Dayton-Kettering, OH
**Birthplace of aviation, second-strongest YoY in queue.** Dayton runs HPI **+57% over 5yr** with **YoY +6.98% (second only to Allentown +7.14%)**. P/I **2.67 affordable**, R/I **21.9% comfortable**, **cap proxy 5.33% workable**. $186K median, FMR 2BR $1,273. 3 counties (Montgomery + Greene + Miami). Permits 2.64/1k, **YoY +29.4% accelerating**. Migration −284 essentially flat. Anchored by Wright-Patterson AFB (the Air Force's largest research center), Premier Health, U Dayton, Sinclair, Honda Anna engine plant.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
affordable
Price to income
2.67×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Ohio
- 2.67×=
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×-0.76
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
21.9%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Ohio
- 21.2%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%-1.4
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
5.3%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Ohio
- 5.0%+0.4
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%+1.0
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
shrinking
Net migration
-0.03%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Ohio
- -0.03%=
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
2.64
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Ohio
- 1.63+1.01
- vs U.S.
- 3.49
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
—
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Ohio
- 3.6%
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Dayton
Dayton is the birthplace of aviation, and the second-strongest YoY HPI in the queue. Across 3 counties — Montgomery at the core plus Greene and Miami — the metro packs 813,000 residents with a household income of $69,752 (Census ACS) and a median home value of $186,200. The HUD Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom is $1,273 — among the cheapest in the queue. The House Price Index ran +57.0% over five years (FHFA HPI) — solid rust-belt territory, beating the U.S. metros average of +34.3% by 23 percentage points.
The interesting fact is that Dayton hits all the right numbers. Recent year-over-year HPI is +6.98% — the second-strongest current-year HPI of any T5 metro in the queue (only Allentown +7.14% beats it). The price-to-income ratio is 2.67 — affordable. The rent-to-income is 21.9% — comfortable. The cap rate proxy is 5.33% — workable. Inside Ohio, Dayton ranks #4 of 14 by population, #4 by permits, #5 by 5-year HPI — middle of the state but reaccelerating.
The 3-county geometry is balanced:
- Montgomery County (536K pop, $167,400 MHV) leads with 1,301 permits TTM = 2.43 per 1,000 — Dayton proper plus Kettering, Centerville, Huber Heights, Riverside. 61% of the metro pipeline.
- Greene County (168K pop, $238,000 MHV) builds 511 permits = 3.05 per 1,000 — Beavercreek, Fairborn, Xenia. Anchored by Wright-Patterson AFB and Wright State University. The affluent eastern county.
- Miami County (109K pop, $209,200 MHV) issues 333 permits = 3.06 per 1,000 — Troy, Piqua, Tipp City. Northern county along I-75.
Dayton runs 2.64 permits per 1,000 residents — below the national 3.49 but above the Ohio state median of 1.63. The 56% single-family / 37% 5+ multifamily mix is balanced. Permit YoY +29.4% — strong sustained acceleration.
What's changing: net IRS migration is −284 returns (IRS SOI) — −0.03% of population, essentially flat (identical to the Ohio state median). Owner-occupancy 64.8%, bachelor's-or-higher 32.0%, median age 39.1. The labor market is anchored by Wright-Patterson Air Force Base (the Air Force's largest research, development, and engineering installation by land area, employing 30,000+ personnel and contractors), Premier Health Partners, Kettering Health, the University of Dayton, Wright State University, Sinclair Community College, the Honda Anna engine plant (north in Logan County), and the legacy Delphi/GM auto-supply remnants. Defense + healthcare + education + manufacturing.
What does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow: Dayton works. 5.33% cap proxy on a $186K median is one of the better margins in the queue, the affordability is real (P/I 2.67), and the Wright-Patterson rent base is structural. Look at Montgomery County working-class neighborhoods (Belmont, Walnut Hills, Five Oaks) and Riverside/Huber Heights for $120K-$170K SFR.
- If you're playing appreciation: Dayton is solid. +57% over 5 years with +6.98% YoY is a rare combination. The cycle is reaccelerating after the post-2022 pause. The structural fundamentals (Wright-Patterson, U Dayton, +29.4% permit acceleration) say the runway is real.
- If you already own here: Hold and add. The Greene County corridor (Beavercreek, Fairborn) is where the new build concentrates and where the Wright-Patterson contractor wave is densest.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+57.0%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+7.0% YoY
$186,200 median home value
Dayton home prices climbed 57.0% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a steady appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change of 7.0% is still running hot.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Dayton ran **+57.0% over five years** — solid rust-belt territory, beating the U.S. metros average (+34.3%) by 23 points.
- 02**Recent YoY is +6.98%** — **the second-strongest current-year HPI of any T5 metro in the queue** (only Allentown +7.14% beats it).
- 03Inside Ohio, Dayton ranks **#5 of 14** for 5-year HPI — middle of the state. **#4 by population, #4 by permits**.
- 04U.S. metros ran **+34.3%** over the same window. Dayton outperformed by ~23 points and is reaccelerating.
- 05The takeaway: Dayton is the **affordable Midwest with cap rate AND momentum** — strong fundamentals across every dimension.
Where the value tier sits — top 3 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greene County | $238,000 | $85,218 | 2.79× | affordable |
| Miami County | $209,200 | $74,175 | 2.82× | affordable |
| Montgomery County | $167,400 | $64,403 | 2.60× | affordable |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,273
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
21.9% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 21.9% of their income — 1.4 points below the U.S. average (23.3%) 0.7 points above Ohio (21.2%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,009 | $12.1K | 17.4% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,273 | $15.3K | 21.9% | comfortable |
| 3 BR | $1,651 | $19.8K | 28.4% | moderate |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
—
BLS LAUS · latest month
Dayton's labor market is softening, with unemployment running at —.
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
—
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$69,752
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
2,145
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+29.4% year-over-year
2.64 permits per 1,000 residents
Dayton pulled 2,145 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 29.4% year-over-year. That works out to 2.64 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
1,199
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
158
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
788
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 3 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Montgomery County leads with 1,301 TTM permits = 2.43 per 1,000** — Dayton proper plus Kettering, Centerville, Huber Heights, Riverside. 61% of the metro pipeline.
- 02**Greene County** (Beavercreek, Fairborn, Xenia, Wright-Patterson AFB area) builds **511 permits = 3.05 per 1,000** — anchored by the Air Force base and Wright State University.
- 03**Miami County** (Troy, Piqua, Tipp City) issues **333 permits = 3.06 per 1,000** — northern county along I-75.
- 04Dayton runs **2.64 permits per 1,000 residents** — below the national 3.49 but **above the Ohio state median of 1.63**.
- 05**Permit YoY +29.4%** — strong sustained acceleration.
How to read the map
- 01**Miami County (north, Troy/Piqua) is densest at 3.06 per 1,000** — small but proportionally building.
- 02**Greene County (east, Wright-Patterson AFB) at 3.05 per 1,000** — Beavercreek, Fairborn, Xenia. Anchored by the Air Force base.
- 03**Montgomery County (the urban core) at 2.43 per 1,000** — Dayton proper, Kettering, Centerville, Huber Heights, Riverside. Mature urban county with large absolute volume.
- 04**The pattern is balanced** — all three counties build at >2.4/1k, no dead spots.
- 05Greene County is the growth engine because of Wright-Patterson AFB (the Air Force's largest research and engineering installation).
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montgomery County | 536,121 | $64,403 | $167,400 | 1,301 | +51.3% |
| 2 | Greene County | 167,567 | $85,218 | $238,000 | 511 | |
| 3 | Miami County | 108,818 | $74,175 | $209,200 | 333 | +16.0% |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Dayton by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Best in 2 of 4 comparable metrics
Dayton is closest in size to Columbia, Cape Coral, Baton Rouge, Knoxville. best in class on Cap rate proxy, Price to income, and behind on Net migration.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Dayton is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Dayton | 0.81M | $70K | $186K | 2.67× | 5.3% | +57.0% | 2.64 | -0.03% | — |
Columbia, SC | 0.83M | $66K | $213K | 3.23× | 4.7% | +60.4% | 0.82 | +0.07% | — |
Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL | 0.77M | $73K | $326K | 4.46× | 4.7% | +47.8% | 17.10 | +1.06% | — |
Baton Rouge, LA | 0.87M | $69K | $232K | 3.37× | 4.0% | +27.6% | 5.00 | -0.03% | 3.7% |
Knoxville, TN | 0.88M | $70K | $255K | 3.66× | 4.5% | +77.4% | 9.10 | +0.16% | — |
Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR | 0.75M | $65K | $199K | 3.05× | 4.5% | +43.9% | 3.86 | +0.09% | — |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
-284
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
-0.03% of metro population
3,252 from top origin
Dayton was essentially flat on net IRS migration — losing −284 returns, −0.03% of population. Identical to the Ohio state median. Net migration isn't the engine here — the engine is Wright-Patterson AFB plus the affordable price base hitting cycle inflection.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Montgomery County, OH | 3,252 |
| Greene County, OH | 2,283 |
| Warren County, OH | 1,296 |
| Clark County, OH | 1,054 |
| Miami County, OH | 827 |
| Butler County, OH | 807 |
Who lives in Dayton
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 39.1
- Owner-occupancy
- 64.8%
- Bachelor's+
- 32.0%
Dayton relatively young Midwest metro: Median age 39.1, 64.8% owner-occupancy 32.0% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 42.0% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $69,752
- Median age
- 39.1
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 32.0%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 64.8%
- Vacancy rate
- 7.9%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 42.0%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026