Albuquerque, NM
New Mexico's anchor metro — quietly steady while the Sun Belt overheats. Albuquerque's 4 counties hold 916,000 residents with a price-to-income ratio of 3.88 (moderate), a cap rate proxy of 4.33%, and 2,852 building permits TTM. Net IRS migration is a thin +942 — the metro grows by retention, not by transplant wave.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
3.88×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs New Mexico
- 3.78×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
moderate
Rent to income
25.8%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs New Mexico
- 25.2%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
4.3%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs New Mexico
- 4.1%+0.2
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
steady
Net migration
+0.10%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs New Mexico
- 0.10%
- vs U.S.
- 0.03%+0.07
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
3.11
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs New Mexico
- 3.31
- vs U.S.
- 3.48
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
healthy
Unemployment
3.9%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs New Mexico
- 4.3%-0.4
- vs U.S.
- 3.9%=
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Albuquerque
Albuquerque is New Mexico's anchor metro and its largest by every measure — first in population, first in building permits, first in 5-year HPI. Across 4 counties, the metro holds 915,968 residents with a median household income of $67,995 (Census ACS) and a median home value of $263,500. The HUD Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom is $1,464. The House Price Index gained +53.2% over five years (FHFA HPI) — a steady ramp that closely tracked the national average of +55.2% before plateauing in mid-2023. Price-to-income sits at 3.88 (moderate), and the cap rate proxy is 4.33% — deal-by-deal territory, right on the national median.
The permit story is the headline. The metro pulled 2,852 building permits TTM — 3.11 per 1,000 residents — with a +45.3% year-over-year surge driven almost entirely by Bernalillo County:
- Bernalillo County (674,692 pop, $268,500 MHV) — 1,625 permits, +86.8% YoY. The core county doubled its pace. The single-family / multifamily split across the metro is 63% SFR / 37% 5+ unit, meaning the multifamily pipeline is unusually active for a metro this size — 1,042 units in 5+ structures in the trailing twelve months.
- Sandoval County (149,460 pop, $282,300 MHV) — 978 permits, -14.8% YoY. The Rio Rancho corridor pulled back after an earlier building cycle. Still the second-highest permit total and the highest median home value in the metro.
- Valencia County (76,613 pop, $206,800 MHV) — 249 permits, +10.2% YoY. The affordable southern corridor along the Rio Grande — Los Lunas, Belen — continues modest, steady growth. At $206,800 median home value, it offers the cheapest entry point in the metro.
- Torrance County (15,203 pop, $145,100 MHV) — No measurable permit activity. A rural eastern outlier with the lowest income ($46,250 HHI) and minimal connection to the metro's housing pipeline.
What's changing: net IRS migration is +942 returns (IRS SOI) — +0.10% of population, matching the New Mexico state median. The top origin counties are internal reshuffles: Bernalillo and Sandoval exchange residents within the metro, Santa Fe sends 1,278 returns, and the only meaningful out-of-state inflow is 644 returns from Maricopa County, AZ — Phoenix retirees and remote workers trickling east. Unemployment is 3.9% (BLS LAUS), matching national. Owner-occupancy is 68.7% — above the national average, reflecting a stable homeowner base. The employment base leans on Kirtland Air Force Base, Sandia National Laboratories, the University of New Mexico, and Intel's Rio Rancho fab — defense, research, education, and semiconductor manufacturing. It is not a growth-at-all-costs metro; it is a stability metro.
What does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow: The math is borderline. 4.33% cap proxy is deal-by-deal — some properties pencil, many do not. Valencia County at $206,800 median is the corridor where the numbers have the best chance of working, but the rent base is thin. Screen hard and underwrite conservatively.
- If you're playing appreciation: Proceed with caution. +53.2% over five years is in the rearview mirror, and the +3.0% YoY is decelerating toward the national pace. The Bernalillo permit surge could add supply pressure if absorption doesn't keep up. This is not a momentum play — it is a "buy right and hold" metro where disciplined acquisitions compound slowly.
- If you already own here: Hold. The fundamentals are structurally sound — defense and national lab employment is as recession-resistant as it gets, owner-occupancy is high, and the price-to-income ratio has not stretched into dangerous territory. The 47.9% rent-burdened rate signals demand for affordable rental product. Don't expect another five-year +53% run, but don't expect a correction either.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+53.2%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+3.0% YoY
$263,500 median home value
Albuquerque home prices climbed 53.2% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a steady appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change of 3.0% suggests steady appreciation continuing.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Albuquerque (teal) climbed from 188.5 to 306.0 over 24 quarters — a +53.2% gain that closely tracks the New Mexico state average (blue) at +60.6%.
- 02The metro underperformed the U.S. average (dashed rust) by roughly 21 percentage points — national metros gained +55.2% over the same window.
- 03The steepest climb hit in 2021-Q2 through 2022-Q2, then flattened sharply. The last 8 quarters show near-plateau growth around 295–306.
- 04Year-over-year HPI is +3.0% as of Q4 2025 — cooling but still positive, no sign of price declines.
- 05The gap between Albuquerque and the national line has stayed roughly constant since mid-2022, meaning the metro is holding pace but not catching up.
Where the value tier sits — top 4 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandoval County | $282,300 | $84,053 | 3.36× | moderate |
| Bernalillo County | $268,500 | $66,514 | 4.04× | moderate |
| Valencia County | $206,800 | $58,333 | 3.55× | moderate |
| Torrance County | $145,100 | $46,250 | 3.14× | moderate |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,464
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
25.8% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 25.8% of their income — 2.5 points above the U.S. average (23.3%) 0.6 points above New Mexico (25.2%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,185 | $14.2K | 20.9% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,464 | $17.6K | 25.8% | moderate |
| 3 BR | $2,036 | $24.4K | 35.9% | rent-burdened |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
3.9%
BLS LAUS · latest month
Albuquerque's labor market is healthy, with unemployment running at 3.9% — 0.0 points above the U.S. metros average (3.9%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
3.9%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$67,995
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
2,852
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+45.3% year-over-year
3.11 permits per 1,000 residents
Albuquerque pulled 2,852 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 45.3% year-over-year. That works out to 3.11 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.48.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
1,800
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
10
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
1,042
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 4 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01Bernalillo County dominates with 1,625 permits — 57% of the metro total — and surged +86.8% year-over-year, likely driven by multifamily starts in the city core.
- 02Sandoval County holds second at 978 permits but contracted -14.8% YoY, signaling a pullback in the Rio Rancho / Corrales corridor.
- 03Valencia County contributed 249 permits (+10.2% YoY) — modest but steady growth in the affordable Los Lunas / Belen corridor south of the metro.
- 04Torrance County reports no permit data in the trailing twelve months — a rural county of 15,200 residents with minimal new construction.
How to read the map
- 01Bernalillo County (darkest shading) anchors the metro's center with 1,625 permits — the urban core where Albuquerque proper, the UNM campus, and Kirtland AFB concentrate activity.
- 02Sandoval County (medium shading) sits north along the I-25 corridor, covering Rio Rancho and the Jemez Springs area — 978 permits despite the -14.8% pullback.
- 03Valencia County (lightest shading) stretches south along the Rio Grande — 249 permits in the lower-cost communities of Los Lunas and Belen.
- 04Torrance County (no shading) on the eastern edge is a rural outlier — 15,200 residents, no measurable permit activity, and minimal connection to the metro's housing pipeline.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bernalillo County | 674,692 | $66,514 | $268,500 | 1,625 | +86.8% |
| 2 | Sandoval County | 149,460 | $84,053 | $282,300 | 978 | |
| 3 | Valencia County | 76,613 | $58,333 | $206,800 | 249 | +10.2% |
| 4 | Torrance County | 15,203 | $46,250 | $145,100 | — | — |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Albuquerque by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Albuquerque is closest in size to Bakersfield, Greenville, Knoxville, Baton Rouge.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Albuquerque is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Albuquerque | 0.92M | $68K | $264K | 3.88× | 4.3% | +53.2% | 3.11 | +0.10% | 3.9% |
Bakersfield, CA | 0.91M | $68K | $311K | 4.59× | 3.7% | +48.5% | 3.25 | +0.02% | 8.3% |
Greenville-Anderson, SC | 0.93M | $69K | $243K | 3.52× | 4.3% | +64.9% | 8.85 | +0.32% | 4.6% |
Knoxville, TN | 0.88M | $70K | $255K | 3.66× | 4.5% | +77.4% | 9.10 | +0.16% | 2.9% |
Baton Rouge, LA | 0.87M | $69K | $232K | 3.37× | 4.0% | +27.6% | 5.00 | -0.03% | 3.7% |
Columbia, SC | 0.83M | $66K | $213K | 3.23× | 4.7% | +60.4% | 7.48 | +0.10% | 4.7% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
+942
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
+0.10% of metro population
3,493 from top origin
Albuquerque absorbed +942 net IRS migrants — +0.10% of population. That matches the New Mexico state median exactly but sits well above the national median of +0.03%. Growth is real but thin — driven by internal state reshuffling, not a transplant wave.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Bernalillo County, NM | 3,493 |
| Sandoval County, NM | 2,059 |
| Santa Fe County, NM | 1,278 |
| Valencia County, NM | 780 |
| Maricopa County, AZ | 644 |
| McKinley County, NM | 471 |
Who lives in Albuquerque
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 39.6
- Owner-occupancy
- 68.7%
- Bachelor's+
- 35.0%
Albuquerque relatively young Midwest metro: Median age 39.6, 68.7% owner-occupancy 35.0% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 47.9% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $67,995
- Median age
- 39.6
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 35.0%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 68.7%
- Vacancy rate
- 6.7%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 47.9%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Jan 2026 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Jan 2026 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 10, 2026