Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
The military supply-constrained Sun Belt cousin. Hampton Roads ran HPI +50.3% over 5 years (Sun Belt-tier) and is still climbing at +4.20% YoY. Permits TTM are only 3,833 (2.13/1k, the lowest pace of any Tier 4 metro in the queue) — supply is locked by military bases, water, and Virginia's independent-city geography. 86% single-family mix, the highest in the queue. Cap rate proxy 4.20% borderline workable.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
3.95×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Virginia
- 3.86×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
moderate
Rent to income
25.5%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Virginia
- 22.9%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
4.2%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Virginia
- 4.0%+0.2
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
shrinking
Net migration
-0.06%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Virginia
- -0.06%=
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
2.13
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Virginia
- 5.90
- vs U.S.
- 3.49
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
—
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Virginia
- 3.3%
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Virginia Beach
Virginia Beach is the military supply-constrained Sun Belt cousin. Across 19 jurisdictions — 15 in Virginia plus 4 in North Carolina — Hampton Roads packs 1.8 million residents with a household income of $80,533 (Census ACS) and a median home value of $318,000. The HUD Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom is $1,713. The House Price Index ran +50.3% over five years (FHFA HPI) — Sun Belt-tier growth, just behind Phoenix (+53.8%) and Miami (+55.3%).
The interesting fact is that Hampton Roads runs the lowest permit pace of any Tier 4 metro in the queue. 2.13 building permits per 1,000 residents — well below the national 3.49 and far below the Sun Belt average. Yet the YoY HPI is +4.20%, in the Pittsburgh/Cincinnati/Kansas City tier. The supply constraints are structural: military bases (Naval Station Norfolk, Joint Expeditionary Base, Langley AFB, Newport News Shipbuilding) plus water plus Virginia's independent-city geography lock the buildable footprint. 86% single-family mix is the highest in the queue — multifamily barely happens here.
Virginia uses a unique geography of independent cities (which Census treats like counties) plus a few traditional counties. The pipeline:
- Chesapeake city (249K pop, $359,100 MHV) leads with 836 permits TTM — the largest land area in the metro.
- Suffolk city (95K pop, $329,600 MHV) builds 571 permits — affluent southwestern growth pocket.
- Currituck County, NC (29K pop) builds 337 permits = 11.78 per 1,000 — cross-state spillover.
- Virginia Beach city (458K pop, $366,300 MHV) only builds 299 permits = 0.65 per 1,000 — supply-locked by beach geography and military bases.
- Norfolk, Hampton, Newport News, Portsmouth combined add fewer than 600 permits — the urban core barely builds.
Hampton Roads runs 2.13 permits per 1,000 residents — well below the national 3.49 and the Virginia state median (~3.0). Permit YoY is +15% — modest acceleration. The cycle is constrained by structure, not demand.
What's changing: net IRS migration is −1,144 returns (IRS SOI) — essentially flat, −0.06% of population. The military rotation churn cancels itself out. The cap rate proxy is 4.20% — borderline workable, just below the 4.4% national. Owner-occupancy 63.1%, bachelor's-or-higher 35.1%. Inside Virginia, Hampton Roads is #9 of 11 for 5-year HPI — bottom third within VA, but the absolute number is still strong.
What does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow: Norfolk and Portsmouth have the lowest entry points ($229K-$272K) with workable rent ratios. The military rental demand is structural — the bases don't move. Skip Virginia Beach city and the Williamsburg suburbs (too expensive).
- If you're playing appreciation: Chesapeake and Suffolk are the growth pockets — plus the NC border counties (Currituck, Camden) for cheaper entry. The metro-wide HPI is climbing steadily and the supply constraint is structural, so the price floor is sticky.
- If you already own here: Hold and lean in. Supply is constrained by geography and federal land use, the labor market is anchored by the military, and the price index is still climbing. Hampton Roads is the military supply-locked Sun Belt outpost — slower than the rocket metros but more durable.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+50.3%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+4.2% YoY
$318,000 median home value
Virginia Beach home prices climbed 50.3% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a steady appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change of 4.2% suggests steady appreciation continuing.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Hampton Roads ran **+50.3% over five years** — Sun Belt-tier growth, just behind Phoenix (+53.8%) and Miami (+55.3%). The metro is in the high-growth bucket without being in the high-permit bucket.
- 02Inside Virginia, Hampton Roads ranks **#9 of 11** for 5-year HPI — bottom third of its own state. Northern Virginia (DC suburbs) and Richmond ran harder.
- 03**Recent YoY is +4.20%** — strong, in the Pittsburgh/Cincinnati/Kansas City tier of recent acceleration. The cycle is not over here.
- 04U.S. metros ran **+34.3%** over the same window. Hampton Roads outperformed by ~16pp — quietly one of the better major-metro runs.
- 05The takeaway: Hampton Roads is **military-anchored, supply-constrained, and quietly accelerating**. The combination is unusual: Sun Belt growth without Sun Belt building.
Where the value tier sits — top 5 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James City County | $419,200 | $107,046 | 3.92× | moderate |
| York County | $411,200 | $108,326 | 3.80× | moderate |
| Poquoson city | $403,000 | $120,919 | 3.33× | moderate |
| Williamsburg city | $393,200 | $70,206 | 5.60× | stretched |
| Virginia Beach city | $366,300 | $90,685 | 4.04× | moderate |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,713
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
25.5% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 25.5% of their income — 2.3 points above the U.S. average (23.3%) 2.6 points above Virginia (22.9%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,512 | $18.1K | 22.5% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,713 | $20.6K | 25.5% | moderate |
| 3 BR | $2,376 | $28.5K | 35.4% | rent-burdened |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
—
BLS LAUS · latest month
Virginia Beach's labor market is softening, with unemployment running at —.
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
—
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$80,533
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
3,833
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+15.0% year-over-year
2.13 permits per 1,000 residents
Virginia Beach pulled 3,833 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 15.0% year-over-year. That works out to 2.13 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
3,295
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
72
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
466
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 20 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Chesapeake city leads with 836 permits TTM** — the largest land area in the metro and the most room to build. 22% of the pipeline.
- 02**Suffolk city** builds **571 permits** — south of the metro core, the affluent growth pocket along Route 58.
- 03**Currituck County, NC** (just south of the state line) builds **337 permits = 11.78 per 1,000** — the densest exurb pace, the cross-state spillover.
- 04Virginia Beach city itself only builds **299 permits = 0.65 per 1,000** — extremely low for a city of 458K. Beach geography and military bases limit raw land.
- 05Hampton Roads runs **2.13 permits per 1,000 residents** — the **lowest pace of any Tier 4 metro in the queue**. The 86% single-family mix is the highest. **Permit YoY is +15%** — modest acceleration. Supply constraints are structural, not cyclical.
How to read the map
- 01**Currituck County, NC (south, across the state line) is densest at 11.78 per 1,000** — Moyock, Grandy, exurban growth.
- 02Camden County, NC (south) at **14.51 per 1,000** — small county but high pace, the second NC growth pocket.
- 03Suffolk city (southwest of Norfolk) at **6.02 per 1,000** — meaningful pace plus large land area = 571 absolute permits.
- 04Chesapeake city at **3.35 per 1,000** — moderate but largest absolute volume.
- 05**The metro is supply-locked.** Norfolk, Hampton, Newport News, Virginia Beach city — the urban core jurisdictions all run under 2 per 1,000 because of military bases, water, and Virginia's independent-city geography. The growth has migrated to the NC border counties and the Suffolk southwest.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virginia Beach city | 457,900 | $90,685 | $366,300 | 299 | |
| 2 | Chesapeake city | 249,377 | $94,189 | $359,100 | 836 | +79.0% |
| 3 | Norfolk city | 236,973 | $64,017 | $271,900 | 149 | |
| 4 | Newport News city | 185,118 | $66,718 | $243,300 | 164 | |
| 5 | Hampton city | 137,217 | $67,758 | $234,100 | 78 | |
| 6 | Portsmouth city | 97,384 | $58,972 | $229,400 | 163 | |
| 7 | Suffolk city | 94,856 | $90,089 | $329,600 | 571 | |
| 8 | James City County | 78,818 | $107,046 | $419,200 | 233 | |
| 9 | York County | 70,238 | $108,326 | $411,200 | 198 | +30.3% |
| 10 | Isle of Wight County | 38,898 | $96,118 | $333,600 | 275 | +22.8% |
| 11 | Gloucester County | 38,875 | $83,689 | $289,200 | 128 | +82.9% |
| 12 | Currituck County | 28,616 | $91,548 | $351,200 | 337 | |
| 13 | Southampton County | 18,003 | $68,465 | $208,800 | 51 | +0.0% |
| 14 | Williamsburg city | 15,486 | $70,206 | $393,200 | 22 | +120.0% |
| 15 | Poquoson city | 12,479 | $120,919 | $403,000 | 100 | +1.0% |
| 16 | Camden County | 10,547 | $87,781 | $289,800 | 153 | +73.9% |
| 17 | Gates County | 10,509 | $61,612 | $163,900 | 11 | |
| 18 | Mathews County | 8,537 | $75,487 | $348,800 | 31 | +55.0% |
| 19 | Franklin city | 8,194 | $65,125 | $227,200 | — | — |
| 20 | Surry County | 6,546 | $71,458 | $235,200 | 34 |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Virginia Beach by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Virginia Beach is closest in size to Providence, Nashville, Jacksonville, Milwaukee.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Virginia Beach is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Virginia Beach | 1.80M | $81K | $318K | 3.95× | 4.2% | +50.3% | 2.13 | -0.06% | — |
Providence-Warwick, RI-MA | 1.67M | $86K | $386K | 4.51× | 5.2% | +61.0% | 1.55 | -0.02% | 4.7% |
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN | 1.99M | $82K | $377K | 4.57× | 3.6% | +58.3% | 9.56 | +0.31% | 2.9% |
Jacksonville, FL | 1.61M | $77K | $309K | 4.01× | 4.2% | +54.9% | 7.89 | +0.68% | 4.6% |
Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI | 1.57M | $76K | $284K | 3.71× | 3.7% | +55.3% | 2.01 | -0.14% | — |
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN | 2.11M | $77K | $244K | 3.17× | 4.7% | +53.0% | 5.91 | +0.02% | 2.5% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
-1,144
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
-0.06% of metro population
7,347 from top origin
Hampton Roads lost −1,144 net IRS returns — −0.06% of population, essentially flat. The marginal outflow is dwarfed by the price action; in a supply-constrained metro, even small inflows push prices when there's nothing to build on.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Virginia Beach city, VA | 7,347 |
| Norfolk city, VA | 5,936 |
| Chesapeake city, VA | 5,405 |
| Newport News city, VA | 4,061 |
| Hampton city, VA | 3,593 |
| Portsmouth city, VA | 2,741 |
Who lives in Virginia Beach
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 37.2
- Owner-occupancy
- 63.1%
- Bachelor's+
- 35.1%
Virginia Beach relatively young Midwest metro: Median age 37.2, 63.1% owner-occupancy 35.1% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 50.0% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $80,533
- Median age
- 37.2
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 35.1%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 63.1%
- Vacancy rate
- 7.6%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 50.0%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026