Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
The most aggressive Sun Belt builder. Orlando has the highest 5-year HPI in the queue (+58.1%, beating Phoenix and Miami), the highest permits per 1,000 residents (9.39 — 25,156 TTM), and a workable cap rate proxy at 4.5%. YoY just barely flipped to −0.27% — but migration is still +10,712.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
4.48×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Florida
- 4.22×
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
burdened
Rent to income
31.3%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Florida
- 28.1%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
4.5%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Florida
- 4.4%+0.1
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%+0.2
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
steady
Net migration
+0.40%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Florida
- 0.83%
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%+0.36
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline accelerating
Permit pipeline
9.39
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Florida
- 8.03+1.36
- vs U.S.
- 3.49+5.90
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
4.4%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Florida
- 4.5%-0.1
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Orlando
Orlando is the most aggressive Sun Belt builder. Across 4 counties — Orange, Seminole, Osceola, and Lake — the metro packs 2.68 million residents with a household income of $75,611 (Census ACS) and a median home value of $338,500. The HUD Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom is $1,972. The House Price Index ran +58.1% over five years (FHFA HPI) — the highest 5-year run of any metro in the queue, beating Phoenix (+53.8%) and Miami (+55.3%).
The interesting fact is that Orlando is also the highest-permit metro per capita in the queue. 9.39 building permits per 1,000 residents — ahead of Phoenix's 7.99. Permit YoY is +21.9%. The 4-county footprint is unusually well-balanced for a Sun Belt metro:
- Orange County (1.43M pop, $358,300 median home value) leads with 11,722 permits TTM — Orlando proper, plus the Disney corridor (Lake Buena Vista, Apopka, Winter Garden). 8.2 per 1,000 — moderate.
- Osceola County (394K pop, $317,600 MHV) is the densest builder per capita at 16.5 per 1,000 — the highest exurb pace in the queue. Kissimmee, Celebration, the southern growth corridor.
- Lake County (387K pop, $287,900 MHV) adds 4,528 permits = 11.7 per 1,000 — Clermont, Leesburg, Tavares, the northern exurbs.
- Seminole County (471K pop, $357,300 MHV) only adds 2,427 permits = 5.2 per 1,000 — the more developed northern county with less raw land.
Orlando is in full Sun Belt expansion mode — all 4 counties build aggressively at the same time, no single dominant submarket.
What's changing: net IRS migration is +10,712 returns (IRS SOI) — strong, +0.40% of population. The top out-of-metro inflows are from Polk County (Lakeland) and Miami-Dade — Orlando is the central FL relief valve. The cap rate proxy sits at 4.5% — deal-by-deal, right at the national 4.4% and one of the few Tier 4 metros where the math actually works at the median. YoY HPI just barely flipped to −0.27% — the price has run ahead of demand, but only just. Unemployment is 4.4%, slightly above the national 4.0%. Inside Florida, Orlando ranks #6 of 22 for 5-year HPI — top quintile.
What does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow: Orlando is one of the few Tier 4 metros where the cap proxy at 4.5% works at the median. Underwrite Osceola (Kissimmee) and Lake (Clermont) where the median home values are $287K-$317K and the build pipeline is the strongest in the queue.
- If you're playing appreciation: The 5-year run is mostly priced in. Orlando beat the country by 24pp from 2020, but YoY just flipped negative. Look at the smaller central FL metros (Lakeland, Deltona) for the next leg of the cycle.
- If you already own here: Stay. Migration is still +10,712 (FL relief valve), permits are +21.9% YoY, and the cap proxy is workable. This is the rare Sun Belt metro where builders, migrants, and the math all still align.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+58.1%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
-0.3% YoY
$338,500 median home value
Orlando home prices climbed 58.1% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a steady appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change is negative (-0.3%), signaling the market is cooling.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Orlando's index ran from ~189 in early 2020 to ~299 in Q4 2025. The **+58.1% 5-year change** is the canonical figure (Q4 2020 → Q4 2025) — the **HIGHEST in the queue**, beating even Phoenix (+53.8%) and Miami (+55.3%).
- 02Orlando outpaced Florida by ~14pp — the smaller FL growth metros (Cape Coral, Naples) are the only ones running harder.
- 03U.S. metros climbed **+34.3%**. Orlando beat the country by 24pp — only Phoenix and Miami match this kind of overshoot.
- 04The most recent quarter is **−0.27% YoY** — just barely flipped negative. The price has run ahead of demand, but only just.
- 05Inside Florida, Orlando ranks **#6 of 22** for 5-year HPI — top quintile. Despite being the fastest builder, Orlando is not the fastest appreciator in FL.
Where the value tier sits — top 4 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orange County | $358,300 | $77,011 | 4.65× | moderate |
| Seminole County | $357,300 | $83,030 | 4.30× | moderate |
| Osceola County | $317,600 | $68,711 | 4.62× | moderate |
| Lake County | $287,900 | $69,956 | 4.12× | moderate |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,972
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
31.3% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 31.3% of their income — 8.0 points above the U.S. average (23.3%) 3.1 points above Florida (28.1%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,731 | $20.8K | 27.5% | moderate |
| 2 BR | $1,972 | $23.7K | 31.3% | rent-burdened |
| 3 BR | $2,476 | $29.7K | 39.3% | rent-burdened |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
4.4%
BLS LAUS · latest month
Orlando's labor market is softening, with unemployment running at 4.4% — 0.4 points above the U.S. metros average (4.0%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
4.4%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$75,611
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
25,156
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+21.9% year-over-year
9.39 permits per 1,000 residents
Orlando pulled 25,156 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a meaningful jump 21.9% year-over-year. That works out to 9.39 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
13,740
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
164
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
11,252
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 4 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Orange County leads with 11,722 permits TTM** — 47% of the metro's 25,156-unit total. Orlando proper plus Disney-area Lake Buena Vista, Apopka, Winter Garden.
- 02Osceola County (394K pop) follows with **6,479 permits** — Kissimmee, Celebration, the southern exurbs at **16.5 per 1,000**, the highest exurb pace in the queue.
- 03Lake County (387K pop) adds **4,528 permits** — northern exurbs of Clermont, Leesburg, Tavares.
- 04Seminole County (471K pop) only adds **2,427 permits** — the more developed northern county, less raw land available.
- 05Orlando runs **9.39 permits per 1,000 residents** — the **HIGHEST in the queue**, even ahead of Phoenix (7.99). **Permit YoY is +21.9%**.
How to read the map
- 01**Osceola County (south) is the densest at 16.5 per 1,000** — the highest exurb-pace in the queue. Kissimmee and Celebration absorb the bulk of growth.
- 02Lake County (northwest) at 11.7 per 1,000 — the second-densest. The northern exurbs are nearly as hot.
- 03Orange County (Orlando proper) at 8.2 per 1,000 — moderate by metro-core standards but still well above the national 3.49.
- 04Seminole County (north) at 5.2 per 1,000 — the slowest of the 4 counties. Already developed.
- 05**The build pattern is everywhere.** Unlike Phoenix (concentrated in 2 counties) or Boston (constrained), Orlando builds aggressively in all 4 counties simultaneously. The metro is in full Sun Belt expansion mode.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orange County | 1,427,403 | $77,011 | $358,300 | 11,722 | +53.3% |
| 2 | Seminole County | 471,321 | $83,030 | $357,300 | 2,427 | +11.3% |
| 3 | Osceola County | 393,745 | $68,711 | $317,600 | 6,479 | |
| 4 | Lake County | 386,829 | $69,956 | $287,900 | 4,528 | +1.2% |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Orlando by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Best in 1 of 2 comparable metrics
Orlando is closest in size to San Antonio, Charlotte, St. Louis, Pittsburgh. best in class on Permit pipeline.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Orlando is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Orlando | 2.68M | $76K | $339K | 4.48× | 4.5% | +58.1% | 9.39 | +0.40% | 4.4% |
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX | 2.57M | $74K | $259K | 3.48× | 4.3% | +41.5% | 3.93 | +0.45% | 3.7% |
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC | 2.67M | $80K | $319K | 3.98× | 4.1% | +63.8% | 7.59 | +0.35% | — |
St. Louis, MO-IL | 2.81M | $78K | $232K | 2.97× | 4.1% | +46.7% | 2.21 | -0.12% | 3.5% |
Pittsburgh, PA | 2.37M | $74K | $205K | 2.77× | 5.0% | +42.4% | 2.17 | -0.13% | 3.6% |
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV | 2.27M | $74K | $401K | 5.43× | 3.4% | +52.3% | 5.87 | +0.45% | 5.2% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
+10,712
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
+0.40% of metro population
19,067 from top origin
Orlando absorbed +10,712 net IRS returns — a steady +0.40% of population. The top out-of-metro origins are inside Florida (Polk County, Miami-Dade) — Orlando is the central FL relief valve, catching inflows from both Tampa and Miami corridors.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Orange County, FL | 19,067 |
| Seminole County, FL | 7,230 |
| Osceola County, FL | 6,747 |
| Polk County, FL | 5,202 |
| Miami-Dade County, FL | 3,566 |
| Broward County, FL | 3,372 |
Who lives in Orlando
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 38.3
- Owner-occupancy
- 63.2%
- Bachelor's+
- 35.8%
Orlando relatively young Midwest metro: Median age 38.3, 63.2% owner-occupancy 35.8% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 55.8% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $75,611
- Median age
- 38.3
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 35.8%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 63.2%
- Vacancy rate
- 12.1%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 55.8%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026