New Orleans-Metairie, LA
The lowest-growth major metro in the queue. New Orleans ran HPI just +20.9% over 5 years — half the national average. Net IRS migration is −5,339 (-0.42%, the worst in any T4 metro this session). The metro is hemorrhaging residents. But cap rate proxy 4.19% works on a ,000 median, FMR is cheap, and YoY HPI is paradoxically +3.46% (a bounce off the low base). Hurricane risk + insurance crisis + structural population decline.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
3.98×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Louisiana
- 3.37×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
moderate
Rent to income
25.6%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Louisiana
- 21.8%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
4.2%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Louisiana
- 4.5%
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
shrinking
Net migration
-0.42%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Louisiana
- -0.15%
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
2.18
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Louisiana
- 2.76
- vs U.S.
- 3.49
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
4.0%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Louisiana
- 3.9%
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%=
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about New Orleans
New Orleans is the structural-decline metro. Across 8 parishes — Orleans, Jefferson, St. Tammany, plus 5 smaller bayou parishes (Louisiana uses parishes instead of counties) — the metro packs 1.26 million residents with a household income of $62,271 (Census ACS) and a median home value of $248,000. The HUD Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom is $1,331. The House Price Index ran +20.9% over five years (FHFA HPI) — the lowest 5-year HPI of any metro in the queue. New Orleans UNDERSHOT the U.S. metros average of +34.3% by 13 percentage points.
The interesting fact is that New Orleans is bleeding residents. −5,339 net IRS returns, −0.42% of population — the worst negative migration of any T4 metro in the queue. Households are leaving for Houston, Dallas, Atlanta, and the Florida panhandle. Hurricane risk, insurance costs, the post-Katrina population that never returned, and economic stagnation are the structural drivers. Inside Louisiana, NOLA ranks #7 of 9 for 5-year HPI — bottom third. The recent +3.46% YoY is a curiosity, not a turn — coming off the lowest base in the queue, it doesn't undo five years of underperformance.
The 8-parish geometry has one growing place and seven not:
- Orleans Parish (380K pop, $296,400 MHV) is the city. Builds 890 permits TTM = 2.34 per 1,000 — moderate, driven by post-Katrina rebuilding patterns.
- St. Tammany Parish (266K pop, $272,200 MHV) is the only growing parish at 1,080 permits = 4.06 per 1,000 — Mandeville, Slidell, Covington on the north shore of Lake Pontchartrain. Above the storm-surge zone.
- Jefferson Parish (436K pop, $243,500 MHV) is the largest parish but builds only 403 permits = 0.92 per 1,000 — Metairie, Kenner, Westbank. Extraordinarily low.
- St. Charles, St. Bernard, St. John, Plaquemines, St. James combined add fewer than 400 permits — small bayou parishes.
New Orleans runs 2.18 permits per 1,000 residents — well below the national 3.49. Permit YoY is +16.8% — modest acceleration off a low base. The cap rate proxy is 4.19% — borderline workable. P/I 3.98 moderate, R/I 25.6% moderate.
What's changing: net IRS migration is −5,339 returns — the metro is shrinking on a household basis. Unemployment is 4.0%, exactly at national. Owner-occupancy 60.3%, bachelor's-or-higher 33.0%. The labor market is anchored by tourism, the port, oil/gas services, and Tulane/LSU healthcare — none of which are growth industries.
What does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow: Cap proxy 4.19% works on paper but insurance costs are the killer in NOLA. A sub-$200K SFR can carry $5K-$10K/year in insurance and the math collapses. Underwrite insurance specifically before committing.
- If you're playing appreciation: New Orleans is the wrong call. Lowest 5-year HPI in the queue, hemorrhaging migration, structural population decline. If you want LA exposure, Baton Rouge.
- If you already own here: Underwrite the insurance reset every year. The Louisiana property insurance market has been collapsing — premiums up 50-100% in some neighborhoods. The cash-flow math from 5 years ago doesn't work today even on the same property.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+20.9%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+3.5% YoY
$248,000 median home value
New Orleans home prices climbed 20.9% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a modest appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change of 3.5% suggests steady appreciation continuing.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01New Orleans ran **+20.9% over five years** — the **lowest 5-year HPI in the entire queue**, well below the U.S. metros average of +34.3%.
- 02Inside Louisiana, NOLA ranks **#7 of 9** for 5-year HPI — bottom third. Baton Rouge and the smaller LA metros all ran harder.
- 03**Recent YoY is +3.46%** — paradoxically strong, but coming off the lowest base in the queue. The bounce doesn't undo five years of underperformance.
- 04U.S. metros ran **+34.3%** over the same window. New Orleans UNDERSHOT the country by 13pp — the largest underperformance in the queue.
- 05The takeaway: New Orleans is **the structural-decline metro**. Hurricane risk, insurance crisis, population hemorrhage, lowest 5-year HPI in the queue. The recent YoY bounce is a curiosity, not a turn.
Where the value tier sits — top 5 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orleans Parish | $296,400 | $55,339 | 5.36× | stretched |
| Plaquemines Parish | $275,800 | $82,874 | 3.33× | moderate |
| St. Tammany Parish | $272,200 | $79,277 | 3.43× | moderate |
| St. Charles Parish | $256,800 | $82,172 | 3.13× | moderate |
| Jefferson Parish | $243,500 | $65,246 | 3.73× | moderate |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,331
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
25.6% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 25.6% of their income — 2.4 points above the U.S. average (23.3%) 3.9 points above Louisiana (21.8%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,113 | $13.4K | 21.4% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,331 | $16.0K | 25.6% | moderate |
| 3 BR | $1,701 | $20.4K | 32.8% | rent-burdened |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
4.0%
BLS LAUS · latest month
New Orleans's labor market is softening, with unemployment running at 4.0% — 0.0 points above the U.S. metros average (4.0%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
4.0%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$62,271
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
2,752
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+16.8% year-over-year
2.18 permits per 1,000 residents
New Orleans pulled 2,752 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 16.8% year-over-year. That works out to 2.18 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
1,981
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
375
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
396
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 8 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**St. Tammany Parish (north shore — Mandeville, Slidell, Covington) leads with 1,080 permits TTM = 4.06 per 1,000** — the only growing part of the metro. The north shore catches the families fleeing storm risk on the south side.
- 02**Orleans Parish** (New Orleans proper) builds **890 permits = 2.34 per 1,000** — driven by post-Katrina rebuilding patterns and pockets of multifamily.
- 03**Jefferson Parish** (Metairie, Kenner, Westbank) builds only **403 permits = 0.92 per 1,000** — extraordinarily low for the metro's most populous parish (436K).
- 04St. Charles, St. Bernard, St. John combined add fewer than 300 permits — small bayou parishes barely building.
- 05New Orleans runs **2.18 permits per 1,000 residents** — well below the national 3.49. **Permit YoY is +16.8%** — modest acceleration off a low base. The 72% single-family mix is typical Sun Belt-adjacent.
How to read the map
- 01**St. Tammany Parish (the north shore) is densest at 4.06 per 1,000** — Mandeville, Slidell, Covington. The only growing pocket. Land north of Lake Pontchartrain is above the storm-surge risk that haunts the south side.
- 02Orleans Parish (the city) at **2.34 per 1,000** — moderate. The post-Katrina rebuild has moved past peak.
- 03Plaquemines Parish (south, downriver from NOLA) at **2.02 per 1,000** — small but nominally building.
- 04Jefferson Parish (the largest parish) at only **0.92 per 1,000** — extraordinarily low. The most populous and slowest-building parish in the metro.
- 05**The pattern is binary: north shore vs everything else.** St. Tammany is the only place builders see growth. Insurance, storm risk, and the collapsing tax base on the south side push all activity north of Lake Pontchartrain.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jefferson Parish | 436,171 | $65,246 | $243,500 | 403 | |
| 2 | Orleans Parish | 380,408 | $55,339 | $296,400 | 890 | +16.5% |
| 3 | St. Tammany Parish | 266,168 | $79,277 | $272,200 | 1,080 | +25.6% |
| 4 | St. Charles Parish | 52,191 | $82,172 | $256,800 | 92 | +33.3% |
| 5 | St. Bernard Parish | 44,038 | $57,638 | $192,100 | 115 | +27.8% |
| 6 | St. John the Baptist Parish | 41,986 | $67,418 | $184,000 | 61 | +24.5% |
| 7 | Plaquemines Parish | 23,305 | $82,874 | $275,800 | 47 | |
| 8 | St. James Parish | 20,090 | $64,536 | $197,800 | 64 | +23.1% |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to New Orleans by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
New Orleans is closest in size to Memphis, Louisville/Jefferson County, Buffalo, Birmingham.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. New Orleans is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★New Orleans | 1.26M | $62K | $248K | 3.98× | 4.2% | +20.9% | 2.18 | -0.42% | 4.0% |
Memphis, TN-MS-AR | 1.34M | $65K | $228K | 3.52× | 4.4% | +41.4% | 2.48 | -0.18% | 4.0% |
Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN | 1.28M | $72K | $236K | 3.30× | 4.2% | +45.5% | 4.78 | -0.02% | 3.1% |
Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY | 1.16M | $71K | $210K | 2.97× | 5.0% | +57.7% | 1.06 | -0.18% | 4.0% |
Birmingham-Hoover, AL | 1.11M | $70K | $226K | 3.25× | 4.4% | +44.7% | 3.82 | -0.08% | 2.2% |
Oklahoma City, OK | 1.43M | $70K | $215K | 3.05× | 4.5% | +45.7% | 5.90 | +0.18% | 3.6% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
-5,339
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
-0.42% of metro population
5,287 from top origin
New Orleans lost −5,339 net IRS returns — −0.42% of population, the worst in any T4 metro in the queue. Households are leaving for Houston, Dallas, Atlanta, and the Florida panhandle. Hurricane risk, insurance costs, and economic stagnation are the structural drivers.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Jefferson Parish, LA | 5,287 |
| Orleans Parish, LA | 5,167 |
| St. Tammany Parish, LA | 1,183 |
| East Baton Rouge Parish, LA | 930 |
| St. Charles Parish, LA | 773 |
| Tangipahoa Parish, LA | 743 |
Who lives in New Orleans
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 38.9
- Owner-occupancy
- 60.3%
- Bachelor's+
- 33.0%
New Orleans relatively young Midwest metro: Median age 38.9, 60.3% owner-occupancy 33.0% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 50.4% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $62,271
- Median age
- 38.9
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 33.0%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 60.3%
- Vacancy rate
- 14.3%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 50.4%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026