U.S. Population Grew 0.5% in 2025; 50 Largest Counties Lost 637K

The Data

637,634. That's the net domestic migration loss across the 50 U.S. counties with populations exceeding one million in 2025, per NAHB's analysis of Census Vintage 2025 county estimates.

The U.S. population grew just 0.5% in 2025 — roughly half the prior year's pace — as net international migration fell from 2.7 million to 1.3 million (Census Vintage 2025). Of the 2,066 counties that grew in 2024, nearly 80% saw growth slow or reverse. In large metro core areas, 86% of counties decelerated.

The flow went down-market. Counties with populations between 50,000 and 999,999 absorbed a combined +533,766 net domestic migration pattern gain. Medium counties (15,000-49,999) added 95,095. Even sub-15,000 counties posted a small net gain of 8,773.

The Context

The construction data tracks the demographic data in lockstep. NAHB's Q4 Home Building Geography Index shows single-family construction has weakened across most geographies except the least-dense markets, while multifamily is shifting toward smaller, lower-density areas. Small metro core and outlying counties recorded a net domestic migration gain of 327,598 — and building permits are following the residents.

This is the concrete version of the thesis HousingWire published this week: post-WWII demand tailwinds — population growth, falling interest rates, labor-force expansion — are reversing simultaneously. The Census print quantifies one leg of that reversal at the county grain. The 86% deceleration figure in large metro cores also overlaps with the 89-of-300 metros showing year-over-year price declines that REI Prime covered last week.

Also Moving

• Q1 2026 apartment deliveries fell to 75,200 units — the lowest quarterly total since early 2022, down from a 100,000+/quarter pace during the 2023-2024 boom (CRE Daily). Phoenix and Dallas each topped 5,000 multifamily deliveries.
• Manhattan Q1 multifamily investment sales jumped 246% YoY to $1.07 billion across 44 deals, lifting total Manhattan CRE sales to $3.7B — the best quarter since 2021 (Avison Young via GlobeSt).
• DC Attorney General Brian Schwalb sued Mid-America Apartment Communities on April 27, alleging a $385 processing fee and a $350 roommate-release fee against DC's $54 statutory cap at a 269-unit property (Multifamily Dive).

What to Watch

Three observable signals over the next 30 days:

1. May 22 — Census Bureau releases Vintage 2025 city and town population estimates. The print extends the county-grain data to the sub-county level, where the migration-flow signal should sharpen.
2. Q1 NAHB HBGI release in mid-May. The index's market-share metric for low-density counties is the leading indicator on whether construction continues to track the population flow into smaller markets.
3. Whether the 86% deceleration figure in large metro cores softens or holds in next year's Vintage 2026 estimates. A reversal would signal the international-migration drop was a one-year shock; a continued reading confirms the regime-shift framing.

Data sources: Census Vintage 2025, NAHB HBGI, HousingWire, CRE Daily, Multifamily Dive.