Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH
Expensive and anemic. Boston has a $610,900 median home value, the smallest build pipeline of any 5M-pop metro (9,217 permits = 1.88 per 1,000 residents), and net out-migration of −21,304 — and still grinds out +1.14% HPI on the year because demand for the Cambridge-Suffolk innovation core never quits.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
expensive
Price to income
5.43×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Massachusetts
- 4.18×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
burdened
Rent to income
31.4%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Massachusetts
- 29.5%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
tight
Cap rate proxy
3.8%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Massachusetts
- 4.3%
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
shrinking
Net migration
-0.43%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Massachusetts
- -0.09%
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
1.88
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Massachusetts
- 1.64+0.24
- vs U.S.
- 3.49
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
4.3%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Massachusetts
- 4.3%=
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Boston
Boston is the most expensive, most supply-constrained large metro east of the Mississippi. Across 7 counties — 5 in Massachusetts plus Rockingham and Strafford in New Hampshire — the metro packs 4.91 million residents with a household income of $112,484 (Census ACS) and a median home value of $610,900. The HUD Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom is $2,941 — the highest of any metro in the queue. The House Price Index ran +34.0% over five years (Freddie Mac FMHPI), and after a soft 2023, YoY just turned positive again at +1.14%.
The interesting fact is that Boston is the most supply-constrained large metro in the country, and the supply story plays out across the state line. The whole metro permits 9,217 units over the trailing twelve months (Census BPS) — less than 1/3 of Atlanta's 31,864 despite a comparable population — and 5,337 of those (58%) are 5-plus-unit multifamily. Boston is an apartment market, not an SFR market. Look at where the construction lands:
- Middlesex County (1.62M pop, $687,200 median home value) leads with 2,222 building permits TTM — Cambridge plus the inner-ring suburbs.
- Suffolk County (Boston proper, 785K pop) follows with 2,019 permits — the city itself is still building at scale, mostly multifamily downtown.
- Rockingham County, NH (315K pop) is the third-most-active builder with 1,452 permits — a fraction of Middlesex's population but a critical relief valve for priced-out Boston households crossing the state line.
- Norfolk, Essex, and Plymouth each crack 900-1,100 permits. Strafford NH brings up the rear at 534.
Boston runs 1.88 permits per 1,000 residents — well below the national 3.49. Every county in the metro permits below the national rate.
What's changing: net IRS migration is −21,304 returns (IRS SOI) — the largest interstate out-migration of any 5M-population metro east of the Mississippi. The top origin counties are all inside the metro (Suffolk, Middlesex, Norfolk, Essex, Worcester) — meaning the −21K is people leaving Boston for cheaper places, not intra-metro reshuffling. And yet the cap rate proxy sits at 3.8% — tight, well below the 4.4% national figure. Unemployment is 4.3%, slightly above the national 4.0%.
What does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow: Boston isn't your market. The cap proxy at 3.8% won't pencil at the metro median — and rent-burdened share is 47.9%, meaning the rent ceiling is real. If you're set on the area, look at southern New Hampshire (Rockingham, Strafford), where median home values fall to $461,400 and $332,400 respectively.
- If you're playing appreciation: Boston is an institutional yield play, not a 5-year double. The +34% run trailed the country, and the structural supply shortage caps downside risk more than it juices upside.
- If you already own here: Stay. The 51.2% bachelor's-or-higher workforce and the Cambridge biotech-and-finance moat keep occupancy locked. Watch the next two YoY prints — if Q1 and Q2 2026 stay positive, the recovery is real.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+34.0%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+1.1% YoY
$610,900 median home value
Boston home prices climbed 34.0% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a modest appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change has cooled to 1.1%, signaling the post-2022 surge has unwound into steady-state appreciation.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Boston's index ran from ~196 in early 2020 to ~287 in Q4 2025. The **+34.0% 5-year change** in the card above is the canonical figure (Q4 2020 → Q4 2025) — a slower run than Atlanta or the Sun Belt anchors.
- 02The Massachusetts state line tracks Boston nearly point-for-point — Boston is ~71% of MA's metro population, so the state-weighted average **is** the Boston line.
- 03U.S. metros climbed **+34.3%** over the same window. Boston ran roughly even with the country — Northeast appreciation has matched, not led, the national pace.
- 04The most recent quarter bends back upward. **YoY is now +1.14%**, the first positive print in over a year — a quiet recovery from the 2023 softness, not a spike.
- 05In its own state, Boston ranks **#6 of 6** for 5-year HPI — the smaller MA metros (Worcester, Springfield, Pittsfield) all grew faster from a lower base.
Where the value tier sits — top 5 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesex County | $687,200 | $126,779 | 5.42× | stretched |
| Suffolk County | $680,700 | $92,859 | 7.33× | stretched |
| Norfolk County | $649,400 | $126,497 | 5.13× | stretched |
| Essex County | $584,000 | $99,431 | 5.87× | stretched |
| Plymouth County | $513,000 | $109,698 | 4.68× | moderate |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$2,941
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
31.4% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 31.4% of their income — 8.1 points above the U.S. average (23.3%) 1.9 points above Massachusetts (29.5%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $2,476 | $29.7K | 26.4% | moderate |
| 2 BR | $2,941 | $35.3K | 31.4% | rent-burdened |
| 3 BR | $3,526 | $42.3K | 37.6% | rent-burdened |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
4.3%
BLS LAUS · latest month
Boston's labor market is softening, with unemployment running at 4.3% — 0.3 points above the U.S. metros average (4.0%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
4.3%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$112,484
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
9,217
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+12.9% year-over-year
1.88 permits per 1,000 residents
Boston pulled 9,217 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 12.9% year-over-year. That works out to 1.88 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
3,478
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
402
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
5,337
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 7 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Middlesex County leads with 2,222 permits TTM** — 24% of the metro's 9,217 total. Cambridge plus the inner-ring suburbs absorb the most construction.
- 02Suffolk (Boston proper) follows with **2,019 permits** — the city itself is still permitting at scale, mostly in 5+ unit multifamily.
- 03**Rockingham County, NH builds 1,452 permits — the third most despite only 315,000 residents.** The relief valve for priced-out Boston households is across the state line.
- 04Norfolk, Essex, and Plymouth each crack 900-1,100 permits. Strafford NH brings up the rear at 534. The whole metro permits **9,217 units** — less than 1/3 of Atlanta's 31,864 despite a comparable population.
- 05Boston runs **1.88 permits per 1,000 residents** — slightly above the Massachusetts state median of 1.64 (the whole state is supply-constrained) but well below the national 3.49. This is the most supply-constrained large metro in the country.
How to read the map
- 01Suffolk (Boston) and Middlesex (Cambridge) anchor the central metro — together they account for 4,241 permits TTM, 46% of the metro pipeline.
- 02**Rockingham, NH (north) is darker than Norfolk, Essex, or Plymouth on a per-capita basis.** A county with 315,000 people permits more units per resident than the suburban MA counties twice its size.
- 03Strafford NH (the northern fringe) is the lightest county in the metro — 534 permits over 131,000 residents. Geography and infrastructure constrain the supply chain at the metro edge.
- 04The 7-county footprint stretches roughly 60 miles north-south, anchored by Boston Harbor at the southeast and the New Hampshire border at the north.
- 05**The map tells the supply story:** even though demand pulls hardest in Suffolk + Middlesex, every county in the metro permits below the national 3.49 per 1,000. Boston is structurally short of housing.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesex County | 1,623,109 | $126,779 | $687,200 | 2,222 | |
| 2 | Essex County | 806,103 | $99,431 | $584,000 | 940 | |
| 3 | Suffolk County | 785,443 | $92,859 | $680,700 | 2,019 | +8.4% |
| 4 | Norfolk County | 722,112 | $126,497 | $649,400 | 1,116 | +46.8% |
| 5 | Plymouth County | 529,548 | $109,698 | $513,000 | 934 | |
| 6 | Rockingham County | 315,169 | $113,927 | $461,400 | 1,452 | +56.5% |
| 7 | Strafford County | 130,965 | $86,564 | $332,400 | 534 |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Boston by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Best in 1 of 2 comparable metrics
Boston is closest in size to San Francisco, Seattle, Washington, Riverside. best in class on Cap rate proxy.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Boston is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Boston | 4.91M | $112K | $611K | 5.43× | 3.8% | +34.0% | 1.88 | -0.43% | 4.3% |
San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA | 4.69M | $134K | $1114K | 8.33× | 2.5% | +9.7% | 1.60 | -0.54% | 4.1% |
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA | 4.00M | $113K | $674K | 5.98× | 2.9% | +23.4% | 3.91 | -0.08% | 5.0% |
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV | 6.35M | $124K | $553K | 4.46× | 3.2% | +21.3% | 2.79 | -0.31% | 3.8% |
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA | 4.61M | $86K | $494K | 5.74× | 3.5% | +50.2% | 3.26 | +0.08% | 5.1% |
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ | 4.86M | $85K | $401K | 4.74× | 3.6% | +53.8% | 7.99 | +0.31% | 3.5% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
-21,304
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
-0.43% of metro population
21,882 from top origin
Boston lost −21,304 net IRS returns in the latest vintage — the largest interstate out-migration of any 5M-population metro east of the Mississippi. The exits are interstate (people leaving for cheaper markets), not intra-metro reshuffling.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Suffolk County, MA | 21,882 |
| Middlesex County, MA | 19,788 |
| Norfolk County, MA | 11,812 |
| Essex County, MA | 8,980 |
| Worcester County, MA | 5,532 |
| Plymouth County, MA | 4,510 |
Who lives in Boston
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 39.3
- Owner-occupancy
- 61.8%
- Bachelor's+
- 51.2%
Boston relatively young Midwest metro: Median age 39.3, 61.8% owner-occupancy 51.2% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 47.9% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $112,484
- Median age
- 39.3
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 51.2%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 61.8%
- Vacancy rate
- 5.9%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 47.9%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q1 2026 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026