Columbus, OH
The build-it metro of the Midwest. Columbus pulled 16,118 building permits over the trailing twelve months — double the national pace — with construction concentrated in Franklin County. Net IRS migration ran slightly negative at -1,699 on intra-metro churn and modest outflows to other Ohio markets, but Intel's $20B Licking County fab remains the forward demand anchor.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
3.44×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Ohio
- 2.67×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
21.5%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Ohio
- 21.2%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%-1.8
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
4.1%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Ohio
- 5.0%
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
shrinking
Net migration
-0.08%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Ohio
- -0.03%
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
7.54
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Ohio
- 1.63+5.92
- vs U.S.
- 3.49+4.06
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
healthy
Unemployment
3.6%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Ohio
- 3.6%=
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%-0.4
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Columbus
Columbus is the build-it metro of the Midwest — and it's not even close. The metro spans 10 Ohio counties and 2.1 million people, and it pulled 16,118 building permits in the trailing twelve months per the Census Building Permits Survey, up 63.7% year-over-year. That's 7.54 permits per 1,000 residents — more than five times Ohio's state median (1.38) and more than double the national metros average (3.47). Wages sit at $79,847 median household income, the FHFA House Price Index is up 54.6% over the last five years per the Federal Housing Finance Agency, and BLS unemployment runs at 3.6% (Bureau of Labor Statistics LAUS). The Intel chip plant in Licking County, Honda's EV factory expansion, and Ohio State's gravitational pull on jobs and capital are all showing up in the same place: the construction crane count.
The story inside the metro is unusual for the Midwest: the urban core is the engine, not the suburbs.
- Franklin County (Columbus proper) holds 1.32M residents and 10,746 permits TTM — that's 67% of the metro's entire pipeline despite only 62% of the population. Permits there are up 63.7% year-over-year. Median household income runs $73,795 against a $265,700 median home value.
- Licking County, where Intel's $20B fab is going up, holds 178K residents and only 152 permits TTM (+5.56% YoY) — the housing build hasn't caught up to the industrial build yet, which is a forward-supply story for 2026 and 2027.
- Delaware County is the high-income suburb: 216K residents, $130,088 median household income (the highest in Ohio), median home value $419,500, and a measured 2,044 permits.
- Fairfield County logged the most explosive year: +249.4% YoY permits off a small base.
- The mix tilts hard to apartments: 5+ unit multifamily makes up 62% of the metro's permit total (10,047 of 16,118), single-family is just 33%.
Compare that to Indianapolis, where Marion County is 46% of the population but only 11% of the permits — Indianapolis is a suburban-builder story. Columbus is the opposite: a downtown-builder story.
What's changing on top of that: net migration into the metro was actually slightly negative — -1,699 returns in the most recent vintage from the IRS Statistics of Income, or -0.08% of metro population. That isn't a crisis. The gross flows show a high-churn metro (roughly 46K moving in, 48K moving out) where inflows from intra-metro counties (Franklin, Delaware, Fairfield, Licking — suburb-to-city and city-to-suburb churn) and from Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) at 1,117 returns are nearly offset by modest out-migration to other Ohio markets. Columbus is basically flat on net migration, not shrinking. And the forward-demand case doesn't rest on IRS flows anyway — it rests on the Intel $20B fab, Honda's EV expansion, and Ohio State's job gravity.
So what does an investor do with all of this?
- If you're hunting cash flow, this isn't your metro right now. The cap rate proxy is 4.1% — the tightest in the peer set (Indianapolis sits at 4.7%, Kansas City at 4.0%, Cincinnati at 4.4%). All that new supply is compressing yields. Indianapolis is the better cash-flow play in the Midwest peer group.
- If you're playing appreciation, Franklin County is the bet. The urban core is the construction engine, the Intel and Honda investments are 5–10 year stories, and migration is real. The downside is the multifamily supply wave: 10,047 5+ unit permits TTM is a lot of apartments arriving in 2026 and 2027, which will pressure rent growth.
- If you already own here, hold. The fundamentals — wages, jobs, and the Intel anchor — all support continued appreciation. Just don't underwrite aggressive rent hikes against the multifamily pipeline.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+54.6%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+1.3% YoY
$274,300 median home value
Columbus home prices climbed 54.6% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a steady appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change has cooled to 1.3%, signaling the post-2022 surge has unwound into steady-state appreciation.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Columbus (teal) and the Ohio metros average tracked nearly identically over the 5-year window — both grew exactly +63.9%, well above the U.S. metros pop-weighted average of +56.9%.
- 02The Ohio metros line sits structurally lower (lower starting HPI) but moves in lock-step with Columbus because Columbus dominates the state's pop-weighted denominator.
- 03All three lines show the same 2021–2022 vertical run-up, the early-2023 plateau, and the steady upward grade from late 2023 onward — no metro-specific divergence.
- 04Ohio is OUTPERFORMING the national average by ~7 percentage points over 5 years, despite starting from a lower base. The Midwest cost-of-living tailwind is real.
Where the value tier sits — top 5 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delaware County | $419,500 | $130,088 | 3.22× | moderate |
| Union County | $306,600 | $109,506 | 2.80× | affordable |
| Fairfield County | $272,200 | $87,069 | 3.13× | moderate |
| Franklin County | $265,700 | $73,795 | 3.60× | moderate |
| Licking County | $250,700 | $81,033 | 3.09× | moderate |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,430
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
21.5% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 21.5% of their income — 1.8 points below the U.S. average (23.3%) 0.3 points above Ohio (21.2%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,194 | $14.3K | 17.9% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,430 | $17.2K | 21.5% | comfortable |
| 3 BR | $1,715 | $20.6K | 25.8% | moderate |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
3.6%
BLS LAUS · latest month
Columbus's labor market is healthy, with unemployment running at 3.6% — 0.4 points below the U.S. metros average (4.0%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
3.6%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$79,847
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
16,118
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+63.7% year-over-year
7.54 permits per 1,000 residents
Columbus pulled 16,118 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 63.7% year-over-year. That works out to 7.54 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
5,414
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
657
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
10,047
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 10 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01Franklin County (10,746 permits, +63.7% YoY) accounts for 67% of the metro's entire pipeline — concentration is far heavier than Indianapolis, where the lead county has only 38% of the pipeline.
- 02Delaware County (2,044, +6.2% YoY) is a distant second — high-income suburb (median HHI $130K) but a measured permit pace, not a builder boom.
- 03Fairfield County's +249.4% YoY is the explosive number, but off a tiny base (1,366 permits) — one or two large multifamily approvals can swing it.
- 04Licking County is the surprise: only 152 permits TTM despite hosting Intel's $20B chip fab. The housing build hasn't caught up to the industrial build yet — that's a 2026–2027 forward-supply story.
- 05The pattern is unambiguous: this is an urban-core build, not a suburban build. Compare to Indianapolis, where the suburban Hamilton County leads — opposite story.
How to read the map
- 01Darker teal = more permits. Franklin County (Columbus proper, in the center) is by far the darkest — the map makes the urban-core dominance visually obvious.
- 02The suburban ring counties (Delaware to the north, Fairfield southeast, Licking east) are mid-shade, indicating moderate permit activity but nowhere near Franklin's pace.
- 03The outer counties (Hocking, Perry, Morrow, Pickaway) are nearly white — small populations and minimal new construction. These are not in the metro's growth path.
- 04Visually, Columbus is a single-center metro: one bright dot surrounded by a faint ring. Indianapolis on the same map would show a darker suburban halo — a different geographic pattern entirely.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Franklin County | 1,318,149 | $73,795 | $265,700 | 10,746 | +63.7% |
| 2 | Delaware County | 216,074 | $130,088 | $419,500 | 2,044 | +6.2% |
| 3 | Licking County | 178,844 | $81,033 | $250,700 | 152 | +5.6% |
| 4 | Fairfield County | 159,371 | $87,069 | $272,200 | 1,366 | +249.4% |
| 5 | Union County | 63,411 | $109,506 | $306,600 | 956 | |
| 6 | Pickaway County | 58,809 | $72,927 | $235,700 | 292 | +18.7% |
| 7 | Madison County | 43,961 | $83,229 | $231,400 | 416 | +31.2% |
| 8 | Perry County | 35,451 | $64,737 | $178,300 | 36 | +20.0% |
| 9 | Morrow County | 35,049 | $71,047 | $200,800 | 94 | |
| 10 | Hocking County | 28,104 | $61,366 | $172,300 | 16 | +100.0% |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Columbus by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Columbus is closest in size to Kansas City, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Nashville.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Columbus is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Columbus | 2.14M | $80K | $274K | 3.44× | 4.1% | +54.6% | 7.54 | -0.08% | 3.6% |
Kansas City | 2.19M | $82K | $265K | 3.24× | 4.0% | +51.8% | 4.11 | +0.00% | 3.5% |
Indianapolis | 2.11M | $77K | $244K | 3.17× | 4.7% | +53.0% | 5.91 | +0.02% | 2.5% |
Cincinnati | 2.25M | $79K | $240K | 3.02× | 4.4% | +57.1% | 3.52 | -0.06% | 3.6% |
Nashville | 1.99M | $82K | $377K | 4.57× | 3.6% | +58.3% | 9.56 | +0.31% | 2.9% |
Las Vegas | 2.27M | $74K | $401K | 5.43× | 3.4% | +52.3% | 5.87 | +0.45% | 5.2% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
-1,699
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
-0.08% of metro population
12,562 from top origin
Columbus is essentially flat on net migration — a slight −1,699 return outflow (−0.08% of population) on a metro this size is intra-Ohio churn, not a structural exodus. Roughly 46K came in and 48K went out. The Intel fab and Honda EV plant carry the forward-demand story regardless.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Franklin County, OH | 12,562 |
| Delaware County, OH | 3,493 |
| Fairfield County, OH | 3,141 |
| Licking County, OH | 2,333 |
| Cuyahoga County, OH | 1,117 |
| Pickaway County, OH | 846 |
Who lives in Columbus
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 36.6
- Owner-occupancy
- 61.3%
- Bachelor's+
- 39.4%
Columbus relatively young Midwest metro: Median age 36.6, 61.3% owner-occupancy 39.4% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 41.8% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $79,847
- Median age
- 36.6
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 39.4%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 61.3%
- Vacancy rate
- 6.6%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 41.8%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026