Springfield, MA
**The Pioneer Valley college + insurance hub — supply-constrained Western Massachusetts.** Springfield runs HPI **+51.8% over 5yr** with **YoY +4.06%** strong sustained. **P/I 3.92 moderate (below MA state median 4.18), R/I 29.5% moderate, Cap proxy 4.90% workable**. MHV $276K — affordable by MA standards. FMR 2BR $1,734. 3 counties (Hampden 465K, Hampshire 154K, Franklin 71K). **Permits 1.10/1k TIGHT — second-lowest in queue after Akron 1.16**. **51/49 SF/multi nearly even — apartment-heavy build**. Migration **−1,044 (−0.15% shrinking)**. **Unemployment 5.7% softer**. Anchored by **MassMutual HQ** (Fortune 100 financial services), MGM Springfield casino, Smith & Wesson HQ, Big Y Foods, Springfield College (Basketball Hall of Fame), Western New England University, **the Five Colleges Consortium** (UMass Amherst + Amherst + Smith + Mt. Holyoke + Hampshire College — 30K+ students).
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
3.92×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Massachusetts
- 4.18×-0.26
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
moderate
Rent to income
29.5%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Massachusetts
- 29.5%=
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
4.9%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Massachusetts
- 4.3%+0.6
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%+0.5
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
shrinking
Net migration
-0.15%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Massachusetts
- -0.09%
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
1.10
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Massachusetts
- 1.64
- vs U.S.
- 3.49
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
5.7%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Massachusetts
- 4.3%
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Springfield
Springfield, MA is home to 689,486 residents in 3 counties — Hampden, Hampshire, and Franklin. The metro pulled 761 building permits over the trailing twelve months according to the Census Bureau Building Permits Survey — 1.10 per 1,000 residents, the second-tightest building rate in the queue (only Akron 1.16 is comparable). The cap rate proxy sits at 4.90% — workable — and the price-to-income ratio is 3.92 moderate (below the Massachusetts state median of 4.18). Median household income is $70,535, the median home value is $276K, and the BLS LAUS unemployment rate is 5.7% — softer than national.
The structural story is the Pioneer Valley college + insurance hub of Western Massachusetts. Springfield is the affordable Western counterpart to expensive Boston — same Massachusetts labor protections and rent stability, lower entry price, denser college concentration. The institutional roster:
- MassMutual HQ (Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Company) — Fortune 100 financial services giant founded in Springfield in 1851. $40T+ in assets under administration. ~10,000 employees in the metro.
- MGM Springfield — the $960M casino resort in downtown Springfield (opened 2018), the only casino in Western Massachusetts.
- Smith & Wesson HQ — firearms manufacturer headquartered in Springfield since 1852. Now under American Outdoor Brands.
- Big Y Foods — supermarket chain with HQ in Springfield, ~80 stores across Western MA and Connecticut.
- The Five Colleges Consortium — UMass Amherst (32,000 students), Smith College, Mt. Holyoke College, Amherst College, and Hampshire College — concentrated in adjacent Hampshire County. The largest college concentration in Western Massachusetts.
- Springfield College — the birthplace of basketball (Dr. James Naismith invented the game here in 1891). The Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame is downtown.
- Western New England University, American International College, Springfield Technical Community College.
- Baystate Health, the historic Springfield Armory (now a National Historic Site, where the M14 and M16 were developed).
The county distribution:
- Hampden County (464,575 residents, 337 permits TTM = 0.73 per 1,000) — Springfield, Holyoke, Chicopee, West Springfield, Westfield, Agawam, Longmeadow, Wilbraham, Ludlow, Palmer. 44% of the metro pipeline. Permit YoY +0.30%.
- Hampshire County (153,931 residents, 364 permits = 2.36 per 1,000) — Northampton, Amherst, Easthampton, South Hadley, Belchertown, Hadley, Williamsburg, Granby. The densest county per capita, anchored by the Five Colleges Consortium. Permit YoY +31.41%.
- Franklin County (70,980 residents, 60 permits = 0.85 per 1,000) — Greenfield, Orange, Montague, Deerfield, Athol. The rural northern county. Permit YoY −25%.
Construction is 51% single-family / 49% multifamily (389 SF / 36 multi-2-4 / 336 multi-5+) — nearly evenly split despite the tiny total, reflecting the dense Pioneer Valley college towns and the downtown Springfield apartment redevelopment.
What's changing: net IRS migration is −1,044 returns (−0.15% — shrinking). According to IRS Statistics of Income, Western Massachusetts is steadily losing population to lower-cost states (especially Florida and the Carolinas) and to the Boston metro. But the supply pipeline is so tight that even shrinking demand keeps prices climbing 4%+ per year. Owner-occupancy 62.2% (lower than national, reflecting the renter-heavy college towns), vacancy 6.6%, bachelors 28.9% (mid-pack — pulled down by Hampden County's industrial workforce), median age 39.8.
So what does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow — Springfield is a workable Western MA cash-flow setup but Massachusetts has the strictest landlord regulations in the country (rent control, lead paint, eviction moratoriums during emergencies). The cap proxy at 4.90% with a $276K median home value and a $1,734 Fair Market Rent actually pencils, but understand the regulatory stack before entering. Focus on Hampden County (Springfield, Chicopee, Westfield) for the lowest entry point; Hampshire County (Northampton, Easthampton) for the highest tenant quality (college-town professionals).
- If you're playing appreciation — Springfield is a scarcity-driven New England compounder. The +4.06% YoY is real — supply is constrained, regulations make new construction expensive, and the institutional anchor base (MassMutual + Five Colleges + Baystate Health) is durable. Hold for the supply-constraint decade — but understand that out-migration could accelerate if remote work normalizes back into the Boston-NYC commute belt.
- If you already own here — hold but don't aggressively add. The negative migration is the headwind. The MassMutual employment base is the floor. Watch the Five Colleges Consortium budget situation closely — university budgets are the structural rental demand here.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+51.8%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+4.1% YoY
$276,300 median home value
Springfield home prices climbed 51.8% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a steady appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change of 4.1% suggests steady appreciation continuing.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Springfield ran **+51.8% over five years** — strong New England territory, beating the U.S. metros average (+34.3%) by 17 points.
- 02**Recent YoY is +4.06%** — moderate, sustained. Western Massachusetts has avoided the cooldown that hit Boston harder.
- 03Inside Massachusetts, Springfield is the affordable Western counterpart to expensive Boston — same MA labor protections and rent stability, lower entry price.
- 04U.S. metros ran **+34.3%** over the same window. Springfield outperformed by ~17 points despite shrinking population.
- 05The takeaway: Springfield is the **Pioneer Valley supply-constraint compounder** — apartment-heavy build, college + insurance anchors, and a 1.10/1k permit rate that's the second-lowest in the queue.
Where the value tier sits — top 3 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hampshire County | $363,400 | $86,391 | 4.21× | moderate |
| Franklin County | $303,400 | $72,584 | 4.18× | moderate |
| Hampden County | $276,300 | $70,535 | 3.92× | moderate |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,734
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
29.5% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 29.5% of their income — 6.2 points above the U.S. average (23.3%) right at Massachusetts (29.5%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,382 | $16.6K | 23.5% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,734 | $20.8K | 29.5% | moderate |
| 3 BR | $2,127 | $25.5K | 36.2% | rent-burdened |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
5.7%
BLS LAUS · latest month
Springfield's labor market is softening, with unemployment running at 5.7% — 1.7 points above the U.S. metros average (4.0%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
5.7%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$70,535
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
761
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+13.2% year-over-year
1.10 permits per 1,000 residents
Springfield pulled 761 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 13.2% year-over-year. That works out to 1.10 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
389
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
36
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
336
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 3 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Hampden County leads with 337 TTM permits = 0.73 per 1,000** — Springfield, Holyoke, Chicopee, West Springfield, Westfield, Agawam, Longmeadow, Wilbraham, Ludlow. **44% of the metro pipeline.** Permit YoY +0.30%.
- 02**Hampshire County** (Northampton, Amherst, Easthampton, South Hadley, Belchertown, Hadley, Williamsburg) issued **364 permits = 2.36 per 1,000** — **the densest county per capita**. Anchored by **the Five Colleges Consortium**: UMass Amherst, Smith College, Mt. Holyoke, Amherst College, Hampshire College. Permit YoY +31.41%.
- 03**Franklin County** (Greenfield, Orange, Montague, Deerfield, Athol) issued **60 permits = 0.85 per 1,000** — the rural northern county. Permit YoY −25%.
- 04Springfield runs **1.10 permits per 1,000 residents** — **second-lowest in the queue after Akron 1.16**. Far below the national 3.49.
- 05**51% single-family / 49% multifamily** (389 SF / 36 multi-2-4 / 336 multi-5+) — **nearly balanced** despite the tiny total. Reflects the dense Pioneer Valley college towns + downtown Springfield apartment redevelopment.
How to read the map
- 01**Hampshire County (north, Amherst/Northampton) is densest at 2.36 per 1,000** — the Five Colleges Consortium county. Northampton is also one of the most progressive small cities in the country.
- 02**Franklin County (north, Greenfield) at 0.85 per 1,000** — rural northern county along the Connecticut River, more agricultural than suburban.
- 03**Hampden County (south, Springfield/Holyoke) at 0.73 per 1,000** — the urban core with Springfield, Holyoke (former paper-mill capital), Chicopee, Westfield. Anchored by MassMutual HQ, MGM Springfield casino, Smith & Wesson HQ, the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame.
- 04**The pattern is uniformly low-build** — even Hampshire County (the densest) is below the national 3.49.
- 05Hampden County hosts **MassMutual HQ** (Fortune 100 financial services, $40T+ assets under administration), the historic **Springfield Armory** (now National Park, where the M14 and M16 were developed), and **Smith & Wesson** firearms HQ since 1852.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hampden County | 464,575 | $70,535 | $276,300 | 337 | +0.3% |
| 2 | Hampshire County | 153,931 | $86,391 | $363,400 | 364 | +31.4% |
| 3 | Franklin County | 70,980 | $72,584 | $303,400 | 60 |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Springfield by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Springfield is closest in size to Akron, Deltona, Syracuse, Wichita.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Springfield is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Springfield | 0.69M | $71K | $276K | 3.92× | 4.9% | +51.8% | 1.10 | -0.15% | 5.7% |
Akron, OH | 0.70M | $71K | $199K | 2.79× | 5.0% | +53.2% | 1.16 | -0.02% | 4.3% |
Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL | 0.68M | $68K | $287K | 4.25× | 4.9% | +52.0% | 8.03 | +1.20% | 5.3% |
Syracuse, NY | 0.66M | $74K | $175K | 2.38× | 6.2% | +69.4% | 3.36 | -0.20% | 3.8% |
Wichita, KS | 0.65M | $69K | $188K | 2.73× | 4.6% | +49.6% | 4.67 | +0.01% | 3.7% |
Winston-Salem, NC | 0.68M | $64K | $213K | 3.32× | 4.5% | +64.9% | 7.13 | +0.22% | 3.5% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
-1,044
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
-0.15% of metro population
1,733 from top origin
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Hampshire County, MA | 1,733 |
| Hampden County, MA | 1,228 |
| Worcester County, MA | 1,136 |
| Capitol Planning Region, CT | 915 |
| Middlesex County, MA | 608 |
| Franklin County, MA | 570 |
Who lives in Springfield
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 39.8
- Owner-occupancy
- 62.2%
- Bachelor's+
- 28.9%
Springfield relatively young Midwest metro: Median age 39.8, 62.2% owner-occupancy 28.9% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 49.9% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $70,535
- Median age
- 39.8
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 28.9%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 62.2%
- Vacancy rate
- 6.6%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 49.9%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Jan 2026 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Jan 2026 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026