Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC
The Sun Belt's biggest appreciation winner. Charlotte HPI is +63.8% over 5 years — the highest in the queue, beating Orlando, Phoenix, and Miami. And it's still accelerating at +3.22% YoY. 11 counties (NC + SC), 20,262 permits TTM (7.59 per 1,000), 75% single-family build mix.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
3.98×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs North Carolina
- 3.36×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
moderate
Rent to income
25.2%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs North Carolina
- 25.2%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
4.1%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs North Carolina
- 4.4%
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
steady
Net migration
+0.35%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs North Carolina
- 0.20%+0.15
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%+0.31
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline growing
Permit pipeline
7.59
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs North Carolina
- 7.51+0.08
- vs U.S.
- 3.49+4.11
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
—
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Charlotte
Charlotte is the Sun Belt's biggest appreciation winner. Across 11 counties — 8 in North Carolina plus 3 in South Carolina (York, Lancaster, Chester) — the metro packs 2.67 million residents with a household income of $80,201 (Census ACS) and a median home value of $319,400. The HUD Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom is $1,686. The House Price Index ran +63.8% over five years (FHFA HPI) — the HIGHEST 5-year run of any metro in the queue, beating Orlando (+58.1%), Miami (+55.3%), and Phoenix (+53.8%).
The interesting fact is that Charlotte is also still accelerating while the other Sun Belt growth metros stall. YoY HPI is +3.22%, the third-best recent print in the queue after St Louis (+4.01%) and Minneapolis (+2.88%). When Tampa, Atlanta, and Orlando have all flipped negative or near-zero, Charlotte's bank-and-finance corridor combined with relentless Sun Belt migration keeps the index climbing.
The 11-county geometry spans both Carolinas:
- Mecklenburg County, NC (1.12M pop, $371,200 median home value) leads with 6,439 building permits TTM — Charlotte proper plus Huntersville, Cornelius, Davidson, Pineville.
- York County, SC (283K pop, $322,700 MHV) is the second-most-active builder with 2,639 permits — Rock Hill and Fort Mill are the cross-state SC growth corridor.
- Union County, NC (240K pop) builds 2,487 permits = 10.36 per 1,000 — the highest exurb pace in the metro. Indian Trail, Monroe.
- Gaston, Cabarrus, and Iredell (NC) each crack 1,400-2,300 permits — broad-based growth in every direction.
Charlotte runs 7.59 permits per 1,000 residents — at the NC state median (7.51) and well above the national 3.49. Permit YoY is +3.6% — modest because Charlotte was already running hot. The mix is 75% single-family (15,280 of 20,262), the most SFR-heavy in the queue. The 3 SC border counties (York, Lancaster, Chester) combine for ~3,872 permits = 19% of the metro pipeline — the cross-state spillover is meaningful.
What's changing: net IRS migration is +9,325 returns (IRS SOI) — strong and steady, +0.35% of population. The cap rate proxy sits at 4.1% — deal-by-deal, just below the 4.4% national figure but workable in the right submarkets. 65.8% owner-occupancy, 39% bachelor's-or-higher. Inside North Carolina, Charlotte ranks #9 of 17 for 5-year HPI — middle of the pack despite leading the queue overall.
What does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow: Cross the state line to South Carolina. York and Lancaster SC have the most workable cap proxy in the metro at lower median prices. Rock Hill, Fort Mill, and Lancaster are the underwriting targets.
- If you're playing appreciation: Charlotte is still the biggest run in the queue. The +63.8% 5-year combined with +3.22% YoY says the trend is intact. Bank corridor + Sun Belt migration is a structural double-tailwind.
- If you already own here: Stay. The pipeline is broad, the migration is positive, and the YoY is still climbing. Charlotte is one of the few metros where every metric points the same direction.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+63.8%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+3.2% YoY
$319,400 median home value
Charlotte home prices climbed 63.8% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a strong appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change of 3.2% suggests steady appreciation continuing.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Charlotte's index ran from ~190 in early 2020 to ~311 in Q4 2025. The **+63.8% 5-year change** is the canonical figure (Q4 2020 → Q4 2025) — **the HIGHEST 5-year run of any metro in the queue**, beating Orlando (+58.1%), Miami (+55.3%), and Phoenix (+53.8%).
- 02Charlotte outpaced North Carolina by ~10pp — the smaller NC metros (Asheville, Raleigh-area) ran in similar ranges.
- 03U.S. metros climbed **+34.3%**. Charlotte beat the country by ~30pp — the deepest overshoot in the queue. The bank-and-finance corridor + Sun Belt migration combination is the most powerful in the cohort.
- 04The most recent quarter is **+3.22% YoY** — accelerating, third-best in the queue after St Louis (+4.01%) and Minneapolis (+2.88%). Most other Sun Belt metros have flatlined or flipped negative; Charlotte is still climbing.
- 05Inside North Carolina, Charlotte ranks **#9 of 17** for 5-year HPI — middle. The smaller NC metros (Hickory, Goldsboro, Greenville-NC) ran slightly faster from a lower base.
Where the value tier sits — top 5 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union County | $374,400 | $99,243 | 3.77× | moderate |
| Mecklenburg County | $371,200 | $83,765 | 4.43× | moderate |
| York County | $322,700 | $83,060 | 3.89× | moderate |
| Cabarrus County | $318,600 | $86,084 | 3.70× | moderate |
| Lancaster County | $298,100 | $74,751 | 3.99× | moderate |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,686
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
25.2% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 25.2% of their income — 2.0 points above the U.S. average (23.3%) right at North Carolina (25.2%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,538 | $18.5K | 23.0% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,686 | $20.2K | 25.2% | moderate |
| 3 BR | $2,076 | $24.9K | 31.1% | rent-burdened |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
—
BLS LAUS · latest month
Charlotte's labor market is softening, with unemployment running at —.
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
—
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$80,201
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
20,262
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+3.6% year-over-year
7.59 permits per 1,000 residents
Charlotte pulled 20,262 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a modest expansion 3.6% year-over-year. That works out to 7.59 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
15,280
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
163
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
4,819
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 11 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Mecklenburg County leads with 6,439 permits TTM** — 32% of the metro's 20,262-unit total. Charlotte proper plus Huntersville, Cornelius, Davidson, Pineville.
- 02**York County, SC** (the southern border county) is the second-most-active builder at **2,639 permits** — Rock Hill and Fort Mill are the cross-state SC growth corridor.
- 03Union County (240K pop) at 2,487 permits = 10.36 per 1,000 — the highest exurb pace in the metro. Indian Trail, Monroe.
- 04Gaston (228K), Cabarrus (226K), and Iredell (188K) each crack 1,400-2,300 permits — broad-based suburban growth in every direction.
- 05Charlotte runs **7.59 permits per 1,000 residents** — at the NC state median (7.51) and well above the national 3.49. **Permit YoY is +3.6%** — modest because Charlotte was already running hot last year.
How to read the map
- 01**Union County (east, NC) is the densest at 10.36 per 1,000** — the eastern exurb relief valve. Indian Trail and Monroe are the headline growth corridors.
- 02**York SC** (south, across the state line) at 9.32 per 1,000 — Rock Hill and Fort Mill are the cross-state-line relief valves. The South Carolina counties build harder than most of NC.
- 03Mecklenburg (Charlotte itself) at 5.77 per 1,000 — moderate by metro-core standards but well above the national 3.49.
- 04Cabarrus (north of Mecklenburg, with Concord) at 8.79 per 1,000 — Concord and Kannapolis growing fast.
- 05**The build pattern is multi-state and broad.** Charlotte is one of the few queue metros where the SC side is materially active — York and Lancaster SC together add 3,574 permits, ~18% of the metro.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mecklenburg County | 1,115,403 | $83,765 | $371,200 | 6,439 | |
| 2 | York County | 282,987 | $83,060 | $322,700 | 2,639 | +32.4% |
| 3 | Union County | 240,109 | $99,243 | $374,400 | 2,487 | +19.3% |
| 4 | Gaston County | 228,972 | $65,472 | $235,000 | 2,273 | +35.6% |
| 5 | Cabarrus County | 226,396 | $86,084 | $318,600 | 1,990 | +1.1% |
| 6 | Iredell County | 187,839 | $78,678 | $292,300 | 1,468 | |
| 7 | Rowan County | 147,067 | $63,196 | $216,100 | 858 | +63.1% |
| 8 | Lancaster County | 97,611 | $74,751 | $298,100 | 935 | +16.3% |
| 9 | Lincoln County | 87,933 | $78,490 | $279,500 | 823 | +41.9% |
| 10 | Chester County | 32,171 | $51,216 | $143,800 | 298 | +52.0% |
| 11 | Anson County | 22,200 | $44,245 | $119,300 | 52 | +18.2% |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Charlotte by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Charlotte is closest in size to St. Louis, Orlando, San Antonio, Pittsburgh.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Charlotte is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Charlotte | 2.67M | $80K | $319K | 3.98× | 4.1% | +63.8% | 7.59 | +0.35% | — |
St. Louis, MO-IL | 2.81M | $78K | $232K | 2.97× | 4.1% | +46.7% | 2.21 | -0.12% | 3.5% |
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL | 2.68M | $76K | $339K | 4.48× | 4.5% | +58.1% | 9.39 | +0.40% | 4.4% |
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX | 2.57M | $74K | $259K | 3.48× | 4.3% | +41.5% | 3.93 | +0.45% | 3.7% |
Pittsburgh, PA | 2.37M | $74K | $205K | 2.77× | 5.0% | +42.4% | 2.17 | -0.13% | 3.6% |
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN | 2.25M | $79K | $240K | 3.02× | 4.4% | +57.1% | 3.52 | -0.06% | 3.6% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
+9,325
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
+0.35% of metro population
15,229 from top origin
Charlotte absorbed +9,325 net IRS returns — a steady +0.35% of population. Top out-of-metro origins are intra-Carolina (Mecklenburg and the SC border counties dominate). The metro is a magnet for banking-corridor and Sun Belt households alike.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Mecklenburg County, NC | 15,229 |
| Cabarrus County, NC | 4,201 |
| York County, SC | 3,061 |
| Union County, NC | 3,056 |
| Gaston County, NC | 2,658 |
| Iredell County, NC | 1,778 |
Who lives in Charlotte
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 37.9
- Owner-occupancy
- 65.8%
- Bachelor's+
- 39.0%
Charlotte relatively young Midwest metro: Median age 37.9, 65.8% owner-occupancy 39.0% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 45.0% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $80,201
- Median age
- 37.9
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 39.0%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 65.8%
- Vacancy rate
- 7.9%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 45.0%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026