Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
The Florida heat-pocket that already cooled. Tampa HPI ran +42.8% over 5 years and just flipped to −1.88% YoY — but migration is still +22,311, permits are up +25.1% YoY (22,090 TTM, 6.92 per 1k), and the cap rate proxy at 5.0% is the first workable deal-by-deal in the queue.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
4.30×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Florida
- 4.22×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
burdened
Rent to income
33.3%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Florida
- 28.1%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
5.0%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Florida
- 4.4%+0.6
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%+0.7
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
steady
Net migration
+0.70%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Florida
- 0.83%
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%+0.66
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
6.92
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Florida
- 8.03
- vs U.S.
- 3.49+3.43
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
4.6%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Florida
- 4.5%
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Tampa
Tampa is the Florida heat-pocket that already cooled. Across 4 counties — Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco, and Hernando — the metro packs 3.19 million residents with a household income of $71,254 (Census ACS) and a median home value of $306,100 — moderate for FL. The HUD Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom is $1,977. The House Price Index ran +42.8% over five years (Freddie Mac FMHPI) — beating the country by ~9pp — and YoY just flipped to −1.88%, one of the first FL metros to go negative.
The interesting fact is where the construction is going. Tampa has 4 counties with very different per-capita build profiles:
- Hillsborough County (1.47M pop, $333,300 median home value) leads with 8,432 building permits TTM — Tampa proper plus the east-side growth corridor (Brandon, Riverview).
- Pasco County (569K pop, $265,800 median home value) is tied for the lead with 7,984 permits — but at only 569K residents that's 14.0 permits per 1,000 residents, the highest per-capita rate in the queue. Wesley Chapel, Land O' Lakes, and Lutz are the headline northern exurb growth nodes.
- Pinellas County (St. Petersburg/Clearwater, 960K pop) builds 3,655 permits — only 3.81 per 1,000, restrained by being a peninsula with no developable land.
- Hernando County (north fringe, 196K pop) adds 2,019 permits = 10.27 per 1,000 — also high, also exurban.
Tampa runs 6.92 permits per 1,000 residents — well above the national 3.49 but below the Florida state median of 8.03. Permit YoY is +25.1% — strong post-2023 ramp.
What's changing: net IRS migration is +22,311 returns (IRS SOI) — the second-largest positive in the queue after Phoenix, and the only major metro that's still growing strongly in population while HPI flips negative. The cap rate proxy sits at 5.0% — deal-by-deal but workable, the first cap proxy in the Tier 3+4 cohort that's actually above the national 4.4%. Unemployment is 4.6%, slightly above the national 4.0%. 53% of households are rent-burdened — high. Inside Florida, Tampa ranks #20 of 22 for 5-year HPI — surprising for a metro this size.
What does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow: Tampa is the first major metro south of Detroit where the math approaches workable. The 5.0% cap proxy at the metro median, combined with a $306K MHV and steady migration, makes the exurb counties (Pasco, Hernando) genuine candidates.
- If you're playing appreciation: The 5-year run is over. YoY just flipped negative and Tampa lagged the FL growth metros over the past five years. Look at the smaller FL metros (Cape Coral, Naples, Punta Gorda) for the next leg — they ran harder and may continue to.
- If you already own here: Stay. The 25.1% permit YoY says builders see continued demand. Watch the next two YoY prints — Tampa is the cycle indicator for the rest of Florida.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+42.8%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
-1.9% YoY
$306,100 median home value
Tampa home prices climbed 42.8% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a steady appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change is negative (-1.9%), signaling the market is cooling.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Tampa's index ran from ~189 in early 2020 to ~270 in Q4 2025. The **+42.8% 5-year change** in the card above is the canonical figure (Q4 2020 → Q4 2025) — middle of the queue, beating the country by ~9pp.
- 02The Florida state line tracks Tampa loosely — Florida has 22 metros, and the smaller ones (Cape Coral, Naples, Punta Gorda) ran much harder than Tampa from 2020.
- 03U.S. metros climbed **+34.3%** over the same window. Tampa beat the country but lagged the Sun Belt growth leaders (Phoenix +53.8%, Miami +55.3%, San Diego +52.2%).
- 04The most recent quarter is **−1.88% YoY** — Tampa is one of the first Florida metros to flip negative on the year. The 2024 freeze hit harder here than in Miami or Jacksonville.
- 05Inside Florida, Tampa ranks **#20 of 22** for 5-year HPI — surprising for a metro this size, but the smaller FL growth metros all ran ahead of it.
Where the value tier sits — top 4 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hillsborough County | $333,300 | $75,011 | 4.44× | moderate |
| Pinellas County | $319,000 | $70,293 | 4.54× | moderate |
| Pasco County | $265,800 | $67,384 | 3.94× | moderate |
| Hernando County | $240,700 | $63,193 | 3.81× | moderate |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,977
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
33.3% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 33.3% of their income — 10.0 points above the U.S. average (23.3%) 5.1 points above Florida (28.1%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,696 | $20.4K | 28.6% | moderate |
| 2 BR | $1,977 | $23.7K | 33.3% | rent-burdened |
| 3 BR | $2,527 | $30.3K | 42.6% | rent-burdened |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
4.6%
BLS LAUS · latest month
Tampa's labor market is softening, with unemployment running at 4.6% — 0.6 points above the U.S. metros average (4.0%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
4.6%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$71,254
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
22,090
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+25.1% year-over-year
6.92 permits per 1,000 residents
Tampa pulled 22,090 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 25.1% year-over-year. That works out to 6.92 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
13,725
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
370
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
7,995
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 4 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Hillsborough County leads with 8,432 permits TTM** — 38% of the metro's 22,090-unit total. Tampa proper plus Brandon, Riverview, and the east-side growth corridor.
- 02**Pasco County (north exurbs) is tied for the lead with 7,984 permits** — but at only 569K residents, that's **14.0 per 1,000**, the highest per-capita rate in the queue. The northern exurbs of Wesley Chapel, Land O' Lakes, and Lutz are absorbing the bulk of the metro's growth.
- 03Pinellas County (St. Petersburg, Clearwater) builds **3,655 permits** despite 960K residents — only 3.81 per 1,000, restrained by being a peninsula with no developable land.
- 04Hernando (north fringe) adds **2,019 permits** at 196K residents = 10.27 per 1,000 — also high, also exurban.
- 05Tampa runs **6.92 permits per 1,000 residents** — well above the national 3.49 but below the Florida state median of 8.03. **Permit YoY is +25.1%** — strong post-2023 ramp.
How to read the map
- 01**Pasco County (north of Hillsborough) is the densest fill** — 14.0 per 1,000 residents, the highest exurb-pace in the queue. Wesley Chapel and Land O' Lakes are the headline growth corridors.
- 02Hillsborough (Tampa proper) at 5.74 per 1,000 — moderate by metro-core standards but still well above the national 3.49. The east-side suburbs (Brandon, Riverview) are where the SFR construction lands.
- 03Hernando at 10.27 per 1,000 is the second-densest per capita — small population but big building share.
- 04**Pinellas (peninsula) is the lightest** at 3.81 per 1,000. Geographically there's no land to develop — Pinellas is the most densely populated county in Florida and is essentially built out.
- 05**The build intensity migrates northward.** Tampa's growth is moving up I-75 into Pasco and Hernando, the same way Phoenix's grew into Pinal. Coastal Pinellas is the legacy core; the future is north of I-275.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hillsborough County | 1,468,560 | $75,011 | $333,300 | 8,432 | +10.1% |
| 2 | Pinellas County | 959,918 | $70,293 | $319,000 | 3,655 | +63.8% |
| 3 | Pasco County | 569,211 | $67,384 | $265,800 | 7,984 | +31.1% |
| 4 | Hernando County | 196,621 | $63,193 | $240,700 | 2,019 |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Tampa by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Best in 2 of 4 comparable metrics
Tampa is closest in size to St. Louis, Orlando, Charlotte, San Antonio. best in class on Cap rate proxy, Net migration, and behind on Unemployment.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Tampa is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Tampa | 3.19M | $71K | $306K | 4.30× | 5.0% | +42.8% | 6.92 | +0.70% | 4.6% |
St. Louis, MO-IL | 2.81M | $78K | $232K | 2.97× | 4.1% | +46.7% | 2.21 | -0.12% | 3.5% |
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL | 2.68M | $76K | $339K | 4.48× | 4.5% | +58.1% | 9.39 | +0.40% | 4.4% |
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC | 2.67M | $80K | $319K | 3.98× | 4.1% | +63.8% | 7.59 | +0.35% | — |
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX | 2.57M | $74K | $259K | 3.48× | 4.3% | +41.5% | 3.93 | +0.45% | 3.7% |
Pittsburgh, PA | 2.37M | $74K | $205K | 2.77× | 5.0% | +42.4% | 2.17 | -0.13% | 3.6% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
+22,311
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
+0.70% of metro population
13,822 from top origin
Tampa absorbed +22,311 net IRS returns — a strong inflow of +0.70% of population, the largest positive of any queue metro outside Phoenix. Top out-of-metro origins are all inside Florida (Polk, Miami-Dade, Orange) — Tampa is the second-largest FL metro catching FL households relocating in-state.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Hillsborough County, FL | 13,822 |
| Pinellas County, FL | 9,407 |
| Pasco County, FL | 7,831 |
| Polk County, FL | 2,974 |
| Miami-Dade County, FL | 2,365 |
| Orange County, FL | 2,360 |
Who lives in Tampa
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 42.2
- Owner-occupancy
- 67.6%
- Bachelor's+
- 34.0%
Tampa mature Midwest metro: Median age 42.2, 67.6% owner-occupancy 34.0% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 53.0% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $71,254
- Median age
- 42.2
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 34.0%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 67.6%
- Vacancy rate
- 12.7%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 53.0%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q1 2026 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026