Jacksonville, FL
Florida's sustainable Sun Belt cousin. Jacksonville ran HPI +54.9% over 5 years (right between Phoenix and Miami) with the strongest migration of any sub-2M metro in the queue (+10,983 net IRS, +0.68% of population). 12,727 permits TTM (7.89/1k, third in queue after Orlando and Austin). Cap rate proxy 4.19% borderline workable. Did not overshoot like Tampa or Orlando — still growing.
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
4.01×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Florida
- 4.22×-0.21
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
moderate
Rent to income
25.8%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Florida
- 28.1%-2.3
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
4.2%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Florida
- 4.4%
- vs U.S.
- 4.4%
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
steady
Net migration
+0.68%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Florida
- 0.83%
- vs U.S.
- 0.04%+0.64
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
pipeline growing
Permit pipeline
7.89
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Florida
- 8.03
- vs U.S.
- 3.49+4.40
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
4.6%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Florida
- 4.5%
- vs U.S.
- 4.0%
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Section index — click any row to jump
What the data says about Jacksonville
Jacksonville is Florida's sustainable Sun Belt cousin. Across 5 counties — Duval at the core plus St. Johns, Clay, Nassau, Baker — the metro packs 1.61 million residents with a household income of $77,013 (Census ACS) and a median home value of $308,900. The HUD Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom is $1,658. The House Price Index ran +54.9% over five years (FHFA HPI) — right between Phoenix (+53.8%) and Miami (+55.3%). Sun Belt-tier appreciation without the headline hype.
The interesting fact is that Jacksonville did not overshoot. Tampa, Orlando, and Phoenix have all flipped to negative or near-zero YoY HPI; Jacksonville is still positive at +1.82% — modest but steady. The metro absorbed the post-COVID demand without the explosive bubble-and-correction cycle. Inside Florida, Jacksonville ranks #12 of 22 for 5-year HPI — middle of the pack. The smaller Florida metros (Cape Coral, Naples, Lakeland) ran harder. The cap rate proxy is 4.19% — borderline workable, just below the 4.4% national.
The 5-county geometry has the most concentrated affluent exurb in the queue:
- Duval County (996K pop, $274,900 MHV) leads with 5,823 permits TTM = 5.85 per 1,000 — Jacksonville proper. 46% of the metro pipeline.
- St. Johns County (279K pop, $457,600 MHV) is the high-velocity exurb at 4,620 permits = 16.6 per 1,000 — Nocatee, World Golf Village, Ponte Vedra Beach. The most expensive county and one of the densest exurb builders in the queue.
- Nassau County (92K pop, $351,100 MHV) builds 907 permits = 9.91 per 1,000 — Yulee, Amelia Island, the northeast affluent coast.
- Clay County (220K pop, $281,500 MHV) builds 1,260 permits = 5.74 per 1,000 — Orange Park, Fleming Island. The southwest workforce suburbs.
- Baker County adds 117 permits — small rural county.
Jacksonville runs 7.89 permits per 1,000 residents — third in the queue after Orlando (9.39) and Charlotte (7.59). Permit YoY is +0.4% — basically flat. The supply pipeline plateaued at a high level. The 72% single-family mix is typical Sun Belt.
What's changing: net IRS migration is +10,983 returns (IRS SOI) — strong, +0.68% of population. The highest growth rate of any sub-2M metro in the queue. The migration is intact even though the price index has slowed. Unemployment is 4.6%, above the national 4.0%. Owner-occupancy 66.3%, bachelor's-or-higher 35.1%.
What does an investor do?
- If you're hunting cash flow: Duval County is the only workable option at 4.19% cap proxy. Westside, Northside, and the Arlington area for SFR around $200K-$280K. Skip St. Johns and Nassau — those are appreciation plays at $350K-$460K.
- If you're playing appreciation: St. Johns is the affluent growth pocket — the densest builder, the highest-income buyers, the strongest school districts. Nassau (Amelia Island, Yulee) is the second tier. The migration tailwind is structural.
- If you already own here: Hold. The migration is positive, the cycle did not overshoot, the cap math is workable in the right sub-county. Jacksonville is the Florida metro that should be on more shortlists — Sun Belt growth without the Sun Belt correction.
Where prices are and where they've been
FHFA House Price Index — repeat-sales index across the metro, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked against the Indiana metros average and U.S. metros average.
5-year price appreciation
+54.9%
FHFA HPI · Q1 2020 → Q4 2025
+1.8% YoY
$308,900 median home value
Jacksonville home prices climbed 54.9% over the last 5 years according to the FHFA repeat-sales index — a steady appreciation pace for a Midwest metro of this size. The 1-year change has cooled to 1.8%, signaling the post-2022 surge has unwound into steady-state appreciation.
See the chart below for how the metro's appreciation curve stacks up against the Indiana metros average and the U.S. metros average. The gap between the metro and the national line is the "catch-up" or "lag" signal — and the slope tells you whether the gap is widening or closing.
How to read it
- 01Jacksonville ran **+54.9% over five years** — right between Phoenix (+53.8%) and Miami (+55.3%). Sun Belt-tier appreciation without the headline hype.
- 02Inside Florida, Jacksonville ranks **#12 of 22** for 5-year HPI — middle of the pack. Fort Myers, Naples, and the smaller Florida metros all ran harder.
- 03**Recent YoY is +1.82%** — modest, slowing but still positive. Jacksonville did NOT flip negative like Tampa, Orlando, or Phoenix. It is digesting the move at a more sustainable pace.
- 04U.S. metros ran **+34.3%** over the same window. Jacksonville outperformed by ~21pp — a meaningful but not extreme overshoot.
- 05The takeaway: Jacksonville is **Florida's sustainable Sun Belt**. Strong appreciation, healthy migration, no overshoot. The cycle is more durable here than in the headline FL metros.
Where the value tier sits — top 5 counties by home value
| County | Median home value | Median HHI | Price-to-income | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Johns County | $457,600 | $106,169 | 4.31× | moderate |
| Nassau County | $351,100 | $88,900 | 3.95× | moderate |
| Clay County | $281,500 | $86,094 | 3.27× | moderate |
| Duval County | $274,900 | $68,447 | 4.02× | moderate |
| Baker County | $225,000 | $70,833 | 3.18× | moderate |
How to read the FHFA House Price Index
FHFA HPI is a repeat-sales index — it tracks the price change of the same properties over time, smoothing out new construction and luxury transactions. It's built from the mortgage data the GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) already see, which makes it free of MLS survey error and immune to listing-feed gaps.
- 01Repeat-sales method. Tracks the same properties over time, so new construction and luxury transactions don't skew the trend.
- 02Federally sourced. Built from GSE mortgage data — no MLS survey error, no commercial license required to publish.
- 03Slope, not level. Watch the slope of the line, not the absolute index value — a steepening curve is a more reliable buy signal than the level.
The rent ladder
HUD Fair Market Rent by bedroom count, sized against this metro's median household income and benchmarked vs Indiana and the U.S.
Typical 2-bedroom rent
$1,658
/ month · HUD FMR FY 2026
25.8% of median HHI
A typical 2-bedroom in costs the median household 25.8% of their income — 2.6 points above the U.S. average (23.3%) 2.3 points below Florida (28.1%).
HUD calls anything above 30% "rent-burdened." This metro sits comfortably under that line, which means tenants can absorb modest rent increases — and landlords have headroom on rent hikes before pushing tenants out of the market.
Fair Market Rent — by bedroom count
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,382 | $16.6K | 21.5% | comfortable |
| 2 BR | $1,658 | $19.9K | 25.8% | moderate |
| 3 BR | $2,043 | $24.5K | 31.8% | rent-burdened |
Why HUD Fair Market Rent matters
FMR is HUD's 40th-percentile rent estimate by bedroom count — refreshed every fiscal year, sourced from Census surveys (not commercial listing data), and used as the cap for Section 8 voucher payments. Three things investors should know:
- 01Defensible benchmark. Federal source, no commercial license required to publish or compare against.
- 02Section 8 ceiling. A property at or below FMR is voucher-eligible — government-paid rent at the FMR cap.
- 03Conservative estimate. 40th percentile means more than half of actual market rents in the metro come in higher.
Labor market direction
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — LAUS (unemployment) + CES (nonfarm employment), benchmarked against the U.S. average.
Unemployment rate
4.6%
BLS LAUS · latest month
Jacksonville's labor market is softening, with unemployment running at 4.6% — 0.6 points above the U.S. metros average (4.0%).
For an investor, tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, and lower vacancy. The trend chart below shows how the metro's unemployment has moved over the last 30 months.
Unemployment rate
4.6%
Nonfarm jobs
—
Median household income
$77,013
ACS 5-year
How to read the labor market
Two BLS series tell you almost everything you need about a metro's labor market: LAUS (unemployment, refreshed monthly) and CES (nonfarm payroll counts, refreshed monthly). LAUS is the tightness signal; CES is the size and direction signal.
- 01Unemployment is rental demand. Tighter labor markets mean higher wages and lower vacancy — landlords have pricing power when employers are competing for workers.
- 02YoY change is the trend signal. A negative pp YoY change means the labor market tightened over the last year — usually a leading indicator for rent growth.
- 03Nonfarm growth is supply absorption. Positive nonfarm payroll growth absorbs new housing supply and supports the rent + price trajectory together.
What's being built
U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey — trailing 12 months, broken out by structure type, with the YoY change as the directional signal.
Total permits TTM
12,727
Census BPS · trailing 12 months
+0.4% year-over-year
7.89 permits per 1,000 residents
Jacksonville pulled 12,727 building permits over the trailing 12 months, a modest expansion 0.4% year-over-year. That works out to 7.89 permits per 1,000 residents, vs the U.S. metros average of 3.49.
Single-family vs multifamily mix matters: 5+ unit permits are lumpy (developers file for entire projects at once), while single-family permits are smoother and more reliable as a demand signal. The chart below breaks out the monthly mix.
Single family
9,148
trailing 12 months
2–4 unit
217
trailing 12 months
5+ unit
3,362
trailing 12 months
How to read the supply pipeline
Census BPS publishes building permit counts every month at the county level, by structure type. Single-family permits are the smooth signal — they reflect ongoing builder demand. 5+ unit permits are lumpy and project-level — one apartment approval can spike a month.
- 01Permits per 1,000 residents. The size-adjusted comparison number. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its population; below 2 means supply is tight.
- 02YoY change is the direction. Year-over-year change in TTM permits tells you whether builders are leaning in or pulling back. Watch this number for trend reversals.
- 03Mix matters for cap rates. Heavy 5+ unit permitting tends to compress cap rates; single-family-dominated pipelines preserve them.
All 5 counties, ranked by population
Census Bureau (population, ACS demographics) + Census Building Permits Survey.
How to read it
- 01**Duval County leads with 5,823 permits TTM** — Jacksonville proper. The largest county by population (996K) and 46% of the metro pipeline.
- 02**St. Johns County** (St. Augustine, Ponte Vedra Beach, Nocatee) is the high-velocity exurb at **4,620 permits = 16.6 per 1,000** — the densest exurb pace in the metro and one of the highest in the queue. The most expensive county at $457,600 MHV.
- 03Clay County (Orange Park, Fleming Island, Middleburg) builds **1,260 permits = 5.74 per 1,000** — the southwest suburban band.
- 04Nassau County (Yulee, Fernandina Beach, Amelia Island) builds **907 permits = 9.91 per 1,000** — the northeast affluent coastal county.
- 05Jacksonville runs **7.89 permits per 1,000 residents** — third in the queue after Orlando (9.39) and Charlotte (7.59). **Permit YoY is +0.4%** — basically flat. The supply pipeline plateaued at a high level.
How to read the map
- 01**St. Johns County (south) is the densest at 16.6 per 1,000** — Nocatee, World Golf Village, Ponte Vedra. Affluent buyers drive the pace.
- 02Nassau County (northeast) at **9.91 per 1,000** — Yulee, Amelia Island. Coastal exurban growth.
- 03Clay County (southwest) at **5.74 per 1,000** — Orange Park, Fleming Island. Suburban single-family.
- 04Duval County (the core) at **5.85 per 1,000** — high for a metro core, helped by greenfield expansion in southeast Jacksonville and the Northside.
- 05Baker County (far west) at **4.18 per 1,000** — small rural county, modest pace.
- 06**The pattern shifts northeast and southeast.** Most growth is happening in the affluent coastal counties (St. Johns, Nassau) plus the Duval Southside. The Westside and Clay are the workforce belt.
| # | County | Population | Median HHI | Home value | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duval County | 995,708 | $68,447 | $274,900 | 5,823 | +0.5% |
| 2 | St. Johns County | 278,722 | $106,169 | $457,600 | 4,620 | +0.4% |
| 3 | Clay County | 219,650 | $86,094 | $281,500 | 1,260 | |
| 4 | Nassau County | 91,538 | $88,900 | $351,100 | 907 | +6.1% |
| 5 | Baker County | 27,969 | $70,833 | $225,000 | 117 | +4.5% |
Similar metros nationally
5 metros closest to Jacksonville by population and median household income — head-to-head on the metrics that matter for an investor.
Peer set
5
metros nearest by population + HHI
Best in 1 of 2 comparable metrics
Jacksonville is closest in size to Milwaukee, Providence, Virginia Beach, Oklahoma City. best in class on Net migration.
The table below ranks every metric — green cells mark the best value in the column, rust cells mark the worst. Jacksonville is highlighted as the focal row.
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | Home value | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Migration | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
★Jacksonville | 1.61M | $77K | $309K | 4.01× | 4.2% | +54.9% | 7.89 | +0.68% | 4.6% |
Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI | 1.57M | $76K | $284K | 3.71× | 3.7% | +55.3% | 2.01 | -0.14% | — |
Providence-Warwick, RI-MA | 1.67M | $86K | $386K | 4.51× | 5.2% | +61.0% | 1.55 | -0.02% | 4.7% |
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC | 1.80M | $81K | $318K | 3.95× | 4.2% | +50.3% | 2.13 | -0.06% | — |
Oklahoma City, OK | 1.43M | $70K | $215K | 3.05× | 4.5% | +45.7% | 5.90 | +0.18% | 3.6% |
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN | 1.99M | $82K | $377K | 4.57× | 3.6% | +58.3% | 9.56 | +0.31% | 2.9% |
How to read this comparison
Peer metros are picked by population + median household income — the closest five matches nationally — so the comparison is apples-to-apples on size and economic class. Sun Belt entrants like Las Vegas and Nashville are included when they fall in range, which is why this peer set spans both the Midwest and the Sun Belt.
- 01Green = best in column. The cell with the most-favorable value for that metric, accounting for whether higher or lower is better.
- 02Rust = worst in column. The cell with the least-favorable value. Combined with the green markers, this is your at-a-glance "where does my metro win and where does it lose."
- 03Cap proxy is the yield lens. Cap rate proxy = (FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ median home value. A first-pass yield filter, not an underwriting number — but it puts the peer set on a single comparable scale.
Where people are moving in from
IRS Statistics of Income — Tax Year 2022. Excludes intra-metro suburban churn.
Net migration
+10,983
tax returns · IRS SOI · TY 2022
+0.68% of metro population
8,067 from top origin
Jacksonville absorbed +10,983 net IRS returns — a strong +0.68% of population, the highest growth rate of any metro under 2 million in the queue. The biggest origins are intra-Florida (Duval keeps its own residents) plus Georgia and the Northeast. Jacksonville is the Florida metro that did NOT overshoot.
The IRS data lags by ~2 years (households file taxes the year after they move), but it's the only nationwide county-to-county migration data sourced from administrative records, not survey estimates. The table below shows the top origin counties — the gravitational sources of new residents.
Top origin counties — where new residents are coming from
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Duval County, FL | 8,067 |
| Clay County, FL | 3,442 |
| St. Johns County, FL | 3,067 |
| Broward County, FL | 1,133 |
| Miami-Dade County, FL | 1,009 |
| Orange County, FL | 926 |
Who lives in Jacksonville
U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · 2019–2023 vintage.
Who lives here
- Median age
- 39.1
- Owner-occupancy
- 66.3%
- Bachelor's+
- 35.1%
Jacksonville relatively young Midwest metro: Median age 39.1, 66.3% owner-occupancy 35.1% holding a bachelor's degree or higher. Stable, educated, and mostly homeowner-driven.
The catch: 50.9% of renter households are rent-burdened (paying 30%+ of income on rent) — high enough to flag as a constraint on rent growth even though the headline rent-to-income ratio looks comfortable.
- Median household income
- $77,013
- Median age
- 39.1
- Bachelor's+ degree
- 35.1%
- Owner-occupancy rate
- 66.3%
- Vacancy rate
- 9.9%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 50.9%
Data sources
| Metric | Source | Type | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home prices | FHFA — House Price Index | Index | Q4 2025 |
| Fair market rents | HUD — Fair Market Rents | Administrative | FY 2026 |
| Unemployment rate | BLS — Local Area Unemployment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Nonfarm employment | BLS — Current Employment Statistics | Survey | Dec 2025 |
| Building permits | Census — Building Permits Survey | Survey | Mar 2026 TTM |
| Migration flows | IRS — Statistics of Income, Migration Data | Administrative | Tax Year 2022 |
| Demographics | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
| Household income | Census — American Community Survey 5-Year | Survey | 2019–2023 |
Page last refreshed: April 9, 2026