Baton Rouge, LA
**Permit YoY +80.9% — biggest acceleration in queue.** Baton Rouge is the petrochemical capital. 10-parish metro at $232K median. P/I 3.37 moderate, R/I 21.0% comfortable, cap proxy 4.04% borderline. **HPI only +27.6% over 5yr — lowest in queue**, but **YoY +4.62% strong** (the price action just started). Permits 5.00/1k strong. Migration −240 essentially flat. Anchored by ExxonMobil chemical complex, LSU, Pennington Biomedical, the Mississippi petchem corridor.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
3.37×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Louisiana
- 3.37×=
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×-0.06
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
21.0%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Louisiana
- 21.8%-0.8
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%-2.3
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
4.0%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Louisiana
- 4.5%
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
shrinking
Net migration
-0.03%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Louisiana
- -0.15%+0.12
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
5.00
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Louisiana
- 2.76+2.24
- vs U.S.
- 3.49+1.51
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
healthy
Unemployment
3.7%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Louisiana
- 3.9%-0.1
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%-0.3
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Baton Rouge
Baton Rouge is the Sun Belt laggard catching up. Across 10 parishes — East Baton Rouge at the core plus Ascension, Livingston, and 7 smaller (Louisiana uses parishes instead of counties) — the metro packs 870,000 residents with a household income of $68,910 (Census ACS) and a median home value of $232,300. The HUD Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom is $1,204. The House Price Index ran +27.6% over five years (FHFA HPI) — the lowest 5-year HPI of any metro in the queue, well below the U.S. metros average of +34.3%.
The interesting fact is that the cycle just started. Recent year-over-year HPI is +4.62% — strong, healthy. After lagging the national for 4 years, Baton Rouge is now reaccelerating. Permit YoY is +80.9% — the biggest acceleration in the queue. The price-to-income ratio is 3.37 (moderate), the rent-to-income is 21.0% (comfortable), and the cap rate proxy is 4.04% (borderline). Inside Louisiana, Baton Rouge ranks #2 of 9 by population, #1 by permits, #3 by 5-year HPI. The petchem economy lagged the broader Sun Belt boom but the inflection is now.
The 10-parish geometry concentrates pipeline in 3 parishes:
- East Baton Rouge Parish (454K pop, $241,800 MHV) leads with 2,356 permits TTM = 5.18 per 1,000 — Baton Rouge proper plus Baker, Zachary, Central. 54% of the metro pipeline.
- Ascension Parish (127K pop, $265,300 MHV) is the density leader at 874 permits = 6.88 per 1,000 — Gonzales, Prairieville, St. Amant. South suburban Mississippi River corridor toward New Orleans.
- Livingston Parish (143K pop, $218,900 MHV) builds 730 permits = 5.09 per 1,000 — Denham Springs, Walker, Watson. East suburban growth.
- Iberville, West Baton Rouge, Pointe Coupee, Assumption, East Feliciana, West Feliciana, St. Helena combined add ~390 permits.
Baton Rouge runs 5.00 permits per 1,000 residents — well above the national 3.49 and almost double the Louisiana state median of 2.76. The 76% single-family / 22% 5+ multifamily mix is heavy SFR. Permit YoY +80.9% — builders see the inflection.
What's changing: net IRS migration is −240 returns (IRS SOI) — −0.03% of population, essentially flat. Far better than the Louisiana state median of −0.15% — the rest of LA bleeds harder. Owner-occupancy 69.1%, bachelor's-or-higher 30.0%, median age 36.0. The labor market is anchored by ExxonMobil (the Baton Rouge chemical complex is one of ExxonMobil's largest globally), the Mississippi River petrochemical corridor (Dow, Shell, Air Liquide, Formosa, BASF), Louisiana State University, Pennington Biomedical Research Center, Our Lady of the Lake, the Louisiana state government (Baton Rouge is the capital), and Cajun Industries. Petchem + state government + flagship research university + healthcare. Diversified within the energy economy.
What does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow: Baton Rouge is borderline. 4.04% cap proxy on a $232K median is the wrong side of workable but the +80.9% permit acceleration suggests the rent base is also moving. Look at East Baton Rouge working-class neighborhoods (Mid City, North Baton Rouge, Old South) for $130K-$180K SFR.
- If you're playing appreciation: Baton Rouge is interesting. The 5-year laggard with a +4.62% YoY inflection AND +80.9% permit acceleration is exactly the setup that catches up over the next 3-5 years. If you want LA exposure, this is the place — not New Orleans (which is structurally bleeding).
- If you already own here: Hold and add. The cycle is rotating into Baton Rouge after 4 years of flat. Ascension and Livingston Parish exurbs are where the new build is concentrated.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+27.6%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+4.6% YoY
$232,300 median home value
Baton Rouge home prices climbed 27.6% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a modest appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change of 4.6% suggests steady appreciation continuing.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Baton Rouge ran **+27.6% over five years** — **the lowest 5-year HPI of any metro in the queue**, well below the U.S. metros average of +34.3%.
- 02**But recent YoY is +4.62%** — strong, healthy. The price action **just started**. After lagging the national for 4 years, Baton Rouge is now reaccelerating.
- 03Inside Louisiana, Baton Rouge ranks **#3 of 9** for 5-year HPI — the petchem economy lagged the broader Sun Belt boom. **#2 by population, #1 by permits**.
- 04U.S. metros ran **+34.3%** over the same window. Baton Rouge underperformed by ~7 points — but the cycle inflection is happening now.
- 05The takeaway: Baton Rouge is the **Sun Belt laggard catching up** — lowest 5-year HPI in the queue but the strongest recent YoY among the southern metros that haven't already run.
Where the value tier sits — top 5 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ascension Parish | $265,300 | $92,266 | 2.88× | affordable |
| West Feliciana Parish | $263,200 | $74,277 | 3.54× | moderate |
| East Baton Rouge Parish | $241,800 | $63,075 | 3.83× | moderate |
| West Baton Rouge Parish | $225,900 | $87,320 | 2.59× | affordable |
| Livingston Parish | $218,900 | $78,617 | 2.78× | affordable |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,204
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
21.0% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 21.0% of their income — 2.3 points below the U.S. average (23.3%) 0.8 points below Louisiana (21.8%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,064 | $12.8K | 18.5% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,204 | $14.4K | 21.0% | comfortable |
| 3 BR | $1,511 | $18.1K | 26.3% | moderate |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
3.7%
BLS LAUS · latest month
Baton Rouge's labor market is healthy, with unemployment running at 3.7% — 0.3 points below the U.S. metros average (4.0%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
3.7%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$68,910
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
4,349
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+80.9% year-over-year
5.00 permits per 1,000 residents
Baton Rouge pulled 4,349 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 80.9% year-over-year. That works out to 5.00 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
3,313
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
83
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
953
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 10 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**East Baton Rouge Parish leads with 2,356 TTM permits = 5.18 per 1,000** — Baton Rouge proper plus Baker, Zachary, Central. 54% of the metro pipeline.
- 02**Ascension Parish** (Gonzales, Prairieville, St. Amant) builds **874 permits = 6.88 per 1,000** — the **density leader** of the metro. South suburban Mississippi-River corridor toward New Orleans.
- 03**Livingston Parish** (Denham Springs, Walker, Watson) issues **730 permits = 5.09 per 1,000** — east suburban growth.
- 04**Iberville, West Baton Rouge, Pointe Coupee, Assumption, East/West Feliciana, St. Helena** combined add ~390 permits — small rural parishes.
- 05Baton Rouge runs **5.00 permits per 1,000 residents** — well above the national 3.49 and the Louisiana state median of 2.76. **Permit YoY is +80.9%** — the **biggest acceleration in the queue**.
How to read the map
- 01**Ascension Parish (south, Gonzales/Prairieville/St. Amant) is densest at 6.88 per 1,000** — south suburban corridor along the Mississippi River toward New Orleans.
- 02**East Baton Rouge Parish (the urban core) at 5.18 per 1,000** — Baton Rouge proper, Baker, Zachary, Central. Large absolute volume (2,356 permits).
- 03**Livingston Parish (east, Denham Springs/Walker/Watson) at 5.09 per 1,000** — east suburban growth corridor.
- 04**West Feliciana Parish at 3.84 per 1,000** — small but proportionally building.
- 05**The other 6 parishes** all build under 4/1k — small rural parishes (St. Helena built only 14 permits TTM).
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | East Baton Rouge Parish | 454,369 | $63,075 | $241,800 | 2,356 | +136.6% |
| 2 | Livingston Parish | 143,425 | $78,617 | $218,900 | 730 | |
| 3 | Ascension Parish | 126,973 | $92,266 | $265,300 | 874 | +42.8% |
| 4 | Iberville Parish | 30,210 | $57,459 | $177,100 | 120 | +31.9% |
| 5 | West Baton Rouge Parish | 27,377 | $87,320 | $225,900 | 105 | |
| 6 | Assumption Parish | 21,067 | $52,546 | $141,200 | 31 | +6.9% |
| 7 | Pointe Coupee Parish | 20,652 | $59,351 | $174,500 | 41 | |
| 8 | East Feliciana Parish | 19,452 | $72,899 | $213,700 | 19 | |
| 9 | West Feliciana Parish | 15,358 | $74,277 | $263,200 | 59 | +25.5% |
| 10 | St. Helena Parish | 10,872 | $50,193 | $106,400 | 14 | +40.0% |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Baton Rouge by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Best in 1 of 3 comparable metrics
Baton Rouge is closest in size to Knoxville, Bakersfield, Albuquerque, Columbia. best in class on Unemployment, and behind on Net migration.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Baton Rouge is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Baton Rouge | 0.87M | $69K | $232K | 3.37× | 4.0% | +27.6% | 5.00 | -0.03% | 3.7% |
Knoxville, TN | 0.88M | $70K | $255K | 3.66× | 4.5% | +77.4% | 9.10 | +0.16% | — |
Bakersfield, CA | 0.91M | $68K | $311K | 4.59× | 3.7% | +48.5% | 3.25 | +0.02% | — |
Albuquerque, NM | 0.92M | $68K | $264K | 3.88× | 4.3% | +53.2% | — | +0.01% | — |
Columbia, SC | 0.83M | $66K | $213K | 3.23× | 4.7% | +60.4% | 0.82 | +0.07% | — |
Greenville-Anderson, SC | 0.93M | $69K | $243K | 3.52× | 4.3% | +64.9% | 8.85 | +0.32% | 4.6% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
-240
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
-0.03% of metro population
3,883 from top origin
Baton Rouge was essentially flat on net IRS migration — losing −240 returns, −0.03% of population. Far better than the Louisiana state median of −0.15%. The petchem economy + LSU footprint keep household formation steady where most of the rest of Louisiana is shrinking faster.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| East Baton Rouge Parish, LA | 3,883 |
| Livingston Parish, LA | 1,507 |
| Ascension Parish, LA | 1,450 |
| Tangipahoa Parish, LA | 874 |
| Jefferson Parish, LA | 620 |
| West Baton Rouge Parish, LA | 579 |
Who lives in Baton Rouge
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 36.0
- Owner-occupancy
- 69.1%
- Bachelor's+
- 30.0%
Baton Rouge relatively young Midwest metro: Median age 36.0, 69.1% owner-occupancy 30.0% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 47.5% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $68,910
- Median age
- 36.0
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 30.0%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 69.1%
- Vacancy rate
- 14.2%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 47.5%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026