Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
The rust belt sleeper that woke up. Cincinnati ran HPI +57.1% over 5 years (hidden Sun Belt territory, ahead of Phoenix and Miami) AND is still accelerating at +4.53% YoY (one of the strongest recent prints in the queue). 16 counties across OH, KY, and IN. Median home value ,200 — cheap. Cap rate proxy 4.39% — workable. Permits up +56.7% YoY. The narrative has not caught up with the data.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
3.02×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Ohio
- 2.67×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×-0.41
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
20.4%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Ohio
- 21.2%-0.8
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%-2.8
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
4.4%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Ohio
- 5.0%
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%+0.0
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
shrinking
Net migration
-0.06%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Ohio
- -0.03%
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
3.52
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Ohio
- 1.63+1.90
- vs U.S.
- 3.49+0.04
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
healthy
Unemployment
3.6%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Ohio
- 3.6%=
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%-0.4
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Cincinnati
Cincinnati is the rust belt sleeper that woke up. Across 16 counties — 8 in Ohio plus 5 in Kentucky and 3 in Indiana — the metro packs 2.25 million residents with a household income of $79,490 (Census ACS) and a median home value of $240,200 — among the cheapest in the queue. The HUD Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom is $1,353. The House Price Index ran +57.1% over five years (FHFA HPI) — hidden Sun Belt territory, ahead of Phoenix (+53.8%), Miami (+55.3%), and almost everything except Charlotte (+63.8%).
The interesting fact is that Cincinnati is still accelerating. YoY HPI is +4.53%, one of the strongest recent prints in the queue, in a tier with Pittsburgh (+4.74%) and St. Louis (+4.01%). All three are quietly outperforming the Sun Belt narrative. Inside Ohio, Cincinnati ranks #4 of 14 by 5-year HPI — top quartile of its own state. The cap rate proxy is 4.39% — solid, just above the 4.4% national figure. Price-to-income is 3.02 — borderline affordable, rent-to-income 20.4% — comfortable.
The 16-county geometry is a tri-state mosaic. The growth is concentrated in 5 counties:
- Hamilton County, OH (828K pop, $225,700 MHV) is Cincinnati proper. 1,484 permits TTM = 1.79 per 1,000 — supply-constrained urban core.
- Clermont County, OH (209K pop, $245,600 MHV) leads with 1,654 permits = 7.92 per 1,000 — Milford, Loveland, the eastern suburban-exurban band.
- Warren County, OH (243K pop, $319,700 MHV) builds 1,410 permits = 5.80 per 1,000 — Mason, Lebanon. The most expensive county in the metro and the northern affluent exurb.
- Boone County, KY (136K pop, $253,200 MHV) builds 1,049 permits = 7.71 per 1,000 — Florence, Burlington, Hebron. Northern Kentucky punches well above its weight.
- Butler County, OH (388K pop, $243,000 MHV) builds 984 permits — Hamilton, Fairfield, Liberty Township.
Cincinnati runs 3.52 permits per 1,000 residents — right at the national 3.49 and well above the Ohio state median (1.63). Permit YoY is +56.7% — a massive acceleration. Builders are racing to catch up with the demand the price index has been signaling.
What's changing: net IRS migration is −1,398 returns (IRS SOI) — essentially flat. The marginal outflow is dwarfed by the price action. Unemployment is 3.6%, tighter than the national 4.0%. Owner-occupancy 68.1%, bachelor's-or-higher 36.9% — settled, educated, employed. The fundamentals are quietly strong.
What does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow: Cincinnati works. 4.39% cap proxy on a $240K median is one of the rare workable cap math metros in the queue. Look at Hamilton County's east-side neighborhoods (Madisonville, Pleasant Ridge, Oakley) and the workforce belt in northern Kentucky (Florence, Newport, Covington). The KY counties have lower entry plus the same regional employment access.
- If you're playing appreciation: Cincinnati is one of the best appreciation stories in the queue. +57.1% over 5 years AND +4.53% YoY says the trend is intact. Warren and Clermont counties are the suburban growth pockets with the strongest builder activity.
- If you already own here: Hold and lean in. Migration is essentially flat, the labor market is strong, the price index is climbing fast, and supply is just now catching up. Cincinnati is the hidden Sun Belt of the Midwest.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+57.1%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+4.5% YoY
$240,200 median home value
Cincinnati home prices climbed 57.1% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a steady appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change of 4.5% suggests steady appreciation continuing.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Cincinnati ran **+57.1% over five years** — hidden Sun Belt territory. Cincinnati actually OUTPACED Phoenix (+53.8%) and Miami (+55.3%) over the same window — and barely anyone noticed.
- 02Inside Ohio, Cincinnati ranks **#4 of 14** for 5-year HPI — top quartile of its own state. Columbus is the closest comparison; Cleveland and the smaller Ohio metros didn't run as hard.
- 03**Recent YoY is +4.53%** — one of the strongest recent prints in the queue, behind only St. Louis (+4.01%) and Pittsburgh (+4.74%). The acceleration is real and ongoing.
- 04U.S. metros ran **+34.3%** over the same window. Cincinnati outperformed by ~23pp — quietly one of the best 5-year runs in any major U.S. metro.
- 05The takeaway: Cincinnati is the **rust belt sleeper that woke up**. Sun-Belt-tier appreciation, Midwest entry prices, and the cycle has not ended. The narrative has not caught up with the data.
Where the value tier sits — top 5 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warren County | $319,700 | $107,843 | 2.96× | affordable |
| Boone County | $253,200 | $94,752 | 2.67× | affordable |
| Clermont County | $245,600 | $83,178 | 2.95× | affordable |
| Butler County | $243,000 | $81,194 | 2.99× | affordable |
| Franklin County | $236,700 | $79,702 | 2.97× | affordable |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,353
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
20.4% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 20.4% of their income — 2.8 points below the U.S. average (23.3%) 0.8 points below Ohio (21.2%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,051 | $12.6K | 15.9% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,353 | $16.2K | 20.4% | comfortable |
| 3 BR | $1,785 | $21.4K | 26.9% | moderate |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
3.6%
BLS LAUS · latest month
Cincinnati's labor market is healthy, with unemployment running at 3.6% — 0.4 points below the U.S. metros average (4.0%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
3.6%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$79,490
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
7,936
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+56.7% year-over-year
3.52 permits per 1,000 residents
Cincinnati pulled 7,936 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 56.7% year-over-year. That works out to 3.52 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
4,209
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
456
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
3,271
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 16 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Clermont County leads with 1,654 permits TTM** — east of Cincinnati proper. Suburban + exurban single-family expansion.
- 02**Hamilton County** (Cincinnati proper) builds **1,484 permits = 1.79 per 1,000** — light for the metro core but absolute volume is meaningful.
- 03**Warren County** (Mason, Lebanon) builds **1,410 permits = 5.80 per 1,000** — northern affluent exurb, $319,700 MHV (the most expensive in the metro).
- 04**Boone County, KY** (Florence, Burlington) builds **1,049 permits = 7.71 per 1,000** — the highest pace in the metro. Northern Kentucky's growth pole, just over the river from Cincinnati.
- 05Cincinnati runs **3.52 permits per 1,000 residents** — right at the national 3.49 average and well above the Ohio state median (1.63). **Permit YoY is +56.7%** — a massive acceleration from a low base. Builders are catching up to the demand.
How to read the map
- 01**Boone County, KY (south of the Ohio River) is the densest at 7.71 per 1,000** — Florence, Burlington, Hebron. Northern Kentucky punches above its weight.
- 02Clermont County, OH (east) at **7.92 per 1,000** — Milford, Loveland. Suburban single-family bedroom communities.
- 03Warren County, OH (north) at **5.80 per 1,000** — Mason, Lebanon. Affluent northern exurb.
- 04Hamilton County (the core) at only **1.79 per 1,000** — supply-constrained urban core. Almost all of the metro's growth is exurban.
- 05**The pattern is multi-state.** Northern Kentucky is the surprise growth pocket — Boone and Kenton counties are doing 1,675 combined permits over 305K residents, on par with the OH suburbs. The metro spans 3 states in geography but 1 in economics.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamilton County | 827,671 | $70,816 | $225,700 | 1,484 | +118.6% |
| 2 | Butler County | 388,327 | $81,194 | $243,000 | 984 | |
| 3 | Warren County | 243,189 | $107,843 | $319,700 | 1,410 | +45.2% |
| 4 | Clermont County | 208,851 | $83,178 | $245,600 | 1,654 | +99.8% |
| 5 | Kenton County | 169,066 | $79,421 | $227,500 | 626 | +10.8% |
| 6 | Boone County | 136,150 | $94,752 | $253,200 | 1,049 | +24.4% |
| 7 | Campbell County | 93,122 | $77,271 | $234,500 | 182 | |
| 8 | Dearborn County | 50,709 | $82,693 | $227,100 | 160 | +52.4% |
| 9 | Brown County | 43,715 | $69,990 | $181,100 | 141 | +12.8% |
| 10 | Grant County | 25,085 | $67,940 | $185,500 | 108 | +17.4% |
| 11 | Franklin County | 22,850 | $79,702 | $236,700 | 59 | +15.7% |
| 12 | Pendleton County | 14,638 | $66,601 | $160,800 | 0 | — |
| 13 | Gallatin County | 8,720 | $62,247 | $169,400 | 51 | +18.6% |
| 14 | Bracken County | 8,420 | $59,521 | $116,400 | — | — |
| 15 | Union County | 7,041 | $79,500 | $162,200 | 11 | +450.0% |
| 16 | Ohio County | 5,974 | $67,942 | $193,500 | 17 | +142.9% |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Cincinnati by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Cincinnati is closest in size to Kansas City, Columbus, Indianapolis, Las Vegas.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Cincinnati is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Cincinnati | 2.25M | $79K | $240K | 3.02× | 4.4% | +57.1% | 3.52 | -0.06% | 3.6% |
Kansas City, MO-KS | 2.19M | $82K | $265K | 3.24× | 4.0% | +51.8% | 4.11 | +0.00% | 3.5% |
Columbus, OH | 2.14M | $80K | $274K | 3.44× | 4.1% | +54.6% | 7.54 | -0.08% | 3.6% |
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN | 2.11M | $77K | $244K | 3.17× | 4.7% | +53.0% | 5.91 | +0.02% | 2.5% |
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV | 2.27M | $74K | $401K | 5.43× | 3.4% | +52.3% | 5.87 | +0.45% | 5.2% |
Pittsburgh, PA | 2.37M | $74K | $205K | 2.77× | 5.0% | +42.4% | 2.17 | -0.13% | 3.6% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
-1,398
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
-0.06% of metro population
9,796 from top origin
Cincinnati had a small −1,398 net IRS return — −0.06% of population, essentially flat. The marginal outflow is dwarfed by the price appreciation; a tiny number of households leaving doesn't change the demand picture in a market that's still climbing 4.5% year over year.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Hamilton County, OH | 9,796 |
| Butler County, OH | 5,182 |
| Kenton County, KY | 3,829 |
| Clermont County, OH | 3,298 |
| Warren County, OH | 3,109 |
| Boone County, KY | 2,792 |
Who lives in Cincinnati
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 38.2
- Owner-occupancy
- 68.1%
- Bachelor's+
- 36.9%
Cincinnati relatively young Midwest metro: Median age 38.2, 68.1% owner-occupancy 36.9% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 42.2% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $79,490
- Median age
- 38.2
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 36.9%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 68.1%
- Vacancy rate
- 6.5%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 42.2%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026