Mortgage Rates Hit 6.49% as April CPI Reaccelerates to 3.8%

The Data

6.49%.

That's the 30-year conforming mortgage rate on Tuesday, per the HousingWire Mortgage Rates Center — up 5 basis points week-over-week and 10 over two weeks. The 30-year FHA rate moved to 6.19% (+3 bps); jumbo held at 6.29%.

The driver landed Tuesday morning. April CPI printed 3.8% year-over-year, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics and FRED CPIAUCSL — the highest annual reading in nearly three years, up from 3.3% in March. Headline CPI rose 0.6% month-over-month, slower than the 0.9% pace in February and March but well above the Fed's comfort zone. Core CPI climbed to 2.8% from 2.6%. Energy contributed more than 40% of the all-items increase; shelter added 0.6%.

The Context

Sam Williamson, senior economist at First American, told HousingWire that the 10-year Treasury is "keeping a floor under mortgage rates" — bond markets are pricing fewer Fed cuts than six weeks ago. The mortgage-Treasury spread compression that drove rates to 6.30% in mid-April has reversed.

REI Prime tracked the geopolitical leg on April 17, when an Iran ceasefire briefly pulled the 10-year lower. That tailwind unwound as Strait of Hormuz tensions re-escalated and energy reasserted itself in the April print.

On a $400,000 loan, the move from 6.30% to 6.49% adds roughly $50/month — enough to push a borderline DSCR deal in tighter-cap metros like Columbus below a lender's 1.20 threshold.

Also Moving

• FHA stress hits record concentration. ICE's May Mortgage Monitor reports FHA loans now account for 55% of seriously past-due mortgages — a record — with 164,000 more FHA borrowers 90+ days delinquent than a year ago (HousingWire).
• Mortgage credit tightens. The MBA Mortgage Credit Availability Index slipped 0.4% to 107.9 in April, breaking three months of easing; conventional −0.6%, jumbo −1.0% (HousingWire).
• Trump presses Congress on ROAD Act. Section 901 would bar firms owning 350+ single-family rentals from buying more; the Senate cleared the bill 89-10 in March (HousingWire).
• Farmers wins 1.5% California hike on 915,000 policies. Regulators approved the increase — far below the 6.9% Farmers requested — under the state's new Sustainable Insurance Strategy (NY Post).

What to Watch

Three observable signals over the next 30 days:

1. June 11 — May CPI release. Whether shelter continues its 0.6% monthly pace will steer bond-market pricing of Fed cuts.
2. June 17-18 — FOMC meeting. Consensus is a hold at 4.25–4.50%; futures price a 12% probability of a cut after Tuesday's print, down from 38% a week ago.
3. Early June — May MCAI release. Whether April's credit tightening extends or reverses signals how lenders are pricing the inflation reacceleration.

Data sources: FRED (MORTGAGE30US, CPIAUCSL, CPILFESL, CUSR0000SAH1), BLS, HousingWire, ICE, MBA.