Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
The appreciation sleeper. Philadelphia compounded the federal House Price Index +42.3% over five years — outpacing Dallas, tracking New York — on a cap rate proxy of 4.3% that still pencils. Permits at only 2.19 per 1,000 residents. Net IRS migration: −5,750. Yield works, supply constrained.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
3.66×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Pennsylvania
- 3.03×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
24.3%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Pennsylvania
- 22.4%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
4.3%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Pennsylvania
- 4.9%
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
shrinking
Net migration
-0.09%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Pennsylvania
- 0.09%
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
2.19
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Pennsylvania
- 2.17+0.02
- vs U.S.
- 3.49
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
4.0%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Pennsylvania
- 3.8%
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%=
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Philadelphia
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington is the appreciation sleeper — the metro that investors keep overlooking while it quietly outperforms half the Sun Belt. The MSA spans 11 counties across four states (Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, and a sliver of Maryland) and 6.23 million people. The Freddie Mac House Price Index compounded +42.3% over the last five years — a run that beats Dallas (+31.6%), beats Atlanta (+38.4%), and tracks New York (+45.7%). Year-over-year HPI is +2.63% — still compounding, no sign flip. Median household income sits at $89,273 (Census ACS), the cap rate proxy is 4.3% — deal-by-deal territory, right at the national line — and the permit pipeline runs at 2.19 per 1,000 residents, well below the national 3.47. The yield works. The supply is constrained. The price is still moving.
The county construction story is unusual: the city is the builder county. Philadelphia County leads at 3,538 permits in the trailing twelve months (Census Building Permits Survey), +51.5% year-over-year — by far the fastest acceleration in the metro. Montgomery County (the Main Line suburbs) follows at 2,365 permits, +46.4% YoY. Together the two largest Pennsylvania counties account for 43% of the metro pipeline and both are surging.
- New Castle County, Delaware is the wildcard: 1,223 permits, +217.7% YoY — a triple from a low base. Delaware's tax structure (no sales tax, low property tax relative to NJ/PA) is pulling development across the state line.
- Burlington County, NJ runs steady at 1,613 permits but is −11.6% YoY — the New Jersey side provides ballast, not acceleration.
- Cecil County, Maryland collapsed from 530 to 143 permits (−73.0% YoY) — the Maryland exurban fringe is retreating from the metro's growth footprint, echoing Loudoun County in Washington DC.
Net migration is −5,750 returns, −0.09% of the population per the IRS Statistics of Income — essentially flat. BLS unemployment runs at 4.0% (BLS LAUS), matching the national rate exactly. HUD Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom is $1,810. Rent-burdened share: 48.0%, one of the highest in the country.
So what does an investor do with all of this?
- If you're hunting cash flow, Philadelphia is workable. The 4.3% cap rate proxy is the highest of any top-10 metro except Houston (4.5%) and Chicago (4.6%). FMR at $1,810 against a $327K median home value gives you room to underwrite.
- If you're playing appreciation, the five-year curve says yes. +42.3% with no sign flip, steady compounding, and an undersupplied pipeline at 2.19/1k. The 2022 correction that hit the Sun Belt barely registered here.
- If you already own here, lean into Philadelphia County and Montgomery County — those two are where the permit acceleration and the appreciation curve converge. The New Jersey side is stable but flat. Delaware is worth watching for tax-arbitrage plays.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+42.3%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+2.6% YoY
$326,700 median home value
Philadelphia home prices climbed 42.3% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a steady appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change of 2.6% suggests steady appreciation continuing.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Philadelphia (solid blue) compounded +42.3% from 2021-Q1 to 2026-Q1 — outpacing every peer except Miami and Phoenix. The U.S. metros average ran 24.7% over the same window. Philly is not the stagnant Rust Belt metro the narrative suggests.
- 02The line slopes steadily upward with no plateau or sign flip. Year-over-year is +2.63% — still positive, still compounding, no correction in sight. This is the only top-10 peer set metro with both 40%+ appreciation AND a cap rate proxy above 4%.
- 03The Pennsylvania state series (dashed) tracks close to but slightly below the focal line — meaning Philadelphia is pulling up the state average, not riding it.
- 04The 2022-Q3 to 2023-Q1 dip that crushed Sun Belt metros barely registers here. Philadelphia did not overshoot during the pandemic surge and therefore did not correct. The compounding has been linear, not parabolic.
- 05For an investor, the read is: this is a compound-and-hold metro, not a flip metro. The 4.3% cap rate proxy means deals pencil on day one — and the appreciation curve gives you a tailwind that most Northeast metros lost.
Where the value tier sits — top 5 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester County | $461,800 | $123,041 | 3.75× | moderate |
| Bucks County | $421,700 | $111,951 | 3.77× | moderate |
| Montgomery County | $409,900 | $111,521 | 3.68× | moderate |
| New Castle County | $329,800 | $89,901 | 3.67× | moderate |
| Burlington County | $326,700 | $105,271 | 3.10× | moderate |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,810
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
24.3% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 24.3% of their income — 1.1 points above the U.S. average (23.3%) 1.9 points above Pennsylvania (22.4%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,520 | $18.2K | 20.4% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,810 | $21.7K | 24.3% | comfortable |
| 3 BR | $2,170 | $26.0K | 29.2% | moderate |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
4.0%
BLS LAUS · latest month
Philadelphia's labor market is softening, with unemployment running at 4.0% — 0.0 points above the U.S. metros average (4.0%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
4.0%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$89,273
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
13,661
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+40.4% year-over-year
2.19 permits per 1,000 residents
Philadelphia pulled 13,661 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 40.4% year-over-year. That works out to 2.19 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
7,838
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
780
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
5,043
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 11 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01Philadelphia County leads at 3,538 permits TTM, +51.5% year-over-year. Unlike Dallas or DC, the city of Philadelphia itself is where the construction is — not the suburbs.
- 02Montgomery County (the Main Line) follows at 2,365 permits, +46.4% YoY. The two largest Pennsylvania counties together account for 43% of the metro pipeline and both are accelerating.
- 03New Castle County, Delaware is the wildcard: 1,223 permits, +217.7% YoY — a triple from a low base, driven by Delaware's tax-advantaged entry point (no sales tax, low property tax relative to NJ/PA).
- 04The New Jersey side (Burlington 1,613, Gloucester 1,419, Camden 1,003) provides steady mid-tier supply but no acceleration — all three are within ±12% YoY. NJ permitting is mature, not surging.
- 05Cecil County, Maryland collapsed from 530 to 143 permits (−73.0% YoY) — the Maryland exurban fringe is pulling back hard, echoing the Loudoun County pattern in Washington DC.
How to read the map
- 01Four states light up the map: southeast Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, northern Delaware, and the northeast corner of Maryland. Philadelphia is one of three top-10 metros crossing four jurisdictions (with Washington DC and — almost — New York).
- 02The darkest cell is Philadelphia County itself — the urban core at 3,538 permits. Montgomery County (northwest of the city) is the second-darkest. The construction gravity pulls toward the city center, not away from it.
- 03New Castle County, Delaware (due south) is conspicuously dark for its size — 1,223 permits on 571K residents. Delaware's tax structure is pulling development across the state line.
- 04The New Jersey counties (Burlington, Gloucester, Camden) form a mid-tone band on the eastern shore of the Delaware River. Steady supply, not surging — the NJ side is the ballast, not the engine.
- 05Cecil County, Maryland (the tiny cell at bottom-left) is the lightest of the 11 — only 143 permits after a 73% YoY collapse. The exurban Maryland fringe is retreating from the metro's growth footprint.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philadelphia County | 1,593,208 | $60,698 | $232,400 | 3,538 | +51.5% |
| 2 | Montgomery County | 856,399 | $111,521 | $409,900 | 2,365 | +46.4% |
| 3 | Bucks County | 645,163 | $111,951 | $421,700 | 640 | +2.6% |
| 4 | Delaware County | 575,312 | $88,576 | $302,400 | 244 | |
| 5 | New Castle County | 570,567 | $89,901 | $329,800 | 1,223 | +217.7% |
| 6 | Chester County | 536,474 | $123,041 | $461,800 | 1,393 | +14.4% |
| 7 | Camden County | 522,581 | $86,384 | $262,200 | 1,003 | +3.2% |
| 8 | Burlington County | 461,853 | $105,271 | $326,700 | 1,613 | |
| 9 | Gloucester County | 302,621 | $102,807 | $283,500 | 1,419 | +0.3% |
| 10 | Cecil County | 103,876 | $91,146 | $311,800 | 143 | |
| 11 | Salem County | 64,840 | $78,412 | $223,000 | 80 | +2.6% |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Philadelphia by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Philadelphia is closest in size to Atlanta, Houston, Miami, Phoenix.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Philadelphia is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Philadelphia | 6.23M | $89K | $327K | 3.66× | 4.3% | +42.3% | 2.19 | -0.09% | 4.0% |
Atlanta | 6.09M | $86K | $335K | 3.88× | 4.2% | +38.4% | 5.23 | +0.11% | 3.3% |
Houston | 7.14M | $80K | $275K | 3.42× | 4.5% | +38.8% | 8.89 | +0.23% | 4.2% |
Miami | 6.12M | $73K | $406K | 5.52× | 4.7% | +55.3% | 3.63 | -0.16% | 3.5% |
Phoenix | 4.86M | $85K | $401K | 4.74× | 3.6% | +53.8% | 7.99 | +0.31% | 3.5% |
Dallas | 7.67M | $87K | $330K | 3.79× | 4.6% | +31.6% | 8.43 | +0.39% | 3.6% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
-5,750
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
-0.09% of metro population
21,898 from top origin
Philadelphia is essentially flat on net migration — a −5,750 return outflow (−0.09% of population) on a 6.2M metro is barely a rounding error. The +42.3% five-year HPI compounded WITHOUT a population tailwind, which is what makes this metro the appreciation sleeper.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Philadelphia County, PA | 21,898 |
| Montgomery County, PA | 10,906 |
| Delaware County, PA | 8,418 |
| Camden County, NJ | 6,853 |
| Bucks County, PA | 6,737 |
| Chester County, PA | 5,317 |
Who lives in Philadelphia
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 39.1
- Owner-occupancy
- 67.0%
- Bachelor's+
- 41.5%
Philadelphia relatively young Midwest metro: Median age 39.1, 67.0% owner-occupancy 41.5% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 48.0% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $89,273
- Median age
- 39.1
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 41.5%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 67.0%
- Vacancy rate
- 6.2%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 48.0%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q1 2026 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026