Winston-Salem, NC
**The post-tobacco Triad city — affordable, healthy, and quietly compounding.** Winston-Salem runs HPI **+64.9% over 5yr** (top quartile) with **YoY +4.04%** strong sustained. **P/I 3.32 moderate, R/I 23.0% comfortable, Cap proxy 4.62% workable**. MHV $213K cheap. FMR 2BR $1,232. 5 counties (Forsyth + Davidson + Stokes + Davie + Yadkin). **Permits 7.13/1k strong** (above national 3.49). Permit YoY +20.4% accelerating. **93/7 SF/multi heavily single-family**. Migration **+1,512 (+0.22% steady)**. **Unemployment 3.5% healthy**. Anchored by **Reynolds American / R.J. Reynolds Tobacco HQ** (now BAT), **HanesBrands HQ**, **Truist Financial HQ** (the legacy of BB&T merging with SunTrust 2019), **Krispy Kreme HQ**, **Wake Forest University**, Wake Forest Baptist Medical Center, Winston-Salem State University, the historic Old Salem and Tanglewood Park.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
3.32×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs North Carolina
- 3.36×-0.04
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×-0.11
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
23.0%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs North Carolina
- 25.2%-2.2
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%-0.3
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
4.5%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs North Carolina
- 4.4%+0.1
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%+0.2
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
steady
Net migration
+0.22%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs North Carolina
- 0.20%+0.02
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%+0.19
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
7.13
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs North Carolina
- 7.51
- vs U.S.
- 3.49+3.64
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
healthy
Unemployment
3.5%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%-0.5
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Winston
Winston-Salem, NC is home to 678,243 residents in 5 counties — Forsyth, Davidson, Stokes, Davie, and Yadkin. The metro pulled 4,833 building permits over the trailing twelve months according to the Census Bureau Building Permits Survey — 7.13 per 1,000 residents, 2x the national pace of 3.49. The cap rate proxy sits at 4.62% — workable — and the price-to-income ratio is 3.32 moderate (right at the NC state median). Median household income is $64,282, the median home value is $213K, and the BLS LAUS unemployment rate is 3.5% — healthy.
The structural story is the post-tobacco Triad city quietly compounding. Winston-Salem is the second city of the Piedmont Triad (with Greensboro), built on tobacco but transitioned to a corporate headquarters + healthcare + university stack:
- R.J. Reynolds Tobacco / Reynolds American Inc. HQ — the original tobacco capital. R.J.R. founded in Winston in 1875, now part of British American Tobacco. Still one of the largest employers in Forsyth County.
- HanesBrands HQ — the textile giant (Hanes, Champion, Maidenform). HQ is technically in Winston-Salem's suburbs, but the corporate office complex is shared with Greensboro.
- Truist Financial Corporation HQ — created by the 2019 merger of BB&T (originally Branch Banking and Trust, founded in Wilson NC and HQ'd in Winston-Salem after merger) and SunTrust. ~6th-largest US bank by assets.
- Krispy Kreme HQ — founded in Winston-Salem in 1937. The "Hot Now" doughnut empire.
- Wake Forest University — selective Tier 1 R2 research university, ~9,000 students.
- Wake Forest Baptist Medical Center / Atrium Health Wake Forest Baptist — major regional teaching hospital, anchor of the Innovation Quarter biomedical district.
- Winston-Salem State University — historically Black university, ~5,000 students.
- University of North Carolina School of the Arts — only public arts conservatory in the Carolinas.
- Lowe's Foods — supermarket chain HQ.
The county distribution:
- Forsyth County (383,739 residents, 2,975 permits TTM = 7.75 per 1,000) — Winston-Salem proper, Kernersville (east), Clemmons (SW affluent), Lewisville, Tobaccoville, Rural Hall, Walkertown, Bethania. 62% of the metro pipeline. Permit YoY −1.52%.
- Davidson County (169,498 residents, 1,242 permits = 7.33 per 1,000) — Lexington (the BBQ capital), Thomasville (the former furniture town), Welcome, Wallburg. Permit YoY +67.84%.
- Stokes County (44,696 residents, 267 permits = 5.97 per 1,000) — Walnut Cove, King, Danbury, Pilot Mountain (the iconic Andy Griffith Mt. Pilot). Permit YoY +53.45%.
- Davie County (43,030 residents, 234 permits = 5.44 per 1,000) — Mocksville, Bermuda Run, Cooleemee, Advance. MHHI $73K (highest in metro), anchored by the Bermuda Run gated golf community. Permit YoY +12.5%.
- Yadkin County (37,280 residents, 115 permits = 3.08 per 1,000) — Yadkinville, Boonville, East Bend. Yadkin Valley wine country.
Construction is 93% single-family / 7% multifamily (4,475 SF / 21 multi-2-4 / 337 multi-5+) — heavy single-family bias. Winston-Salem builds detached homes, not apartments. Permit YoY +20.4% strong sustained acceleration.
What's changing: net IRS migration is +1,512 returns (+0.22% of population) — modest steady. According to IRS Statistics of Income, Winston-Salem absorbs in-state migration from rural NC plus some out-of-state retirees. The migration is twice as strong as Greensboro's +0.07% — Winston-Salem has the better in-migration story even though Greensboro is larger. Owner-occupancy 68.5%, vacancy 10.1%, bachelors 29.6%, median age 40.6.
So what does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow — Winston-Salem is a clean Mid-South cash-flow setup. The cap proxy at 4.62% with a $213K median home value and a $1,232 Fair Market Rent actually pencils — and the unemployment at 3.5% gives you stable tenants. Focus on Forsyth County (Kernersville, Clemmons) and Davidson County (Lexington, Thomasville) — both have the lowest entry points and the strongest Triad commute exposure.
- If you're playing appreciation — Winston-Salem compounded +64.9% over 5 years with sustained YoY growth — top quartile in the queue. The corporate HQ stack (Reynolds American + Truist + Hanesbrands + Krispy Kreme) is durable and the Wake Forest University + Atrium Health Wake Forest Baptist anchor doesn't churn. Buy and hold for the post-tobacco Triad decade.
- If you already own here — hold and add. The +20.4% permit YoY is the bullish supply signal, and the +0.22% net migration is twice as strong as Greensboro's. Add in Forsyth County before the Davidson County acceleration normalizes.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+64.9%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+4.0% YoY
$213,300 median home value
Winston home prices climbed 64.9% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a strong appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change of 4.0% suggests steady appreciation continuing.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Winston-Salem ran **+64.9% over five years** — top quartile, beating the U.S. metros average (+34.3%) by 31 points.
- 02**Recent YoY is +4.04%** — moderate, sustained. Winston-Salem has avoided the Sun Belt cooldown and is still climbing.
- 03Inside North Carolina, Winston-Salem ranks middle of the state — Charlotte and Raleigh have run hotter, but Winston-Salem has compounded steadily without the spike-and-correction pattern.
- 04U.S. metros ran **+34.3%** over the same window. Winston-Salem outperformed by ~31 points — top-tier compounding for a sub-700K Triad metro.
- 05The takeaway: Winston-Salem is the **post-tobacco Triad city quietly compounding** — corporate HQ stack + Wake Forest + healthcare anchor + cheap entry point.
Where the value tier sits — top 5 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davie County | $235,300 | $73,234 | 3.21× | moderate |
| Forsyth County | $227,800 | $65,541 | 3.48× | moderate |
| Davidson County | $200,100 | $62,426 | 3.21× | moderate |
| Stokes County | $186,800 | $60,039 | 3.11× | moderate |
| Yadkin County | $176,400 | $60,321 | 2.92× | affordable |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,232
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
23.0% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 23.0% of their income — 0.3 points below the U.S. average (23.3%) 2.2 points below North Carolina (25.2%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,082 | $13.0K | 20.2% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,232 | $14.8K | 23.0% | comfortable |
| 3 BR | $1,607 | $19.3K | 30.0% | moderate |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
3.5%
BLS LAUS · latest month
Winston's labor market is healthy, with unemployment running at 3.5% — 0.5 points below the U.S. metros average (4.0%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
3.5%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$64,282
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
4,833
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+20.4% year-over-year
7.13 permits per 1,000 residents
Winston pulled 4,833 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 20.4% year-over-year. That works out to 7.13 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
4,475
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
21
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
337
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 5 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Forsyth County leads with 2,975 TTM permits = 7.75 per 1,000** — Winston-Salem proper, Kernersville, Clemmons, Lewisville, Tobaccoville, Rural Hall, Walkertown, Bethania. **62% of the metro pipeline.** Permit YoY −1.52%.
- 02**Davidson County** (Lexington, Thomasville, Welcome, Wallburg) issued **1,242 permits = 7.33 per 1,000** — anchored by the Triad's furniture and BBQ heritage. Permit YoY **+67.84%**.
- 03**Stokes County** (Walnut Cove, King, Danbury, Pilot Mountain) issued **267 permits = 5.97 per 1,000** — northern rural county at the foothills of Pilot Mountain. Permit YoY +53.45%.
- 04**Davie County** (Mocksville, Bermuda Run, Cooleemee, Advance) issued **234 permits = 5.44 per 1,000** — affluent western county with the highest MHHI in the metro ($73K). Permit YoY +12.5%.
- 05**Yadkin County** (Yadkinville, Boonville, East Bend) issued **115 permits = 3.08 per 1,000** — small western county. Permit YoY +16.16%. Winston-Salem overall runs **7.13 permits per 1,000** — 2x the national 3.49.
How to read the map
- 01**Forsyth County (the urban core) is densest at 7.75 per 1,000** — Winston-Salem itself, Kernersville (the eastern suburb), Clemmons (the affluent SW suburb), Lewisville. The Reynolds American + Wake Forest + Truist HQ stack is here.
- 02**Davidson County (south, Lexington/Thomasville) at 7.33 per 1,000** — anchored by the historic Lexington BBQ scene and the former Thomasville furniture industry. The southern Triad spillover.
- 03**Stokes County (north, Pilot Mountain area) at 5.97 per 1,000** — small but growing rural county at the foothills.
- 04**Davie County (west, Mocksville/Bermuda Run) at 5.44 per 1,000** — the affluent western county. Bermuda Run is a gated golf community spillover from Winston-Salem.
- 05**Yadkin County (west, Yadkinville) at 3.08 per 1,000** — slowest, mostly rural agricultural land in the Yadkin Valley wine country.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forsyth County | 383,739 | $65,541 | $227,800 | 2,975 | |
| 2 | Davidson County | 169,498 | $62,426 | $200,100 | 1,242 | +67.8% |
| 3 | Stokes County | 44,696 | $60,039 | $186,800 | 267 | +53.5% |
| 4 | Davie County | 43,030 | $73,234 | $235,300 | 234 | +12.5% |
| 5 | Yadkin County | 37,280 | $60,321 | $176,400 | 115 | +16.2% |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Winston by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Best in 1 of 3 comparable metrics
Winston is closest in size to Deltona, Toledo, Lakeland, Wichita. best in class on Unemployment, and behind on Cap rate proxy.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Winston is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Winston | 0.68M | $64K | $213K | 3.32× | 4.5% | +64.9% | 7.13 | +0.22% | 3.5% |
Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL | 0.68M | $68K | $287K | 4.25× | 4.9% | +52.0% | 8.03 | +1.20% | 5.3% |
Toledo, OH | 0.64M | $64K | $169K | 2.64× | 5.0% | +50.3% | 1.08 | -0.11% | 4.6% |
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL | 0.74M | $64K | $240K | 3.77× | 4.9% | +55.3% | 9.90 | +1.64% | 5.5% |
Wichita, KS | 0.65M | $69K | $188K | 2.73× | 4.6% | +49.6% | 4.67 | +0.01% | 3.7% |
Springfield, MA | 0.69M | $71K | $276K | 3.92× | 4.9% | +51.8% | 1.10 | -0.15% | 5.7% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
+1,512
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
+0.22% of metro population
2,733 from top origin
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Guilford County, NC | 2,733 |
| Forsyth County, NC | 2,051 |
| Davidson County, NC | 889 |
| Mecklenburg County, NC | 595 |
| Randolph County, NC | 512 |
| Davie County, NC | 473 |
Who lives in Winston
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 40.6
- Owner-occupancy
- 68.5%
- Bachelor's+
- 29.6%
Winston mature Midwest metro: Median age 40.6, 68.5% owner-occupancy 29.6% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 41.9% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $64,282
- Median age
- 40.6
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 29.6%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 68.5%
- Vacancy rate
- 10.1%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 41.9%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Jan 2026 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Jan 2026 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026