× | 4.7% | +53.0% | 5.91 | +0.02% | 2.5% |
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL | 2.68M | $76K | $339K | 4.48× | 4.5% | +58.1% | 9.39 | +0.40% | 4.4% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
-3,153
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
-0.13% of metro population
8,544 from top origin
Pittsburgh lost −3,153 net IRS returns in the latest vintage — −0.13% of population. The metro is shrinking on a household basis, but the people leaving skew toward retirees and the labor market remains tight (3.6% unemployment). Younger working-age households are not the ones leaving.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Allegheny County, PA | 8,544 |
| Westmoreland County, PA | 3,166 |
| Washington County, PA | 2,047 |
| Butler County, PA | 1,761 |
| Beaver County, PA | 1,304 |
| Fayette County, PA | 935 |
Who lives in Pittsburgh
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 42.8
- Owner-occupancy
- 70.5%
- Bachelor's+
- 37.4%
Pittsburgh mature Midwest metro: Median age 42.8, 70.5% owner-occupancy 37.4% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 40.0% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $73,942
- Median age
- 42.8
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 37.4%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 70.5%
- Vacancy rate
- 9.4%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 40.0%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026