Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
**Arkansas state capital — affordable, healthy labor market, accelerating permits.** Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway runs HPI **+43.9% over 5yr** with **YoY +3.22%** sustained moderate. **P/I 3.05 affordable, R/I 21.1% comfortable, Cap proxy 4.50% workable**. MHV $199K cheap. FMR 2BR $1,147. 6 counties (Pulaski + Faulkner + Saline + Lonoke + Grant + Perry). Permits 3.86/1k normal but **YoY +52.9% strong acceleration**. 88/12 SF/multi heavily SF. Migration +648 (+0.09% steady, weak — AR not a magnet state). **Unemployment 3.9% healthy**. Bachelors 32.9%. Anchored by Arkansas state government, **Dillard's HQ** (department store chain), **Stephens Inc** (one of largest off-Wall Street investment banks), **Windstream HQ**, **Acxiom** (data analytics), UAMS (medical center), Arkansas Children's Hospital, Heifer International HQ, Clinton Presidential Center, Little Rock Air Force Base (Jacksonville).
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
3.05×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Arkansas
- 3.18×-0.13
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×-0.38
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
21.1%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Arkansas
- 21.1%=
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%-2.2
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
4.5%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Arkansas
- 4.5%=
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%+0.1
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
steady
Net migration
+0.09%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Arkansas
- 0.09%=
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%+0.05
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
3.86
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Arkansas
- 3.86=
- vs U.S.
- 3.49+0.37
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
healthy
Unemployment
3.9%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%-0.1
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Little Rock
Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR is home to 749,290 residents in 6 counties — Pulaski, Faulkner, Saline, Lonoke, Grant, and Perry. The metro pulled 2,892 building permits over the trailing twelve months according to the Census Bureau Building Permits Survey — 3.86 per 1,000 residents, slightly above the national pace of 3.49. The cap rate proxy sits at 4.50% — workable — and the price-to-income ratio is 3.05 affordable, one of the cheapest of any T5 metro in the queue. Median household income is $65,309 and the median home value is $199K. The BLS LAUS unemployment rate is 3.9% — healthy.
The structural story is the steady Mid-South capital metro. Little Rock is the seat of Arkansas state government, the headquarters of multiple Fortune 1000 companies, and the regional hub for healthcare, finance, and the Mississippi Delta agricultural belt. The corporate roster:
- Dillard's HQ — the department store chain (founded in 1938 in Nashville, AR; HQ in Little Rock since 1964).
- Stephens Inc. — one of the largest off-Wall Street investment banks in the U.S., founded by Witt Stephens in 1933.
- Windstream Holdings HQ — telecom and broadband.
- Acxiom HQ in Conway (Faulkner County) — data analytics, since acquired by IPG.
- Heifer International HQ — global humanitarian development organization.
- Arkansas Children's Hospital — the only pediatric medical center in Arkansas.
- University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences (UAMS) — the state's only health sciences university.
- Arkansas State Capitol and the entire state government workforce.
- Clinton Presidential Library and Center in downtown Little Rock.
- Little Rock Air Force Base in Jacksonville (Pulaski County) — home of the C-130 Hercules training mission for the entire U.S. Air Force.
The county distribution shows the metro structure:
- Pulaski County (398,322 residents, 1,660 permits TTM = 4.17 per 1,000) — Little Rock and North Little Rock, Sherwood, Jacksonville (LRAFB), Maumelle, Cammack Village. 57% of the metro pipeline. Permit YoY +86.1%. Median home value $200K.
- Saline County (123,988 residents, 487 permits = 3.93 per 1,000) — Benton, Bryant, Haskell. The southwestern bedroom community along I-30. Median home value $212K, MHHI $77K (the highest in the metro). Permit YoY +31.98%.
- Faulkner County (124,611 residents, 474 permits = 3.80 per 1,000) — Conway, Vilonia, Greenbrier. Anchored by the University of Central Arkansas and Hendrix College. Permit YoY −38.6% (sharp pullback after a 2022-2023 building binge).
- Lonoke County (74,292 residents, 237 permits = 3.19 per 1,000) — Cabot, Lonoke, Ward. Northeast bedroom county. Permit YoY +50%.
- Grant County (18,022 residents, 32 permits) — Sheridan. Small rural southern county.
- Perry County (10,055 residents, 2 permits) — Perryville. Smallest county on the western fringe.
Construction is 88% single-family / 12% multifamily (2,545 SF / 142 multi-2-4 / 205 multi-5+). Heavy single-family bias — Little Rock is a build-your-own-house market. Permit YoY is +52.9% — strong sustained acceleration on a moderate base.
What's changing: net IRS migration is +648 returns (+0.09% of population) — modestly positive but weak. Arkansas overall is not a population-magnet state — most of the 0.09% is internal Arkansas migration from smaller counties into the Pulaski/Faulkner/Saline core. According to IRS Statistics of Income, Little Rock's structural migration profile is "stable with slight positive drift" — not a Sun Belt wave. Owner-occupancy 63.6%, vacancy 10.1% (moderate), bachelors 32.9%, median age 37.4.
So what does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow — Little Rock is one of the cleanest cash-flow setups in the queue. The cap proxy at 4.50% with a $199K median home value, $1,147 Fair Market Rent, low vacancy, and a healthy 3.9% unemployment rate is the textbook Mid-South stable cash-flow profile. Focus on Pulaski County (Sherwood, Maumelle) and Saline County (Benton, Bryant) — both offer stable government/corporate employment and detached single-family inventory at $200-250K.
- If you're playing appreciation — Little Rock is a modest sustained compounder, not a moonshot. The +43.9% over 5 years tells you what to expect — roughly 8-10% per year through compounding. The migration is the limit — without major in-migration the appreciation cap is structural, not behavioral. Hold for cash flow + slow appreciation.
- If you already own here — hold and add. The +52.9% permit YoY says builders see what you see. The unemployment is healthy, the cap rate works, the entry price is low. Watch the Stephens family (Stephens Inc., Acxiom) for any signal of corporate divestment — they're the largest single non-government employer hub in the metro.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+43.9%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+3.2% YoY
$199,300 median home value
Little Rock home prices climbed 43.9% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a steady appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change of 3.2% suggests steady appreciation continuing.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Little Rock ran **+43.9% over five years** — solid Mid-South territory, beating the U.S. metros average (+34.3%) by 10 points.
- 02**Recent YoY is +3.22%** — moderate, sustained. Little Rock has avoided the Sun Belt cooldown and is still moving slowly upward.
- 03Inside Arkansas, Little Rock ranks middle of the state — Northwest Arkansas (Bentonville/Fayetteville) ran much hotter due to the Walmart/Tyson/JB Hunt anchor.
- 04U.S. metros ran **+34.3%** over the same window. Little Rock outperformed by ~10 points without ever spiking explosively.
- 05The takeaway: Little Rock is the **steady Mid-South capital metro** — government payroll smoothing the cycle, no boom and no bust. The cap rate works.
Where the value tier sits — top 5 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saline County | $211,700 | $76,534 | 2.77× | affordable |
| Faulkner County | $211,300 | $65,071 | 3.25× | moderate |
| Pulaski County | $199,600 | $60,385 | 3.31× | moderate |
| Lonoke County | $184,100 | $71,449 | 2.58× | affordable |
| Grant County | $154,500 | $72,512 | 2.13× | affordable |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,147
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
21.1% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 21.1% of their income — 2.2 points below the U.S. average (23.3%) right at Arkansas (21.1%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $989 | $11.9K | 18.2% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,147 | $13.8K | 21.1% | comfortable |
| 3 BR | $1,540 | $18.5K | 28.3% | moderate |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
3.9%
BLS LAUS · latest month
Little Rock's labor market is healthy, with unemployment running at 3.9% — 0.1 points below the U.S. metros average (4.0%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
3.9%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$65,309
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
2,892
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+52.9% year-over-year
3.86 permits per 1,000 residents
Little Rock pulled 2,892 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 52.9% year-over-year. That works out to 3.86 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
2,545
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
142
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
205
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 6 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Pulaski County leads with 1,660 TTM permits = 4.17 per 1,000** — Little Rock and North Little Rock proper, Sherwood, Jacksonville (LRAFB area), Maumelle. **57% of the metro pipeline.** Permit YoY **+86.1%**.
- 02**Saline County** (Benton, Bryant, Haskell) issued **487 permits = 3.93 per 1,000** — the southwestern bedroom community absorbing Little Rock professionals. Permit YoY +31.98%.
- 03**Faulkner County** (Conway, Vilonia, Greenbrier) issued **474 permits = 3.80 per 1,000** — anchored by the University of Central Arkansas. Permit YoY −38.6% (sharp pullback after a building binge).
- 04**Lonoke County** (Cabot, Lonoke, Ward) issued **237 permits = 3.19 per 1,000** — northeast bedroom county. Permit YoY +50.0%.
- 05**Grant and Perry Counties** are small rural counties (32 + 2 permits) on the metro fringe. Little Rock runs **3.86 permits per 1,000 residents** overall — slightly above the national 3.49.
How to read the map
- 01**Pulaski County (the urban core) is densest at 4.17 per 1,000** — Little Rock proper, North Little Rock, Sherwood, Jacksonville (Little Rock AFB), Maumelle.
- 02**Saline County (southwest, Benton/Bryant) at 3.93 per 1,000** — the bedroom community absorbing Little Rock professionals along I-30 toward Hot Springs.
- 03**Faulkner County (north, Conway) at 3.80 per 1,000** — University of Central Arkansas town, Toad Suck Daze festival country.
- 04**Lonoke County (east, Cabot) at 3.19 per 1,000** — bedroom community along US-67/167 toward Jacksonville and Sherwood.
- 05**Grant and Perry Counties** at the southern and western fringes are small and rural — minimal building activity. The metro builds at 3.86/1k overall, with Pulaski County hosting **57% of all permits**.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pulaski County | 398,322 | $60,385 | $199,600 | 1,660 | +86.1% |
| 2 | Faulkner County | 124,611 | $65,071 | $211,300 | 474 | |
| 3 | Saline County | 123,988 | $76,534 | $211,700 | 487 | +32.0% |
| 4 | Lonoke County | 74,292 | $71,449 | $184,100 | 237 | +50.0% |
| 5 | Grant County | 18,022 | $72,512 | $154,500 | 32 | +28.0% |
| 6 | Perry County | 10,055 | $60,078 | $129,300 | 2 | — |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Little Rock by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Little Rock is closest in size to Lakeland, Greensboro, Winston, Dayton.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Little Rock is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Little Rock | 0.75M | $65K | $199K | 3.05× | 4.5% | +43.9% | 3.86 | +0.09% | 3.9% |
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL | 0.74M | $64K | $240K | 3.77× | 4.9% | +55.3% | 9.90 | +1.64% | 5.5% |
Greensboro-High Point, NC | 0.78M | $63K | $208K | 3.29× | 5.0% | +63.9% | 5.12 | +0.07% | 3.9% |
Winston-Salem, NC | 0.68M | $64K | $213K | 3.32× | 4.5% | +64.9% | 7.13 | +0.22% | 3.5% |
Dayton-Kettering, OH | 0.81M | $70K | $186K | 2.67× | 5.3% | +57.0% | 2.64 | -0.03% | 4.1% |
Columbia, SC | 0.83M | $66K | $213K | 3.23× | 4.7% | +60.4% | 0.82 | +0.07% | 4.7% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
+648
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
+0.09% of metro population
3,278 from top origin
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Pulaski County, AR | 3,278 |
| Saline County, AR | 1,423 |
| Faulkner County, AR | 1,166 |
| Lonoke County, AR | 929 |
| Garland County, AR | 648 |
| Jefferson County, AR | 635 |
Who lives in Little Rock
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 37.4
- Owner-occupancy
- 63.6%
- Bachelor's+
- 32.9%
Little Rock relatively young Midwest metro: Median age 37.4, 63.6% owner-occupancy 32.9% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 41.8% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $65,309
- Median age
- 37.4
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 32.9%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 63.6%
- Vacancy rate
- 10.1%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 41.8%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Jan 2026 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Jan 2026 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026