Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
**Pennsylvania's capital metro — affordable state-government anchor with strong YoY.** Harrisburg-Carlisle runs HPI **+52.9% over 5yr** with **YoY +5.56%** strong sustained. **P/I 3.02 affordable, R/I 24.1% comfortable, Cap proxy 4.87% workable**. MHV $227K. FMR 2BR $1,326. 3 counties (Dauphin 283K, Cumberland 263K, Perry 47K). **Permits 2.17/1k normal**. Migration +499 (+0.08% steady). **Unemployment 3.2% — very tight labor market**. Anchored by PA state government (capital city), U.S. Army War College (Carlisle Barracks), Hershey Medical Center / Penn State Health, Pinnacle Health, UPMC Pinnacle, Hershey (the chocolate company HQ is in nearby Derry Township), the I-81/I-76/I-83 logistics corridor.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
3.02×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Pennsylvania
- 3.03×-0.01
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×-0.41
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
22.6%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Pennsylvania
- 22.4%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%-0.7
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
4.9%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Pennsylvania
- 4.9%+0.0
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%+0.5
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
steady
Net migration
+0.08%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Pennsylvania
- 0.09%
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%+0.05
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline contracting
Permit pipeline
2.17
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Pennsylvania
- 2.17
- vs U.S.
- 3.49
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
healthy
Unemployment
3.2%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Pennsylvania
- 3.6%-0.4
- vs U.S.
- 3.9%-0.7
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Harrisburg
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA is home to 593,318 residents in 3 counties — Dauphin, Cumberland, and Perry. The metro pulled 1,286 building permits over the trailing twelve months according to the Census Bureau Building Permits Survey — 2.17 per 1,000 residents, below the national pace but near the Pennsylvania state median. The cap rate proxy sits at 4.87% — workable — and the price-to-income ratio is 3.02 affordable (right at the threshold). Median household income is $75,118, the median home value is $227K, and the BLS LAUS unemployment rate is 3.2% — very tight labor market.
The structural story is Pennsylvania's capital + logistics corridor metro. Harrisburg sits at the intersection of I-81, I-76 (the Pennsylvania Turnpike), and I-83 — one of the densest distribution corridor intersections on the East Coast. The anchor stack:
- Pennsylvania state government — Harrisburg is the state capital. ~25,000 state employees.
- Penn State Health / Hershey Medical Center — the flagship academic medical center of Penn State University, located in Derry Township (Hershey).
- U.S. Army War College at Carlisle Barracks (Cumberland County) — the senior-most military education institution in the U.S. Army.
- UPMC Pinnacle — major regional healthcare system.
- Hershey Company — the chocolate giant's hometown (Derry Township, Dauphin County). HersheyPark, Hershey's Chocolate World, and the Hershey Trust.
- I-81 / I-76 / I-83 logistics corridor — Amazon, FedEx, UPS, XPO, and dozens of distribution centers line the corridor from Carlisle to Harrisburg to York.
According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency HPI, Harrisburg ran HPI +52.9% over five years with YoY +5.56% — strong and sustained. The metro is supply-constrained (2.17/1k permits, well below national) and the government + healthcare + logistics triple anchor holds demand steady.
Net IRS migration is +499 returns (+0.08% steady). According to IRS Statistics of Income, Harrisburg absorbs in-state migration from rural central PA plus some Philadelphia spillover. Owner-occupancy 67.4%, vacancy 6.5%, bachelors 34.4%, median age 40.1.
So what does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow — Harrisburg is a clean Mid-Atlantic cash-flow setup. The cap proxy at 4.87% with a $227K median home value and $1,326 Fair Market Rent pencils. Focus on Dauphin County (Harrisburg proper, Colonial Park) and Cumberland County (Mechanicsburg, Camp Hill) — both offer stable government/healthcare employment.
- If you're playing appreciation — Harrisburg compounded +52.9% over 5 years and YoY is still +5.56%. The state government + Penn State Health + logistics corridor is durable and recession-resistant. Buy and hold for the capital city + logistics decade.
- If you already own here — hold and add. The supply constraint (2.17/1k) and the triple anchor keep the appreciation engine running.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+52.9%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+5.6% YoY
$239,100 median home value
Harrisburg home prices climbed 52.9% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a steady appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change of 5.6% is still running hot.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Harrisburg ran **+52.9% over five years** — strong Mid-Atlantic territory, beating the U.S. metros average (+34.3%) by 19 points.
- 02**Recent YoY is +5.56%** — strong, sustained. Harrisburg is one of the strongest current-year performers in the queue.
- 03Inside Pennsylvania, Harrisburg ranks top third by HPI — the state capital advantage.
- 04U.S. metros ran **+34.3%** over the same window. Harrisburg outperformed by ~19 points.
- 05The takeaway: Harrisburg is the **PA capital + logistics corridor compounder** — affordable, healthy labor market, workable cap rate.
Where the value tier sits — top 3 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cumberland County | $261,900 | $85,634 | 3.06× | moderate |
| Perry County | $222,800 | $78,824 | 2.83× | affordable |
| Dauphin County | $222,300 | $74,159 | 3.00× | affordable |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,493
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
22.6% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 22.6% of their income — 0.7 points below the U.S. average (23.3%) right at Pennsylvania (22.4%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,212 | $14.5K | 18.3% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,493 | $17.9K | 22.6% | comfortable |
| 3 BR | $1,920 | $23.0K | 29.1% | moderate |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
3.2%
BLS LAUS · latest month
Harrisburg's labor market is healthy, with unemployment running at 3.2% — 0.7 points below the U.S. metros average (3.9%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
3.2%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$79,281
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
1,286
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
-2.1% year-over-year
2.17 permits per 1,000 residents
Harrisburg pulled 1,286 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a contraction 2.1% year-over-year. That works out to 2.17 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
921
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
50
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
315
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 3 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Dauphin County** (Harrisburg proper, Hershey, Middletown, Steelton, Colonial Park) — the state capital county and home to Hershey Medical Center.
- 02**Cumberland County** (Carlisle, Mechanicsburg, Camp Hill, New Cumberland, Shippensburg) — home to the **U.S. Army War College at Carlisle Barracks** and the I-81 logistics corridor.
- 03**Perry County** (New Bloomfield, Marysville, Newport, Duncannon) — small rural county across the Susquehanna.
- 04Harrisburg runs **2.17 permits per 1,000 residents** — below the national 3.49 but near the PA state median.
- 05The metro is supply-constrained relative to demand — which is part of why the YoY is +5.56%.
How to read the map
- 01**Harrisburg sits on the Susquehanna River** — the capital dome is visible from I-83. The metro extends east-west along the I-81/I-76 corridor.
- 02**Cumberland County (west, Carlisle/Mechanicsburg)** is the affluent bedroom county — Army War College + the Carlisle Pike commercial corridor.
- 03**Dauphin County (east, Harrisburg/Hershey)** is the government + healthcare core — PA state government, Hershey Medical Center / Penn State Health, Three Mile Island site.
- 04**Perry County (north)** is the smallest and most rural — across the Susquehanna, mostly agricultural.
- 05The metro is the **I-81/I-76/I-83 logistics interchange** — one of the densest distribution corridor intersections on the East Coast.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dauphin County | 286,108 | $74,159 | $222,300 | 395 | |
| 2 | Cumberland County | 261,269 | $85,634 | $261,900 | 781 | +1.2% |
| 3 | Perry County | 45,941 | $78,824 | $222,800 | 110 | +20.9% |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Harrisburg by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Best in 2 of 3 comparable metrics
Harrisburg is closest in size to Palm Bay, Modesto, Fayetteville, Spokane. best in class on Cap rate proxy, Price to income.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Harrisburg is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Harrisburg | 0.59M | $79K | $239K | 3.02× | 4.9% | +52.9% | 2.17 | +0.08% | 3.2% |
Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL | 0.61M | $76K | $304K | 4.01× | 4.4% | +54.5% | 7.15 | +1.07% | 4.8% |
Modesto, CA | 0.55M | $80K | $427K | 5.36× | 3.2% | +36.2% | 1.96 | -0.03% | 6.8% |
Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR | 0.55M | $78K | $273K | 3.51× | 3.8% | +71.7% | 16.99 | +0.38% | 3.1% |
Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA | 0.59M | $73K | $366K | 5.02× | 3.3% | +47.2% | 5.10 | +0.34% | 5.2% |
Lancaster, PA | 0.55M | $84K | $279K | 3.34× | 4.3% | +60.2% | 2.76 | -0.03% | 2.7% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
+499
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
+0.08% of metro population
1,969 from top origin
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Dauphin County, PA | 1,969 |
| York County, PA | 1,468 |
| Cumberland County, PA | 1,462 |
| Lancaster County, PA | 955 |
| Lebanon County, PA | 697 |
| Franklin County, PA | 621 |
Who lives in Harrisburg
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 40.1
- Owner-occupancy
- 68.1%
- Bachelor's+
- 35.4%
Harrisburg mature Midwest metro: Median age 40.1, 68.1% owner-occupancy 35.4% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 39.9% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $79,281
- Median age
- 40.1
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 35.4%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 68.1%
- Vacancy rate
- 5.6%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 39.9%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Jan 2026 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Jan 2026 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 10, 2026