Tulsa, OK
The energy-belt builder. Tulsa runs **HPI +52.6% over 5 years** on a $204K median, P/I **3.01** at the affordable boundary, R/I **21.5% comfortable**, and cap proxy **4.64% workable**. Permits run a strong **4.94 per 1,000** with **+47.9% YoY acceleration**. 7-county metro anchored by Tulsa County. Migration +1,293 steady. American Airlines, Cherokee Nation, ONEOK, BOK Financial — energy and aviation underwrite a low-cost, high-build story.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
3.01×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Oklahoma
- 2.79×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×-0.41
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
21.5%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Oklahoma
- 20.8%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%-1.7
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
4.6%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Oklahoma
- 4.9%
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%+0.3
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
steady
Net migration
+0.13%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Oklahoma
- 0.08%+0.05
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%+0.09
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
4.94
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Oklahoma
- 3.26+1.68
- vs U.S.
- 3.49+1.45
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
—
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Oklahoma
- 3.6%
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Tulsa
Tulsa is the energy-belt builder. Across 7 counties — Tulsa at the core plus Rogers, Wagoner, Creek, Osage, Okmulgee, and Pawnee — the metro packs 1.02 million residents with a household income of $67,823 (Census ACS) and a median home value of $204,400 — among the cheapest in the queue. The HUD Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom is $1,217 — the cheapest 2BR FMR of any T5 metro. The House Price Index ran +52.6% over five years (FHFA HPI) — solid plains/Oklahoma territory, beating the U.S. metros average of +34.3% by 18 percentage points.
The interesting fact is that Tulsa hits the affordable + cap rate + permit acceleration trifecta. The price-to-income ratio is 3.01 — right at the affordable boundary. The rent-to-income is 21.5% — comfortable. The cap rate proxy is 4.64% — workable. Permit YoY is +47.9% — massive acceleration. Inside Oklahoma, Tulsa ranks #2 of 5 by population, #2 by permits, #2 by 5-year HPI — only Oklahoma City beats it (and barely). Recent year-over-year HPI is +3.67% — moderate, healthy, well above any cooled Sun Belt metro.
The 7-county geometry concentrates pipeline in 2 dense exurban counties:
- Tulsa County (669K pop, $213,500 MHV) leads with 3,051 permits TTM = 4.56 per 1,000 — Tulsa proper plus Broken Arrow, Bixby, Jenks, Owasso, Sand Springs. 61% of the metro pipeline.
- Rogers County (96K pop, $222,200 MHV) is the density leader at 840 permits = 8.76 per 1,000 — Claremore, Catoosa, Owasso. North-northeast of Tulsa proper.
- Wagoner County (82K pop, $216,000 MHV) issues 674 permits = 8.19 per 1,000 — Coweta, Wagoner, Porter. East-southeast affluent exurban growth.
- Creek, Osage, Okmulgee, Pawnee combined add ~460 permits — smaller rural fringe counties. Pawnee built ZERO in the last 12 months.
Tulsa runs 4.94 permits per 1,000 residents — strong, well above the national 3.49 and the Oklahoma state median of 3.26. The 72% single-family / 26% 5+ multifamily mix is typical Sun Belt-adjacent. Permit YoY +47.9% is one of the largest accelerations in the queue — Tulsa is building hard.
What's changing: net IRS migration is +1,293 returns (IRS SOI) — +0.13% of population, steady inflow above the Oklahoma state median of +0.08%. Owner-occupancy 65.4%, bachelor's-or-higher 29.8% (lower than the queue median — Tulsa is a working-class metro). The labor market is anchored by American Airlines maintenance base, Cherokee Nation Businesses, ONEOK, BOK Financial, Williams Companies, Spirit AeroSystems, Saint Francis Health System, and the oil/gas service cluster. Energy + aviation + tribal — diversified within the energy economy.
What does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow: Tulsa works. 4.64% cap proxy on a $204K median is one of the more workable in the queue. Look at Tulsa County working-class neighborhoods (East Tulsa, Cherry Street/Pearl District periphery) and the Rogers County exurbs (Owasso, Catoosa) for $130K-$180K SFR with strong rent ratios.
- If you're playing appreciation: Tulsa is solid. +52.6% over 5 years with +3.67% YoY is the steady-Eddie pattern. Not the rocket of Rochester or Grand Rapids but more durable than Sun Belt — energy and aviation employment is sticky.
- If you already own here: Hold and consider adding. Rogers and Wagoner County exurbs are still appreciating fast — the +47.9% permit acceleration tells you builders see runway. The low cost basis means even a moderate cycle pullback wouldn't break the deal math.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+52.6%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+3.7% YoY
$204,400 median home value
Tulsa home prices climbed 52.6% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a steady appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change of 3.7% suggests steady appreciation continuing.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Tulsa ran **+52.6% over five years** — solid plains/Oklahoma growth, beating the U.S. metros average (+34.3%) by 18 points and tracking above OKC.
- 02**Recent YoY is +3.67%** — moderate, healthy. Not the rocket of Grand Rapids (+5.50%) or Rochester (+5.74%) but well above Birmingham (+2.88%) or any cooled Sun Belt metro.
- 03Inside Oklahoma, Tulsa ranks **#2 of 5** for 5-year HPI — only Oklahoma City beats it (and barely). **#2 by population, #2 by permits**.
- 04U.S. metros ran **+34.3%** over the same window. Tulsa outperformed the national by ~18 percentage points — a low-cost market with above-average compounding.
- 05The takeaway: Tulsa is **the energy-belt builder** — affordable entry, steady growth, structurally underwritten by oil/gas and aviation employers.
Where the value tier sits — top 5 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rogers County | $222,200 | $77,688 | 2.86× | affordable |
| Wagoner County | $216,000 | $78,520 | 2.75× | affordable |
| Tulsa County | $213,500 | $67,317 | 3.17× | moderate |
| Osage County | $172,300 | $60,482 | 2.85× | affordable |
| Creek County | $170,900 | $61,849 | 2.76× | affordable |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,217
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
21.5% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 21.5% of their income — 1.7 points below the U.S. average (23.3%) 0.8 points above Oklahoma (20.8%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $987 | $11.8K | 17.5% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,217 | $14.6K | 21.5% | comfortable |
| 3 BR | $1,602 | $19.2K | 28.3% | moderate |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
—
BLS LAUS · latest month
Tulsa's labor market is softening, with unemployment running at —.
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
—
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$67,823
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
5,027
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+47.9% year-over-year
4.94 permits per 1,000 residents
Tulsa pulled 5,027 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 47.9% year-over-year. That works out to 4.94 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
3,616
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
114
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
1,297
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 7 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Tulsa County leads with 3,051 TTM permits = 4.56 per 1,000** — Tulsa proper plus Broken Arrow, Bixby, Jenks, Owasso, Sand Springs. 61% of the metro pipeline.
- 02**Wagoner County** (Coweta, Wagoner, Porter) issues **674 permits = 8.19 per 1,000** — the **density leader** of the metro. Affluent eastern/southeastern exurban growth.
- 03**Rogers County** (Claremore, Catoosa, Owasso) builds **840 permits = 8.76 per 1,000** — actually the densest county in the metro, north-northeast of Tulsa proper.
- 04**Creek, Osage, Okmulgee, Pawnee** combined add ~460 permits — smaller rural fringe counties.
- 05Tulsa runs **4.94 permits per 1,000 residents** — strong, well above the national 3.49 and the Oklahoma state median of 3.26. **Permit YoY is +47.9%** — massive acceleration.
How to read the map
- 01**Rogers County (north-northeast) is densest at 8.76 per 1,000** — Claremore, Catoosa, Owasso. The fastest-growing county in the metro by per-capita rate.
- 02**Wagoner County (east-southeast) at 8.19 per 1,000** — Coweta, Wagoner, Porter. Affluent exurban counties leading the build.
- 03Tulsa County (the core) at **4.56 per 1,000** — Tulsa proper, Broken Arrow, Bixby, Jenks, Owasso, Sand Springs. Solid mid-tier rate, large absolute volume.
- 04Creek County (southwest) at **3.86 per 1,000** — Sapulpa, Bristow. Modest building.
- 05**Osage, Okmulgee, Pawnee** all under 4 per 1,000 — small rural fringe counties. Pawnee built ZERO permits in the last 12 months. **The pattern is concentrated in the eastern/northeastern exurban counties.**
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tulsa County | 668,923 | $67,317 | $213,500 | 3,051 | +36.9% |
| 2 | Rogers County | 95,870 | $77,688 | $222,200 | 840 | +63.7% |
| 3 | Wagoner County | 82,269 | $78,520 | $216,000 | 674 | +37.3% |
| 4 | Creek County | 72,076 | $61,849 | $170,900 | 278 | +73.8% |
| 5 | Osage County | 46,004 | $60,482 | $172,300 | 167 | +169.3% |
| 6 | Okmulgee County | 36,900 | $53,123 | $114,600 | 17 | +30.8% |
| 7 | Pawnee County | 15,682 | $57,551 | $125,700 | 0 |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Tulsa by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Best in 2 of 3 comparable metrics
Tulsa is closest in size to Tucson, Fresno, Greenville, Birmingham. best in class on Cap rate proxy, Price to income.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Tulsa is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Tulsa | 1.02M | $68K | $204K | 3.01× | 4.6% | +52.6% | 4.94 | +0.13% | — |
Tucson, AZ | 1.04M | $68K | $287K | 4.22× | 3.8% | +55.1% | 4.44 | +0.21% | 4.1% |
Fresno, CA | 1.01M | $72K | $363K | 5.05× | 3.6% | +47.8% | 2.31 | -0.08% | — |
Greenville-Anderson, SC | 0.93M | $69K | $243K | 3.52× | 4.3% | +64.9% | 8.85 | +0.32% | 4.6% |
Birmingham-Hoover, AL | 1.11M | $70K | $226K | 3.25× | 4.4% | +44.7% | 3.82 | -0.08% | 2.2% |
Albuquerque, NM | 0.92M | $68K | $264K | 3.88× | 4.3% | +53.2% | — | +0.01% | — |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
+1,293
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
+0.13% of metro population
5,685 from top origin
Tulsa absorbed +1,293 net IRS migrants — +0.13% of population. Steady inflow above the Oklahoma state median of +0.08%. The pattern: out-of-state energy workers relocating for the cost basis and the oil/gas + aviation employment cluster.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Tulsa County, OK | 5,685 |
| Wagoner County, OK | 1,620 |
| Rogers County, OK | 1,471 |
| Creek County, OK | 1,313 |
| Oklahoma County, OK | 871 |
| Osage County, OK | 755 |
Who lives in Tulsa
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 37.3
- Owner-occupancy
- 65.4%
- Bachelor's+
- 29.8%
Tulsa relatively young Midwest metro: Median age 37.3, 65.4% owner-occupancy 29.8% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 41.0% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $67,823
- Median age
- 37.3
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 29.8%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 65.4%
- Vacancy rate
- 9.7%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 41.0%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026