Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
The Mid-Atlantic accelerator. Baltimore is one of only two major queue metros where HPI is still accelerating: +38.3% over 5 years and +2.81% YoY. P/I 3.84 (moderate), R/I 22.9% (comfortable), and Baltimore city itself has a $219,300 median home value — the cheapest urban core in any 2.5M+ metro.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
3.84×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Maryland
- 3.42×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
22.9%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Maryland
- 22.9%=
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%-0.4
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
tight
Cap rate proxy
3.9%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Maryland
- 3.9%=
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
shrinking
Net migration
-0.17%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Maryland
- 0.04%
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
2.17
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Maryland
- 2.17=
- vs U.S.
- 3.49
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
healthy
Unemployment
3.6%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Maryland
- 3.6%=
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%-0.4
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Baltimore
Baltimore is the Mid-Atlantic accelerator. Across 7 counties — Baltimore County, Anne Arundel, Baltimore city, Howard, Harford, Carroll, and Queen Anne's — the metro packs 2.84 million residents with a household income of $97,300 (Census ACS) and a median home value of $373,300. The HUD Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom is $1,857. The House Price Index ran +38.3% over five years (FHFA HPI) — beating the country by ~4pp — and YoY is +2.81%, the second-best recent print of any major metro in the queue after Minneapolis (+2.88%).
The interesting fact is the county-level dispersion of cost. Within the same metro:
- Baltimore County (851K pop, $330,000 median home value) leads with 1,635 building permits TTM — the donut around Baltimore city, suburban anchor.
- Anne Arundel (588K pop, $450,300 MHV) follows with 1,497 permits — Annapolis, Glen Burnie, the eastern shore corridor.
- Baltimore city (585K pop, $219,300 MHV — the cheapest urban core in any 2.5M+ metro in the queue) permits 1,102 units. The city is rebuilding within its existing footprint, and the price gap with the suburbs is dramatic.
- Howard County (332K pop, $576,700 MHV) is the wealthy DC-adjacent county — Columbia, Ellicott City, Laurel. Builds 580 permits.
- Harford (261K pop), Carroll (173K pop), and Queen Anne's (50K pop) round out the smaller counties.
Baltimore runs 2.17 permits per 1,000 residents — at the Maryland state median but well below the national 3.49. Permit YoY is +24.2%, a solid post-2023 ramp.
What's changing: net IRS migration is −4,752 returns (IRS SOI) — small relative to a 2.84M population (just −0.17%). All top origins are inside Maryland — the metro is shedding to other MD counties (DC suburbs), not interstate flight. The cap rate proxy sits at 3.9% — tight, just below the 4.4% national figure. Unemployment is 3.6%, tighter than the national 4.0%. R/I is 22.9% (comfortable) — Baltimore's high incomes absorb the rents.
What does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow: Baltimore city itself is the play. $219,300 median home value, with the cap proxy improving in the city specifically. Underwrite Baltimore city neighborhoods (Federal Hill, Hampden, Canton) where the rent-price math approaches workable.
- If you're playing appreciation: Baltimore is one of the few accelerating major metros. The +2.81% YoY beats nearly every other queue metro in the Tier 4 cohort. Don't bet against the trend.
- If you already own here: Stay. The +24.2% permit YoY says builders see continued demand. The Howard/Anne Arundel/Harford tech-and-defense corridor anchors income; Baltimore city is the affordable price lever.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+38.3%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+2.8% YoY
$373,300 median home value
Baltimore home prices climbed 38.3% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a modest appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change of 2.8% suggests steady appreciation continuing.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Baltimore's index ran from ~205 in early 2020 to ~284 in Q4 2025. The **+38.3% 5-year change** in the card above is the canonical figure (Q4 2020 → Q4 2025) — beating the country by ~4pp.
- 02The Maryland state line tracks Baltimore closely — Baltimore is ~46% of MD's metro population, and the DC suburbs (Montgomery, Frederick) pull the rest.
- 03U.S. metros climbed **+34.3%** over the same window. Baltimore beat the country modestly — in the middle of the Tier 4 cohort.
- 04The most recent quarter is **+2.81% YoY** — accelerating, second-best in the queue after Minneapolis (+2.88%). Most other major queue metros have flatlined or flipped negative.
- 05Inside Maryland, Baltimore ranks **#4 of 7** for 5-year HPI — middle of the pack. Hagerstown, Salisbury, and Cumberland MD all grew faster from a lower base.
Where the value tier sits — top 5 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Howard County | $576,700 | $146,982 | 3.92× | moderate |
| Anne Arundel County | $450,300 | $120,324 | 3.74× | moderate |
| Queen Anne's County | $441,800 | $113,347 | 3.90× | moderate |
| Carroll County | $406,400 | $115,876 | 3.51× | moderate |
| Harford County | $367,300 | $111,317 | 3.30× | moderate |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,857
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
22.9% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 22.9% of their income — 0.4 points below the U.S. average (23.3%) right at Maryland (22.9%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,511 | $18.1K | 18.6% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,857 | $22.3K | 22.9% | comfortable |
| 3 BR | $2,358 | $28.3K | 29.1% | moderate |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
3.6%
BLS LAUS · latest month
Baltimore's labor market is healthy, with unemployment running at 3.6% — 0.4 points below the U.S. metros average (4.0%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
3.6%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$97,300
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
6,161
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+24.2% year-over-year
2.17 permits per 1,000 residents
Baltimore pulled 6,161 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 24.2% year-over-year. That works out to 2.17 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
3,567
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
21
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
2,573
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 7 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Baltimore County leads with 1,635 permits TTM** — 27% of the metro's 6,161-unit total. The county wraps around Baltimore city and is the suburban anchor.
- 02Anne Arundel (1,497) follows — Annapolis, Glen Burnie, the eastern shore corridor.
- 03**Baltimore city itself permits 1,102** — and at $219,300 median home value, the city is the cheapest urban core in any 2.5M+ metro in the queue.
- 04Harford (869), Howard (580), Queen Anne's (308), and Carroll (170) round out the smaller counties. Howard County has the highest median home value at $576,700 — wealthy DC-adjacent suburbs.
- 05Baltimore runs **2.17 permits per 1,000 residents** — at the Maryland state median but well below the national 3.49. **Permit YoY is +24.2%**, a solid post-2023 ramp.
How to read the map
- 01Baltimore County (the donut around Baltimore city) has 1,635 permits TTM ÷ 851K residents = **1.92 per 1,000** — slightly below the metro average. The bigger suburban county is moderate per capita.
- 02**Queen Anne's County (eastern shore) is the densest at 6.12 per 1,000** — small population (50K) but builder-heavy. The eastern shore exurbs.
- 03Baltimore city has 1,102 permits TTM ÷ 585K residents = **1.88 per 1,000** — moderate. The city is rebuilding within its existing footprint.
- 04Harford and Anne Arundel both run ~3.0 per 1,000 — the moderate inner-suburb pace.
- 05**The build pattern is even.** No single county dominates the way Maricopa dominates Phoenix. Baltimore's growth is broad across the metro footprint, anchored by the city core and the Anne Arundel/Howard tech corridor.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baltimore County | 850,737 | $90,904 | $330,000 | 1,635 | +105.7% |
| 2 | Anne Arundel County | 588,109 | $120,324 | $450,300 | 1,497 | +20.8% |
| 3 | Baltimore city | 584,548 | $59,623 | $219,300 | 1,102 | |
| 4 | Howard County | 332,011 | $146,982 | $576,700 | 580 | |
| 5 | Harford County | 261,059 | $111,317 | $367,300 | 869 | |
| 6 | Carroll County | 173,225 | $115,876 | $406,400 | 170 | +15.7% |
| 7 | Queen Anne's County | 50,316 | $113,347 | $441,800 | 308 | +14.5% |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Baltimore by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Best in 2 of 4 comparable metrics
Baltimore is closest in size to Denver, Portland, San Diego, Sacramento. best in class on Unemployment, Price to income, and behind on Permit pipeline.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Baltimore is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Baltimore | 2.84M | $97K | $373K | 3.84× | 3.9% | +38.3% | 2.17 | -0.17% | 3.6% |
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO | 2.96M | $102K | $570K | 5.57× | 2.9% | +35.6% | 5.27 | +0.21% | 3.6% |
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA | 2.51M | $95K | $527K | 5.57× | 2.8% | +30.6% | 3.31 | +0.05% | 4.9% |
San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA | 3.29M | $102K | $792K | 7.74× | 3.0% | +52.2% | 3.61 | -0.26% | 4.4% |
Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA | 2.39M | $94K | $559K | 5.95× | 3.1% | +32.9% | 4.32 | -0.03% | 4.8% |
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC | 2.67M | $80K | $319K | 3.98× | 4.1% | +63.8% | 7.59 | +0.35% | — |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
-4,752
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
-0.17% of metro population
11,985 from top origin
Baltimore lost −4,752 net IRS returns — small relative to a 2.84M population (just −0.17%). The top out-migration origins are all inside Maryland (Baltimore County, Baltimore city, Prince George's, Anne Arundel, Howard) — the metro is shedding to other MD counties (DC suburbs), not interstate flight.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Baltimore County, MD | 11,985 |
| Baltimore city, MD | 11,017 |
| Prince George's County, MD | 6,390 |
| Anne Arundel County, MD | 5,422 |
| Howard County, MD | 4,637 |
| Montgomery County, MD | 4,313 |
Who lives in Baltimore
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 38.9
- Owner-occupancy
- 66.9%
- Bachelor's+
- 43.3%
Baltimore relatively young Midwest metro: Median age 38.9, 66.9% owner-occupancy 43.3% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 48.6% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $97,300
- Median age
- 38.9
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 43.3%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 66.9%
- Vacancy rate
- 7.3%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 48.6%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026