Housing Inventory Is Back to 2019 in 11 States. Everywhere Else Is Still Tight.

The Data

The national months-of-supply for existing homes reached 4.1 months in March 2026, according to FRED data sourced from the National Association of Realtors. That's up from 3.8 in February and 3.5 in December 2025.

The state-level picture is not uniform. ResiClub Analytics reports that 11 states now have active inventory at or above pre-pandemic March 2019 levels:

• Sun Belt — Arizona, Florida, Tennessee, Texas
• Mountain West — Colorado, Idaho, Oregon, Utah, Washington
• Plains — Nebraska, Oklahoma

Nationally, active listings remain 13.6% below March 2019, per the same report. In ResiClub's words, Midwest and Northeast resale markets "remain tight."

The Context

The bifurcation tracks regional supply. The 11 states that rebuilt their inventory overlap heavily with the metros posting year-over-year price declines: 89 of the top 300 markets — 30% of them — showed a falling price reading in the March 2025 to March 2026 window. Austin, Tampa, Cape Coral, and Nashville are on that list. We looked at nine of these metros for rent pressure last week.

The Midwest and Northeast are a different story. Bill McBride at Calculated Risk noted in his mid-March overview that "most homeowners have substantial equity and low mortgage rates" — a structural reason supply stays constrained in markets that never overbuilt: the rate-locked owners simply don't need to sell.

The NAR March 2026 release framed the topline as a 3.6% month-over-month decline in existing-home sales, to 3.98 million at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, alongside a record-high March median price of $408,800 — the 33rd consecutive monthly record. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun attributed the weakness to "lower consumer confidence and softer job growth."

Also Moving

• New-home inventory is elevated. Months-of-supply in the new-home market hit 9.7 in January 2026 (FRED MSACSR), a multi-year high as builders hold completed units against softer demand.
• NAR revised its 2026 forecast down. Existing-home sales now projected to rise 4% this year, new-home sales projected flat — both cuts from prior forecasts (NAR).
• Insurance access is tightening on multifamily. Per Marsh McLennan's 2026 Real Estate Risk report, mainstream insurers are pulling back; coverage increasingly depends on documented valuations, safety practices, and deferred-maintenance records (Multifamily Dive).

What to Watch

Three observable signals over the next 30 days:

1. Whether any additional states cross the 2019 inventory threshold in the April prints — or whether any of the current 11 fall back.
2. The count of the 300-market YoY decline list. ResiClub's base case is that the count decreases in coming months as inventory growth decelerates.
3. May 11 — NAR's April existing-home sales release. Whether national months-of-supply holds above 4.0 matters. That threshold is the traditional dividing line between seller's-market and balanced conditions.

Data sources: FRED (HOSSUPUSM673N, EXHOSLUSM495S, MSACSR), NAR Existing-Home Sales, ResiClub Analytics, Calculated Risk.