Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
The Rust Belt's cash flow case study. Youngstown spans 3 counties across 2 states and 540,328 residents, with a $134,600 median home value producing a 5.6% cap rate proxy — the highest in the Ohio metro set. Net IRS migration of -132 is essentially flat, and just 360 building permits signal a supply-constrained market where prices compound quietly.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
affordable
Price to income
2.43×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Ohio
- 2.67×-0.24
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×-1.00
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
21.1%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Ohio
- 21.2%-0.1
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%-2.2
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
5.6%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Ohio
- 5.0%+0.7
- vs U.S.
- 4.3%+1.3
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
shrinking
Net migration
-0.02%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Ohio
- -0.03%+0.01
- vs U.S.
- 0.03%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
0.67
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Ohio
- 1.63
- vs U.S.
- 3.52
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
4.9%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Ohio
- 4.3%
- vs U.S.
- 3.9%
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Youngstown
Youngstown is the Rust Belt metro where cash flow math still works on a median-priced house — and almost nobody is building. The metro stretches across 3 counties in 2 states (Ohio and Pennsylvania) with 540,328 residents, and the FHFA House Price Index is up 63.2% over five years per the Federal Housing Finance Agency, outpacing both the Ohio metro average (55%) and the U.S. metro average (46%). That appreciation sits on top of a $134,600 median home value — producing a 5.6% cap rate proxy, one of the highest in Ohio. Median household income runs $55,357, BLS unemployment is 4.9% (Bureau of Labor Statistics LAUS), and the metro pulled just 360 building permits in the trailing twelve months per the Census Building Permits Survey — 0.67 per 1,000 residents, less than one-fifth the national rate. That is one of the tightest supply pipelines in the country.
The construction activity splits across two states and three distinct profiles.
- Mahoning County (Youngstown) holds 227,979 residents and 170 permits TTM — 47% of the metro total, up +31.8% YoY. Median home value sits at $141,100, and the county anchors the metro's healthcare and university infrastructure.
- Trumbull County (Warren) is the cooling story: 108 permits, down -5.3% YoY on a population of 202K. Median home value at $128,100 is the lowest in the metro — the most affordable county in an already-affordable metro, but builders are pulling back.
- Mercer County (PA) is the surge: 82 permits, up +54.7% YoY on just 111K residents. Median home value of $153,600 is the highest in the metro, and the fastest permit growth signals where Pennsylvania-side demand is concentrating.
- The permit mix is almost entirely single-family: 340 of 360 permits (94%) are single-family, with just 10 units in the 5+ multifamily category. Youngstown builds houses, not apartments.
What's changing: net migration landed at -132 returns in the most recent IRS Statistics of Income vintage — essentially flat at -0.02% of metro population. The top origin counties are all internal or near-neighbor: Trumbull and Mahoning (intra-metro churn), then Columbiana County, OH (594 returns) and Allegheny County, PA (330 returns) — Pittsburgh families trading high prices for Youngstown's affordability. Unemployment at 4.9% runs above the Ohio state median (4.3%) and the national median (3.9%), reflecting the Rust Belt's ongoing economic transition. HUD Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom is just $973/month (HUD FMR) — among the lowest in the peer set.
So what does an investor do with this?
- If you're hunting cash flow, Youngstown delivers. The 5.6% cap rate proxy leads most Ohio metros. A $134,600 median home value with $973/month FMR pencils on day one for buy-and-hold investors — especially in Trumbull County, where $128,100 median values and stable rental demand keep the math clean.
- If you're playing appreciation, the trend is real but the runway depends on supply. 63.2% over five years is strong for a shrinking market, and the supply pipeline (0.67 per 1,000) is so tight that prices compound through scarcity alone. Don't expect a hockey stick — expect steady, quiet gains.
- If you already own here, hold and optimize. The migration story is flat, not bleeding — this is not a market in freefall. The vacancy rate of 9.0% is manageable for a legacy Rust Belt metro, and Mahoning County's +31.8% permit surge signals where the next wave of demand is landing. Focus on tenant retention and property condition — Youngstown rewards operators, not speculators.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+63.2%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+6.6% YoY
$134,600 median home value
Youngstown home prices climbed 63.2% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a strong appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change of 6.6% is still running hot.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Youngstown's HPI gained **63.2%** over five years — outpacing both the Ohio metro average (55%) and the U.S. metro average (46%).
- 02The teal line starts well below state and national benchmarks but climbs faster from mid-2021 onward — a classic catch-up curve from a low base.
- 03A brief plateau in late 2022 through early 2023 mirrors the rate-shock pause visible in all three curves, but Youngstown recovered faster than the national average.
- 04Year-over-year HPI growth is **6.6%** — above the national pace and consistent with the tight supply signal from just 360 TTM permits.
- 05Q4 2025 closed at **279.07** vs. Ohio's **294.22** — the gap is narrowing, and the trajectory favors continued convergence.
Where the value tier sits — top 3 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mercer County | $153,600 | $60,614 | 2.53× | affordable |
| Mahoning County | $141,100 | $55,576 | 2.54× | affordable |
| Trumbull County | $128,100 | $55,088 | 2.33× | affordable |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$973
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
21.1% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 21.1% of their income — 2.2 points below the U.S. average (23.3%) right at Ohio (21.2%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $771 | $9.3K | 16.7% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $973 | $11.7K | 21.1% | comfortable |
| 3 BR | $1,270 | $15.2K | 27.5% | moderate |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
4.9%
BLS LAUS · latest month
Youngstown's labor market is softening, with unemployment running at 4.9% — 1.0 points above the U.S. metros average (3.9%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
4.9%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$55,357
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
360
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+25.9% year-over-year
0.67 permits per 1,000 residents
Youngstown pulled 360 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 25.9% year-over-year. That works out to 0.67 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.52.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
340
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
10
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
10
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 3 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01Mahoning County leads with **170 permits** (47% of metro total) on a population of 228K — the Youngstown side of the metro.
- 02Trumbull County (Warren) pulled **108 permits** but is the only county declining: **-5.3% YoY**. The Warren side is building less, not more.
- 03Mercer County (PA) surged **+54.7% YoY** to **82 permits** — the fastest-growing county by percentage, anchored by the Pennsylvania side of the metro.
- 04The permit mix is overwhelmingly single-family: **340 of 360 permits (94%)** are single-family. Almost no multifamily is being built.
How to read the map
- 01Mahoning County (darkest shade) anchors the western side with **170 permits** — the Youngstown urban core.
- 02Trumbull County (medium shade) sits north with **108 permits** — the Warren side, where the -5.3% YoY decline signals a cooler construction market.
- 03Mercer County (lightest shade) sits east across the Pennsylvania border with **82 permits** — small population but the fastest permit growth in the metro at +54.7% YoY.
- 04The OH-PA state border bisects the metro, with two Ohio counties west and one Pennsylvania county east — a classic cross-state Rust Belt corridor.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mahoning County | 227,979 | $55,576 | $141,100 | 170 | +31.8% |
| 2 | Trumbull County | 201,749 | $55,088 | $128,100 | 108 | |
| 3 | Mercer County | 110,600 | $60,614 | $153,600 | 82 | +54.7% |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Youngstown by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Best in 2 of 5 comparable metrics
Youngstown is closest in size to Fayetteville, Jackson, Scranton, Lafayette. best in class on Cap rate proxy, Price to income, and behind on Unemployment, Permit pipeline.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Youngstown is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Youngstown | 0.54M | $55K | $135K | 2.43× | 5.6% | +63.2% | 0.67 | -0.02% | 4.9% |
Fayetteville, NC | 0.52M | $59K | $186K | 3.16× | 5.2% | +62.6% | 6.98 | +0.11% | 4.3% |
Jackson, MS | 0.59M | $60K | $189K | 3.12× | 5.3% | +37.3% | 2.31 | -0.13% | 2.8% |
Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA | 0.57M | $64K | $177K | 2.77× | 5.5% | +59.8% | 1.08 | +0.19% | 4.3% |
Lafayette, LA | 0.48M | $61K | $207K | 3.40× | 3.8% | +24.9% | 4.68 | -0.02% | 3.6% |
Springfield, MO | 0.48M | $61K | $213K | 3.47× | 4.0% | +60.3% | 3.77 | +0.09% | 2.9% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
-132
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
-0.02% of metro population
1,188 from top origin
Youngstown lost a net -132 tax returns in the most recent IRS vintage — essentially flat at -0.02% of metro population. The top origin counties are all internal or adjacent (Trumbull, Mahoning, Columbiana), with Pittsburgh's Allegheny County contributing 330 returns on the inbound side.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Trumbull County, OH | 1,188 |
| Mahoning County, OH | 1,091 |
| Columbiana County, OH | 594 |
| Portage County, OH | 371 |
| Mercer County, PA | 334 |
| Allegheny County, PA | 330 |
Who lives in Youngstown
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 43.6
- Owner-occupancy
- 70.9%
- Bachelor's+
- 23.5%
Youngstown mature Midwest metro: Median age 43.6, 70.9% owner-occupancy 23.5% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 42.7% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $55,357
- Median age
- 43.6
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 23.5%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 70.9%
- Vacancy rate
- 9.0%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 42.7%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Jan 2026 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Jan 2026 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 10, 2026